May 2009

Our bullish benchmark is still _____, a tick above an unimposing but nonetheless important peak that was created April 1 on the way down. However, if a test of resistance at $1000 lies shortly ahead for the bull cycle begun in mid-April, the futures should

A minor downtrend from Friday's high pointed as low as _____, but as of 1 a.m. EDT sellers had not even achieved the Hidden Pivot midpoint, 874.00. This hinted of a firm opening Monday morning even though the futures were trading below last

Gloomy forecasts have generally held sway at the Committee for Monetary Research and Education's annual spring dinner, but this is the only time we can recall when there were no optimists on the dais bold enough to challenge a consensus now gloomier, probably, than at any time since the 1930s. Jim Grant's off-the-cuff talk was about as sunny as the evening's presentations got, and even he was unwilling to allow much more than a ray of hope that everything would somehow turn out all right. Bob Hoye, on the other hand, was unequivocally bearish:  "The chances of anyone fixing this mess," he told the crowd, "are literally zero." But the scariest talk of the night came from Bill Beach, director of the Heritage Foundation's Center for Data Analysis.  If you find today's economic news too depressing to imbibe, he said, "things are even darker than they seem." A self-described data junkie who loves to delve into the statistical facts behind the headlines, Beach says today's economic numbers are so appalling that he's "scared to death" to look at them.  What is most extraordinary about these times, he said, is that government at all levels has never been so willing to take on more debt. As a result, said Beach, our children will be paying back interest and principal for many, many years to come. How much do we owe?  Beach asked one person in the room to stand up.  That one person -- one among a hundred in the banquet room of New York City's Union League Club that night - could be said to represent the $182 billion required to bail out just one insurer, AIG. But if you add in the expenses the federal government will incur maintaining Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid over the next 20 years, you'd

Night action was practically flatlining a little after 1 a.m., offering no hint of how DaBoyz might be fixing to cheat widows and pensioners on the opening. We'll take another look after the bell, since something may have developed by then.  _______ UPDATE (10:05 a.m.):  Nothing -- and I mean absolutely nothing -- did happen, making this a great day to take off.

The September 84-May 84 call spread that we are long could have been exited yesterday for as much as 4.60, yielding a theoretical gain of $310, since our adjusted cost basis on the four spreads was 3.82. (That includes a loss of about $150 on a September 76 that we also held.) If you still hold a partial position, exit at will today -- presumably at a profit, since May time premium will be melting away to zero with each tick of the clock.

The _____ target flagged here earlier remains valid, but please note that the futures are pulling back from within 3o cents of a lesser rally target at 59.77 that was reached earlier in

It would be hard to say whether the tepid rally of the last three weeks has been more aggravating for bulls or bears, but the former should continue to use _____ as a go-ahead signal, since that's what it would take to turn

Shortly after midnight, there weren't enough clues to try and second-guess Friday madness --only a minor downtrend with a flimsy-looking target at _____. Because it is derived from a pattern with a "sausage B," I wouldn't suggest that night owls go too far out on a limb to

I’m in New York once again for the annual spring meeting of the CMRE, the Committee for Monetary Reform and Education. This group attracts men and women from the investment community who share your editor’s disdain for fiat money and other falsehoods promoted by Big Government. Here’s the line-up of speakers at tonight’s dinner, along with program notes on each:   James Grant, publisher of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer.. On the record for the importance of The Gold Standard, Grant suggests Mr. Bernanke be asked to explain how the central-banking methods of the paper-dollar era represent any improvement, either in practice or theory, over the rigor, elegance, simplicity and predictability of the gold standard. (WSJ 12/20/08, Is the Medicine Worse Than the Illness?) Grant is incomparable with his knowledge of history as well as current issues..)     The Honorable Andrus Ansip, Prime Minister of Estonia. First elected in 2005 and reelected in 2007, Mr. Ansip has also worked in business and banking sectors. Before becoming Prime Minister, he served as Minister of Economy and Communications. A former Soviet-bloc nation, Estonia’s economy is ranked as one of the most free in the world, a remarkable feat for a former communist country. He has been a global leader for the Flat Tax movement. He recently led his country in a successful defense against a Russian computer based cyber attack thus winning the world’s first cyber war. His agenda is to continue Estonia’s policy of tight fiscal control, support for an unrestricted market economy, with markets open to the outside world and strong GDP growth.   Jack Willoughby, Editor, Barron’s, will speak on how “Europe’s Growing Crisis Puts the Fed at Risk”. Willoughby observes Europe’s commercial banks have more exposure to wounded emerging markets than U.S. counterparts. He contends one can debate