May 2009

The futures have bounced from a low that fell 1.25 points shy of a ____ midpoint support, hinting that bulls will be in charge in the early going Wednesday. The support will remain viable

Let me add some technical heft to the observation in today's commentary that the Gold Bugs Index looks ready to break out. Specifically, HUI appears bound for a Hidden Pivot target at _____ that lies just above a key September peak. The implication is that we are about to see the creation of the third bullish impulse leg of weekly

The scene at the Hard Assets Investment Conference in New York City looks pretty subdued this year -- an encouraging sign, since it will be time to exit precious metals when this annual event reaches the frothy stage.  For now, though, frothy it is not. I'm told that there are only half as many exhibitors this year as last, continuing a pattern of decline that began a couple of years ago (when, need I remind you, gold quotes were nearly 40 percent lower).  Mining and energy companies with booths at the show were oh-so-eager to chat up anyone who walked by, and at times there were more company reps in the aisles than there were visitors.  I don't mean to suggest that this event was a dud -- only that it reflects the bland consensus on bullion that obtains outside of hard-money circles. Let me repeat myself:  This is quite bullish, to the extent that multitudes of investors yet to be persuaded and who stayed away in droves represent potential demand for nuggets yet to be mined and ingots to be fabricated. I should also say that the conference itself, at the Marriott Marquis, was first-rate in all of its details. The line-up of speakers represents a who's who of the precious metals world, as well as newsmakers from other walks  of life. Harry Markopolos, the guy who tried so hard to rat out Bernie Madoff to the SEC, gave the "Insider's Story."  Jay Taylor, the expert's expert on mining shares, shared his considerable expertise.  And Bob Prechter delivered Monday's keynote: "Using the Wave Principle to Forecast Gold and Silver Prices". Peter Schiff spoke on the collapse of the U.S. bubble economy and what it means  for investors, and Amity Shlaes, author of a superb new book about the Great Depression, shed light on the government's efforts to repair the financial crisis. HUI Near a Breakout There were also presentations by companies both big and small from the world of

I've filed a report on the Hard Asset Investment Conference and am about to head out to dinner and a show with friends. Touts for Wednesday will be out later tonight, around midnight, but due to a quirk in my publishing software, the commentary itself may not appear on this site until 8 p.m. EDT.

From just above a predicted low at 119^10, the futures have now rallied to within a whisker of our first important rally target, 121^28. Someone in the chat room reported booking a $400 profit on a long position taken near the lows, but it would have taken unnecessary guts to have

Will homes maintain their value best in expensive neighborhoods, where homeowners presumably are not under the gun to sell or even to make mortgage payments?  I've argued the opposite - that in percentage terms, high-end homes are likely to fall the hardest as the nation's real estate crash runs its course over the next 4-5 years. While it is true that the wealthy, most of whom own their homes outright, do not face jeopardy from mortgage lenders, they could find themselves on the ropes for other reasons, including the failure of a business or devastating investment losses. That could easily force the sale -- for starters -- of a vacation home, which would put price pressure on all of the other homes in the neighborhood. Keep in mind that prices are set at the margin and that $2 million homes in a high-end development all become $1.4 million homes overnight if just one of the homeowners is forced to sell in a hurry. There is an additional factor working against valuations of high-end residential properties, namely the relative lack of demand, especially in hard times, for custom homes priced above $1 million. Such properties are not in nearly the same demand as 2- and 3-bedroom bungalows, nor do they attract anywhere near the number of bargain hunters. In fact, the market for custom homes with $250,000  kitchens is far more limited than the market for basic homes geared to the broad middle class. 'Bargains' in New Mexico The following note from a subscriber reveals how badly the high end has been hit in, for one, New Mexico:  "My wife and I have been contemplating moving to Placitas, an upscale area between Albuquerque and Santa Fe. A Realtor I have been working with called me with two smoking deals: 1) A

The rally is coming off a low that exceeded an important midpoint support at 83.45, so our expectations are low. That said, I should note that my friend Bob Hoye is now bullish on the dollar and thinks that its strength in the weeks and months ahead will be a significant factor in the next, hellish phase of economic

The September 84-May 84 spread that we hold four times is an easy exit right now for around 4.20, which would yield a theoretical gain of $160. That would hardly be worth the effort, so I'll suggest waiting until you can come away with at least 4.40, for a profit of about $240

Natural Gas futures have been on quite a tear lately, but the rally will face its first challenge in the form of a Hidden Pivot resistance at _____(basis July). The pivot lies not far above current levels and should