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COMMENTARY for Monday
TODAY'S ACTION for Monday
Rick's Picks for Monday
The futures are getting whacked a bit harder than usual Sunday night, hinting that it may be more than a garden-variety shakedown. That doesn’t mean DaBoyz will not find a price at which they can rape fearful sellers — only that the process may require a little more sneakiness than usual. In any event, the hourly chart will remain undisturbed as long as the futures hold above 1027.00. A print below that number would create a bearish impulse leg, however, and it would be especially significant because it would follow a peak that had missed a Hidden Pivot target (i.e., 1053.00) by nearly five points.
Gold is feigning weakness Sunday night — or perhaps not — but its downward drift will have no significance, even on the lesser charts, unless it takes out a Hidden Pivot support at 1001.50. Ordinarily that would be a good spot to try bottom-fishing, but not this time due to it close proximity to a visually obvious low made Friday on the way up. There may nevertheless be an opportunity for night owls to board with “camouflage,” so I’ve included a chart that shows how, just in case.
Because I’ve hung out a bullish target in the $190s, we should watch closely to see how stubbornly the little sonofabitch bucks weakness in the broad averages. We may have an opportunity to observe and learn Monday morning, since Goldman had already begun to sell off on Friday, well before there were any clues that stocks would get hit Sunday night. If the market drags GS lower, the first Hidden Pivot support where we could try bottom-fishing would be at 172.77, stop 172.66. You’ll be on your own if the order fills and initially goes your way. You should also be watching for signs that a recalcitrant Goldman is keeping the market from falling apart, as might be the case. _______ UPDATE (10:28): After falling shy of our downside target by a relatively paltry 40 cents, Goldman suspiciously did NOT participate in this morning’s phony selloff, thereby telegraphing the broad recovery attempt currently under way.
The rally in the long bond must have a little ways to go, since this inverse vehicle has an unachieved downside target at 43.18, roughly 6 percent below these levels. If TBT gets there it could provide an excellent camouflage opportunity for bottom-fishing, so stay tuned. Note how the target falls in-between two prior lows, one of them an important one.
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SIDE BETS for Monday
Silver died after topping last week just above a 16.940 target I’d flagged, but the pullback will do no damage to the hourly chart unless it exceeds 15.850 in a downdraft today or tomorrow. Alternatively, the first hint of recovery would come today on a print exceeding 16.730.
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Two Possibilities Bulls Have Yet to Discount
by Rick Ackerman on September 14, 2009 3:35 am GMT · 26 comments
We’ve always believed that the stock market’s ups and downs are driven not by anything so mundane as news events or the economy, but by the same mysterious cyclical forces that govern the physical universe. Nevertheless, two rapidly evolving news stories threaten to abruptly reverse Wall Street’s heedless bear rally, which recently entered its seventh month.
The first story concerns the impending collapse of the Obama presidency. Although he ran a very impressive campaign, Mr. Obama appears hell-bent on committing political suicide. The President is clearly obsessed with radically revamping the country’s health » Read the full article