If the futures make it down to 1403.25, that’s a Hidden Pivot support that will be well worth bottom-fishing. An initial stop-loss as tight as 1402.25 can be used, but switch to a 2.50-point trailing stop if the expected bounce hits 1411.00. Minimum price objective: 1416.50. _______ UPDATE: The futures went higher, showing more strength than the broad averages while denying us a cheap entry opportunity.
From the monthly archives:
June 2009
If the E-Mini chart was human — which, in a way, it is — I’d have to keep holding a mirror under its nose to make sure it was still alive. Nonetheless, I still see a descent to at least 879.50 as both logical and likely, followed by a second wave of selling that hits 869.50. The latter number, a Hidden Pivot, is where I’d suggest bottom-fishing, using a three-tick stop-loss. Alternatively, and so that we don’t get caught unawares by a turn from somewhere above our targets, use 898.25 as a bullish trigger. _______ UPDATE (2:53 p.m.): A rally driven by the Fed-watching obsessions of the moment went against the forecast, but it was easily identifiable as a fraud, since even on the 15-minute chart there were no impulse legs to reckon. The high reached 906.50, but I”d suggest going back to sleep until such time as 925.00 is hit, since that’s what it would take to turn the lowly 15-minute chart bullish.
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I expect sellers to push the Gold Miners ETF down to at least 34.10 before it turns around. If the opportunity arises, we’ll attempt bottom-fishing there.
If the futures close beneath a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 1.3792, my minimum downside objective for the near term, look for the selling to continue to at least 1.3577.
There’s a subtle but promising Hidden Pivot support at 13.260 where you could try bottom-fishing today with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks. That number can serve as a mininum downside objective for the near term, but if it’s decisively breached brace for more slippage over the near term to as low as 12.790.
With gold futures approaching a tradable turn, we can try bottom-fishing in this vehicle by bidding 3.10 for two August 89 calls (GLDHK) . That would be an attractive price if the stock dips down to 88.87, a Hidden Pivot support, before turning around. You can pay a dime more if the calls are out of reach. ______ UPDATE: GLD is hanging tough above 90, so we’ll put this trade aside for now.
The futures have fallen to within $2 of the 911.30 pivot we were using as a minimum downside objective for the short term, but in off-hours trading late Monday night they appeared capable of pushing the support aside and continuing down to 907.30. I’ll recommend bottom-fishing there with a minimum 0.40 stop-loss, but if it’s hit we should infer more downside to at least 903.80, a Hidden Pivot that can also be bottom-fished with a very tight stop-loss. Both targets are shown in the accompanying chart.
In after-hours trading the futures were stalled at midpoint resistance, 116^14. If they get past it, however, a Hidden Pivot at 119^05 would be in play, and with it the potential to kick the hourly chart into high gear. Please note that a rally achieving 119^05 would have exceeded a total of three prior peaks, including two “externals,” signaling a move of at least three to four weeks’ duration. Once above 119^05, a path would be open to around 122.
Lemmings Stoke Flight to ‘Quality’
by Rick Ackerman on June 24, 2009 1:13 am GMT · 9 comments
It takes some getting used to whenever the phrase “flight to quality” pops up in print or on the business shows these days. Supposedly, that is what has been driving Treasury Bond prices sharply higher since June 11, when futures contracts on 30-Year U.S. Treasurys bottomed at 111^21. That equates to a yield of about 4.84 percent. Yesterday the same contract settled at 117^11, so eager were buyers, evidently, to lock in 30-year rates of » Read the full article