February 12th, 2012
Published Daily
COMMENTARY for Wednesday

I thought I’d overdosed on the inflation vs. deflation debate, but that was before I started reading Adam Fergusson’s When Money Dies: The Nightmare of the Weimar Collapse. Fascinating stuff. Anyone who thinks it couldn’t happen here is right in one respect: It won’t take ten years to play out in the U.S., as it did in Germany.  Far from it. My guess is that our own hyperinflation nightmare – and we will have one once deflation has had its way with all who borrowed more than they can ever pay back — will be over within ten » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday

Asian Stocks Leading the Way Down

by Rick Ackerman on August 19, 2009 3:31 am GMT

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Rick's Picks for Wednesday
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ESU09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:987.50)

by Rick Ackerman on August 19, 2009 2:14 am GMT

I put out a shortable target at 993.25 in the chat room yesterday more than an hour before the close, but the futures went nowhere, and the absolutely lifeless action since has turned the pivot to dross; it is no longer usable.  I’ve included a chart so you can see for yourself that, despite the tedium, there are still excellent opportunities to be had intraday. They can be found mainly on the lesser charts in instances where all of our Hidden Pivot rules have been met. In this case, we’ve got ‘em in spades: 1)  A, B & C coordinates all etched by a single bar; 2) a quite subtle, one-off ‘A’;   3) an impulse leg that has quietly pushed past the required two prior peaks, and 4)  a meandering C-D leg to keep other traders and technicians from recognizing the rules-based charm of the overall pattern. What we lacked was enough buying energy to get the futures to the target. Still, seven hours later, longs from the conventional point ‘X’ entry would still be in-the-black, if only slightly. _______ UPDATE (3:25 a.m.): With Asian markets getting sacked once again, the E-Mini S&P is discounting a potentially nasty opening. The futures have been down as much as 10 points so far tonight, hitting a low of 979.50, but the selling could continue to 958.50 or even lower if the 974.25 midpoint support asssociated with that Hidden Pivot gives way. 

The rally off Monday’s secondary low (931.80) projects to 945.40 – 1.50 points above yesterday’s high. The target is still valid, although it would have made a better short if it had been hit on the first try, a modest spike this evening around 8:30 p.m. EDT. What matters most at this point is not that a would-be opportunity has curdled, but that the futures are not showing enough oomph, even, to reach a relatively easy target.  That could still happen tonight or Wednesday morning, but I’d need to see a thrust exceeding 946.20 to be convinced that buyers are capable of taking charge. With a 950.70 print, they would BE in charge.

GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:160.42)

by Rick Ackerman on August 19, 2009 3:14 am GMT

The maniacs who dominate in this stock left a relatively rare and unquestionably bullish island-gap reversal on the hourly chart yesterday, threatening bears with a frontal assault if they should grow too bold. Since Goldman is still our favorite bellwether, we should take the threat seriously to the extent that the stock is capable of dragging the entire market higher if it catches fire.  I had suggested a mechanically inspired short in the SKF Ultrashort Financials — a bullish play on the banks — and this latest development in Goldman seems to explain why SKF’s rally could be short-lived.  Instead of shorting SKF, though, let’s speculate modestly in Goldman, bidding 2.10 on the opening for two September 170 calls (GPYIN). If the order goes unfilled, lower the bid to 1.90 and leave it in for the remainder of the day.

USU09 – T-Bond Futures (Last:119^18.5)

by Rick Ackerman on August 19, 2009 3:28 am GMT

The bonds have looked pretty good these last couple of weeks, but it’s been nearly two months since any rally managed to create a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart. There have in fact been three failures to do so, and this will make a fourth if it fizzles out anywhere south of 122^10.

$SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:35.93)

by Rick Ackerman on February 9, 2012 4:24 am GMT

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$GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:116.29)

by Rick Ackerman on February 8, 2012 3:36 am GMT

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Dow Industrial Average (DJIA) price chart with targetsTake any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long.  Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say. 


SIDE BETS for Wednesday

$AKAM – Akamai (Last: 17.83)

by Rick Ackerman on August 19, 2009 2:56 am GMT

The downside target at 17.04 is still valid, so let’s try bottom-fishing there once again by bidding 17.07 for 400 shares, stop 16.89.

UNG – U.S. Natural Gas Fund (12.05)

by Rick Ackerman on August 19, 2009 3:18 am GMT

It’s do or die here, since UNG looks likely to grope its way down to at least 11.31 if it doesn’t pick up support from mid-July’s lows near 12.


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