June 2009

Shorts Back Away, Letting Stocks Fall

– Posted in: Free

A few more days like yesterday, and bears could be pardoned for feeling a little cocky.  By simply keeping their cool Sunday night, they left DaBoyz with precious little buying power when stocks began to trade Monday morning. The result was a 200-point decline to start the week. That's even worse than last Monday's step-step-stumble out of the gate, which primed the Dow Industrials for a 187-point decline that day. The mood on Wall Street has definitely changed, and nowhere is this more evident than in the failure of the world-class predators who work the Sunday-night shift to spook those who went home short on Friday into covering. Actually, Friday itself had been a bust, since even at the apogee of the head-fake that played out in the opening hour, buyers couldn't push the broad averages above even a single prior peak on the hourly charts.   As we like to point out, merely bullish buying can almost never create headline rallies; rather, it takes the kind of urgent buying that only shorts who have gotten caught in the ringer can provide. While it is true that legit, die-hard bulls lend moderate buoyancy to the markets at all times, it is only desperate bears on margin calls who can  punch through supply zones and create opening-hour gaps in places where sellers might otherwise have been more aggressive about profit-taking. Bottom line: Bull markets (and bear rallies such as the one we've been in since early March) owe far more to skeptics, doubters and permabears than to business-show shills who are constantly talking up the market. A Tough Week Ahead... So where do we see stocks headed this week? For starters, the E-Mini S&P looks likely to fall an additional 20 points, at least, when stocks start to trade again Tuesday morning.

DaBoyz Fail to Fool

– Posted in: Rick's Picks

A post-midnight update for the E-Mini S&P seems to have caught a telling turn -- one that hints of more weakness on Monday.  If DaBoyz can't even get a short-squeeze going on a Sunday night, stocks may be weaker than they appeared at last week's end.

MSFT – Microsoft (Last:24.07)

– Posted in: Free

Save some ammo, since Microcrap looks like it will be a good short if it makes it up to 25.34 a Hidden Pivot.  We have a small, losing put position from way back when, but re-shorting the stock at the target looks like a promising way to recoup the loss.

USU09 – T-Bond Futures (Last:116^11)

– Posted in: Free

Friday's failure to push above a small peak at 115^03 recorded on the  way down a day earlier suggests weakness over the near term, although a pop today exceeding 115^20 would turn the minor trend back to bullish.  Short 114^14.5 with a very tight stop-loss if the opportunity arises.  Correction:  Sorry for the untradable misprint, for it was a short at 115^14.5 that I'd intended.

GCQ09 – Comex August Gold (Last:934.10)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

All signs point moderately lower over the near-term, but there are too many Hidden Pivot supports to choose from to make for compelling bottom-fishing opportunities. If forced to choose the most attractive of the lot, I'd say _____. We'll make that our minimum downside objective for now, subject to negation by a rally today exceeding _____. That would be the most promising sign we've seen on the hourly chart in more than two weeks.