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COMMENTARY for Saturday
TODAY'S ACTION for Friday
Rick's Picks for Friday
If 70.93 has not been exceeded first, you can bottom-fish 67.69 with an initial stop-loss as tight a 10 cents, good through Tuesday. That’s the Hidden Pivot midpoint of the downtrend begun from 72.85 on June 19. Switch to a 25-cent trailing stop if 70.20 is reach on the bounce. Minimum objective: 70.65. _______ UPDATE: 70.93 was exceeded overnight, negating the trade. The new high created a new Hidden Pivot support at 68.05, but it is not suitable for bottom-fishing because it coincides with a visually important low made a couple of days earlier.
TLT is stealing up on an important resistance at 96.08. That’s a Hidden Pivot clearly visible on the hourly chart, and if it is exceeded on a closing basis, that would be telegraphing still more strength in the long bond. For now, we should regard 96.08 as a minimum objective, implying that long-term yields have further to fall before they get sticky.
The futures looked primedddddd for a thrust to 955.40 at yesterday’s close, although, as noted in the chat room, there are doubts about the sausage-y nature of the price pattern yielding that target. Even so, the fact that all three price coordinates — A, B and C — are single-bar beauties seems reason enough to overlook the pattern’s flaw and to simply go with appealing look of it. If this analysis is correct, crucial resistance lies at 941.50, the target’s midpoint sibling, and any pop above that number will be telegraphing a further rally of at least $14.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
SIDE BETS for Friday
In night trading Thursday, Da Sleazeballs lacked the guts to push the futures above supply piled near 920 earlier in the week. In any case, a print today exceeding 924.25 would probably touch off a short-covering stampede that will carry into next week.
The rally begun on Tuesday from 13.595 looks like it will get to 14.255 before serious resistance impedes. We’d need to see a little better than that — specificially, a print at 14.460 — to be convinced this bull cyle has legs.
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Rick’s Picks Weekend Edition
by Stephanie DeMaria on June 27, 2009 12:01 am GMT
An Ingenious Plan to Pay All Debts
With the U.S. sinking hopelessly into a black hole of debt, and households facing an avalanche of tax hikes that will at best postpone the nation’s day of bankruptcy, we are all hard-pressed at this point to see a way to a happy ending. Lo, along comes an anonymous e-mail that describes a way to solve everyone’s debt problems painlessly. If you think the plan can work…
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Shorts Back Away, Letting Stocks Fall
A few more days like yesterday, and bears could be pardoned for feeling a little cocky. By simply keeping their cool Sunday night, they left DaBoyz with precious little buying power when stocks began to trade Monday morning. The result was a 200-point decline to start the week. That’s even worse than last Monday’s step-step-stumble out of the gate, which primed the Dow Industrials for a 187-point decline that day. The mood on Wall Street has definitely changed, and nowhere is this more evident than in the failure of the world-class…
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Lemmings Stoke Flight to ‘Quality’
It takes some getting used to whenever the phrase “flight to quality” pops up in print or on the business shows these days. Supposedly, that is what has been driving Treasury Bond prices sharply higher since June 11, when futures contracts on 30-Year U.S. Treasurys bottomed at 111^21. That equates to a yield of about 4.84 percent. Yesterday the same contract settled at 117^11, so eager were buyers, evidently, to lock in 30-year rates of…
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Even After Failures, Fed Fever Lingers
The markets displayed disturbing symptoms of Fed-itis yesterday, spasming up and down even though the central bank did nothing even remotely interesting, let alone earth-shattering. Monetary policy was left unchanged, which is the only thing that could have happened. To say the markets overreacted begs an explanation as to why. We can only infer that there are still many investors who cling to the notion that the central bank can jump-start an economy in the throes of a debt deflation by encouraging more borrowing. They might as well put their faith in lunar cycles; for if easy money were capable of rejuvenating the financial system, then why has an estimated $13 trillion of stimulus produced no decisive upturn, nor barely even a blip in a still-deflating housing market?
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Q2 Finale Offers Bears No Respite
The short-squeeze mania that sent stocks blithely higher yesterday reminded us that shares are likely to remain erratically buoyant at least until the end of the second quarter. “Rebalancing” has been the name of the game since the bear rally began in early March, and portfolio managers are unlikely to alter their allocation strategy with less than a week to go before they get their final “grades” for the quarter. Meanwhile, if there was any doubt about the aggressive institutional tilt toward shares during Q2, they were refuted by a friend of ours who recently moved his wealth management business from one brokerage house to another after being a star at the former for more than 30 years.
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