November 24th, 2014
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Weekly Commentary

Ben’s Pretty Sure Recession Is Over

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2009 12:05 am GMT · 4 comments

It’s almost official:  the recession is maybe, probably, technically over. Helicopter Ben said so yesterday, and who are we to argue?  You can hardly blame the guy for having his head in the clouds, considering how retail sales absolutely exploded in August. Sure, it was due almost entirely to a cash-for-clunkers program that taxpayers have yet to pay for. But the program will have been a bargain if it helps foster the impression Americans are in a spending mood again. And if that’s all it takes to get the economy rolling, then by all means, let’s extend clunker status to everything else in America that clunks, starting with Iron City’s peerless clunkmeisters, the Pittsburgh Pirates. We’ll personally chip in a TV set » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday

Goldman Still the Stock to Watch

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2009 1:30 am GMT

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PICK OF THE DAY for Wednesday

DIA – Diamonds (Last:97.37)

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2009 1:14 am GMT

The Diamonds are  creeping up on a shortable Hidden Pivot at ____. It's possible we won't get a better opportunity to lay 'em out than yesterday's 97.31 high, but if the opportunity arises today we can at least be ready.  Accordingly, I'll suggest buying two October 97 puts (DAVVS)  if DIA gets within 5 cents of the target.  A _____ stop-loss would be appropriate.  If you want to use a limit order, I estimate that the puts will be trading for about ____ with DIA at or near _____....

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Rick's Picks for Wednesday
$ = Actionable Advice + = Open Position
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ESU09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1048.00)

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2009 12:01 am GMT

If I were short right now, wearing the pain on my sleeve, I’d have grown so despairing as to create near-certitude in the minds of contrarians that a very nasty swoon is at hand. We should therefore pay close attention to any signs of trouble — meaning, for one, pullbacks that exceed their ‘D’ targets. While we’re at it, and because no signs of trouble have developed yet, let’s try bottom-fishing at the midpoint shown in the chart.  The trade will of course be viable only if the downtrend plays out in a fashion similar to what I have drawn.  (It doesn’t have to be exact, though, and ‘C’ could be higher than the one shown). My instructions are non-verbal, but the method you are to use will be accessible to all who have taken the Hidden Pivot course. I would encourage you to share your tactics with those in the chat room who may be less experienced. _______ UPDATEWe had the right idea, although the pattern shown in the chart missed the actual low by two ticks.  That low occurred at 1046.00, but our bid would have been at 1045.50.  The fact that a retracement abc was unable to get to its midpoint telegraphed the strength that unfolded on Wednesday. As a practical matter, the buy was subsequently signaled on the first bullish impulse leg that occurred after 1045.50 was missed on the pullback. This occurred on the opening, on a 1058.00 high.

GCZ09 – Comex December Gold (Last:1008.60)

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2009 12:45 am GMT

Looks like a minimum 1022.00 from here, enroute to a bigger-picture target at 1074.00 that I have more or less promised.  I won’t try to split hairs with chat-roomers who have been monitoring gold’s every heartbeat, every microtrend,  but I will pitch in with whatever camouflage entry opportunities may crop up (as one did yesterday morning).  There’s another in progress at this very moment (albeit with a caveat), as you can see in the accompanying chart. Notice how Tuesday’s high fell between the two labeled peaks to the left.

$JYM13 – June Yen (Last:0.8481)

by Rick Ackerman on November 24, 2014 8:00 am GMT

The chart shown has implications that may or may not prevent Japan from getting sucked into a deflationary black hole. However, the chart is quite clear on the question of whether BOJ will be successful in its longstanding goal of trashing the yen. (Answer: Yes, very.) The small rally in early October from around 0.9001 validates the pattern itself, and the decisive progress beneath that level since implies that the D target at 0.7332 is likely to be reached. This will obviously benefit Japanese exporters, but it will also put more pressure on manufacturers in the U.S. and elsewhere that compete with them. Traders should position from the short side until the target is reached, but be alert for a rally back up to the red line, since that would set up a ‘mechanical’ short to the target using a 0.9418 stop-loss. That’s far more than we would ordinarily risk, but you could cut it down to size by using the ‘camouflage’ technique. When appropriate, ask in the chat room if you’re uncertain about how to do this.

$GCZ14 – December Gold (Last:1199.30)

by Rick Ackerman on November 24, 2014 7:27 am GMT

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$ESZ14 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2062.00)

by Rick Ackerman on November 24, 2014 7:09 am GMT

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:28.81)

by Rick Ackerman on November 20, 2014 6:17 am GMT

GDXJ’s ups and downs are in ‘dueling’ mode at the moment, alternating between bullish and bearish feints. It was mildly bullish when the stock slightly exceeded the 129.30 target shown on Tuesday. However, yesterday’s slide also exceeded a Hidden Pivot target — in this case a hidden support at 27.21.  Taken together, the action suggests that this vehicle will spend the next few days marking time in the range 28-29. The picture would brighten on a thrust exceeding 29.20 on Thursday, since that would imply more upside to at least 31.24. Alternatively, a continuation of the downtrend past 25.67 would have equally bearish implications. ______ UPDATE (November 24, 1:54 a.m. EST): GDXJ finally budged by moving above 29.28, albeit a day later than we might have preferred.  Now, if the rally holds above Friday’s 28.42 low, a modest target at 30.43 will be in play — would become an odds-on bet if and when this vehicle pushes above the 29.43 midpoint resistance.

$DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:17686)

by Rick Ackerman on November 20, 2014 3:47 am GMT

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USZ14 – December T-Bonds (Last:141^22)

by Rick Ackerman on November 17, 2014 12:06 am GMT

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$+DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:177.60)

by Rick Ackerman on November 12, 2014 4:20 am GMT

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$IDAH – Idaho North Resources (Last:0.1600)

by Rick Ackerman on November 5, 2014 12:01 am GMT

Idaho North [OTC symbol: IDAH] offers investors a potentially lucrative synergy between two very successful entrepreneurs.  CEO Mark Fralich started out as a reporter with the Associated Press News Service but went on to co-found Spoval Fiber Optics before moving into the exploration business with Mines Management, Consolidated Goldfields Corp. and some other natural resource companies. Like most executives in the exploration business, he is an aggressive risk-taker. But he is also an astute bettor, perhaps never moreso than in his choice of Thomas Callicrate to head up his technical team.

Callicrate is bottled lightning, a geologist who may know more about ore deposits in Nevada than anyone else in the world. I counted no fewer than 250 file cabinets in the barn-size work buildings that surround Callicrate’s spectacular home in Carson City. He seems to have committed every geological map in those cabinets to memory, and he can tell you exactly where each and every rock came from in the massive stone fireplace that dominates his living room and in his beautifully landscaped gardens.  The fact that he chose to affiliate with IDAH attests to his confidence in Fralich’s ability to exploit to-the-max whatever ore deposits the company is able to find.

From a technical standpoint, the company’s shares have not traded for long enough to offer a sound basis for prediction. The stock has fluctuated between 0.08 and 0.24 since being OTC-listed in November 2013. That said, it would be no worse than an even bet to hit 0.3000 a share, nearly double its current price, if it can push past the red line at 0.2150. That’s a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance, and it will remain valid as a minimum upside target for the near term unless the stock falls below 0.1300 first.

For news concerning two separate option agreements that IDAH recently signed, click here for the Green Monster property in Nye County, and here for Coeur Mining’s Klondyke properties.

$+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.3310)

by Rick Ackerman on October 28, 2014 2:47 am GMT

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SIDE BETS for Wednesday

GS – Goldman Sachs (176.68)

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2009 1:24 am GMT

Let me reiterate that, with Goldman presumably bound for at least 192.91, any pullback that lines up with Hidden Pivots is a speculative buy. Yesterday, for instance, I’d flagged a major midpoint support at 175.05 where you might have considered doing so. However, the actual low of a nasty swoon on the opening was 175.46.  Although, with Goldman in such a strong uptrend,  we should expect pullbacks to fall shy of their targets, we can still catch the turns — and trade them — using camouflage.  Our edge yesterday lay in “knowing” that the correction would reverse from within spitting distance of the midpoint pivot.


This Just In... for Wednesday

How It Is…

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2009 12:01 am GMT

Click here for a fine rant from Roger Mason on the true state of the economy.

Another Crushing Rebuke to Inflationists…

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2009 12:01 am GMT

Here’s another sharp rebuke to all the yo-yos who think inflation is just around the corner.  The essay amplifies Hummel’s thoughts – published here recently – on seigniorage, explaining why hyperinflations can occur only in currency-driven systems (such as Zimbabwe’s), and not in nations like the U.S., where money has effectively been replaced by credit. Click here to read the full essay.  Here’s an excerpt:

“I agree with Pento on every point, except for one – a devastating bout of inflation is unlikely.  In the United States, two camps of thought dominate the marketplace.  The bullish camp believes that government interventions can be fine-tuned to hold inflation in-check, while allowing the economy to expand.  The bearish camp believes that government interventions will eventually unleash uncontrollable inflation that will send the price of gold, oil, and other commodities soaring to sky-high levels – while sending the economy into a prolonged tailspin due to reduced purchasing power.

“But more than likely, both camps are wrong.  And the hyperinflation expected by the bearish comp is even more unlikely than the bullish viewpoint.  Why?  Throughout the world’s financial history, there has never been a case of hyperinflation in a country using a monetary-system based on credit.  Hyperinflations only occur in countries that use currency for money.  That’s an important distinction that cannot be overlooked.

“A credit-based monetary system prevents severe inflation in two ways.  (1) During times of rising inflation, investors avoid bonds in favor of hard assets.  As a result, bond prices deflate, causing great losses for existing debt holders.  (2) During times of financial stress, bonds backed by questionable assets deflate in value.”


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