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COMMENTARY for Wednesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday
Rick's Picks for Wednesday
Silver is vulnerable to a mild selloff if it breaches the Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 14.210 shown in the chart. Its ‘D’ sibling lies at 13.905, and that would become our minimum downside objective. Alternatively, we’d need to see an upthrust past 14.525 to turn the hourly chart bullish, and a close above 14.740 to get a running start on minor target at 15.245. ______ UPDATE (9:20 a.m. EDT): The futures have bounced from just above the 14.100 target of a lesser pattern (A=14.510, recorded on August 10, 15-minute chart). This is bullish for the near term, although the 13.905 downside target given above will remain valid in theory until such time as the rally surpasses 14.520 (‘C’ of the larger pattern; its breach appears imminent).
The futures failed to leverage the previous day’s push, fizzling out two ticks shy of a Hidden Pivot midpoint that had been flagged in yesterday’s analysis. However, the selloff did no damage whatsoever to the hourly chart, and it would take a 988.50 print to turn bearish. That’s a tick beneath a low made on the way up on August 3. There are no appealing trades to recommend, not even for night owls, since yesterday’s low merely tested a visually obvious support from August 7.
Prechter’s bullish call on the dollar was all over the Web yesterday, based mainly on the kind of sentiment indicators from which one might reasonably infer that just about everyone is bearish on the buck right now. Since Bob Hoye is one of the few exceptions, it behooves us to pay close attention to the charts. My gut feeling is that the rally is a bit too pat to be the real McCoy, coming as it did off a low that slightly exceeded mid-December’s key bottom at 77.69. What this suggests is that the thrust has been more short-squeeze than anything else — but not, it should be emphasized, a very powerful one. In any event, we’ll use 79.78 as a bullish trigger for today and Thursday. The number was given here yesterday and represents a look-to-the-left peak recorded July 15 on the way down.
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SIDE BETS for Wednesday
If the futures close above 1.4322 without having dipped below 1.4104, that would suggest bulls are in control. There is nothing on the hourly chart that promises gainful bottom-fishing at the moment.
The 941.70 downside target given here earlier is still valid, but a run-up exceeding 956.00 would turn the very lesser charts bullish again. With the futures currently buoyant at 8:35 p.m. and trading just off a 950.50 high, my immediate objective is 951.10. If that Hidden Pivot is brushed aside, it would be a bullish sign for the very near-term. ______UPDATE (10:28 a.m.): The futures bottomed overnight at 842.10, exactly 40 cents from the target. The fact that it was not quite reached is bullish for the near term.
Goldman shares will have a chance to pick up support from some obvious lows made in July that range from 157.02 to 157.90 — or if not there, at a 156.93 Hidden Pivot that could be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as 5-7 cents. _______ UPDATE (10:31 a.m.): The stock opened on a short-squeeze gap after pounding on a bid near 159.20 all night that looked unbreakable. DaBoyz evidently still love the stock, and they are still very much in control.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on 6/30 - 7/1. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
2009 Promises to Get Tougher
by Rick Ackerman on August 12, 2009 12:00 am GMT · 3 comments
(Here’s the latest dispatch from our friend and colleague Larry Amernick, who thinks any stock-market corrections in the offing are going to be shallow. If you’d like to sample his work, e-mail him at: Amernick@comcast.net.)
Time for some straight talk about the stock market, since nothing has improved fundamentally. Congress has passed no financial reform, the Federal Reserve is financing a new equities bubble on Wall Street, and the real economy is on life support. According to our technical runes, the market is overbought but unlikely to correct more than 7 percent » Read the full article