October 1st, 2014
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Ben’s Pretty Sure Recession Is Over

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2009 12:05 am GMT · 4 comments

It’s almost official:  the recession is maybe, probably, technically over. Helicopter Ben said so yesterday, and who are we to argue?  You can hardly blame the guy for having his head in the clouds, considering how retail sales absolutely exploded in August. Sure, it was due almost entirely to a cash-for-clunkers program that taxpayers have yet to pay for. But the program will have been a bargain if it helps foster the impression Americans are in a spending mood again. And if that’s all it takes to get the economy rolling, then by all means, let’s extend clunker status to everything else in America that clunks, starting with Iron City’s peerless clunkmeisters, the Pittsburgh Pirates. We’ll personally chip in a TV set » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday

Goldman Still the Stock to Watch

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2009 1:30 am GMT

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PICK OF THE DAY for Wednesday

DIA – Diamonds (Last:97.37)

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2009 1:14 am GMT

The Diamonds are  creeping up on a shortable Hidden Pivot at ____. It's possible we won't get a better opportunity to lay 'em out than yesterday's 97.31 high, but if the opportunity arises today we can at least be ready.  Accordingly, I'll suggest buying two October 97 puts (DAVVS)  if DIA gets within 5 cents of the target.  A _____ stop-loss would be appropriate.  If you want to use a limit order, I estimate that the puts will be trading for about ____ with DIA at or near _____....

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Rick's Picks for Wednesday
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ESU09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:1048.00)

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2009 12:01 am GMT

If I were short right now, wearing the pain on my sleeve, I’d have grown so despairing as to create near-certitude in the minds of contrarians that a very nasty swoon is at hand. We should therefore pay close attention to any signs of trouble — meaning, for one, pullbacks that exceed their ‘D’ targets. While we’re at it, and because no signs of trouble have developed yet, let’s try bottom-fishing at the midpoint shown in the chart.  The trade will of course be viable only if the downtrend plays out in a fashion similar to what I have drawn.  (It doesn’t have to be exact, though, and ‘C’ could be higher than the one shown). My instructions are non-verbal, but the method you are to use will be accessible to all who have taken the Hidden Pivot course. I would encourage you to share your tactics with those in the chat room who may be less experienced. _______ UPDATEWe had the right idea, although the pattern shown in the chart missed the actual low by two ticks.  That low occurred at 1046.00, but our bid would have been at 1045.50.  The fact that a retracement abc was unable to get to its midpoint telegraphed the strength that unfolded on Wednesday. As a practical matter, the buy was subsequently signaled on the first bullish impulse leg that occurred after 1045.50 was missed on the pullback. This occurred on the opening, on a 1058.00 high.

GCZ09 – Comex December Gold (Last:1008.60)

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2009 12:45 am GMT

Looks like a minimum 1022.00 from here, enroute to a bigger-picture target at 1074.00 that I have more or less promised.  I won’t try to split hairs with chat-roomers who have been monitoring gold’s every heartbeat, every microtrend,  but I will pitch in with whatever camouflage entry opportunities may crop up (as one did yesterday morning).  There’s another in progress at this very moment (albeit with a caveat), as you can see in the accompanying chart. Notice how Tuesday’s high fell between the two labeled peaks to the left.

The 171.10 rally target we used for this vehicle yesterday caught the intraday high precisely to-the-tick. This allowed subscribers to buy Oct 10 169 puts as suggested for a reported 0.75, the low of the day. Toward the end of the session, with DIA trading significantly lower, I suggested spreading off the risk by offering four October 10 167 puts short for 0.60.  The order went unfilled (although some tightwad put up a 0.59 bid in the closing seconds). Now, I’ll suggest offering the calls short for 0.80, a price that I might suggest raising if it looks like stocks are going to open with a big thud. If the order were to fill at 0.80, our vertical-spread position would produce a gain of at least $20 no matter what, but with upside potential to $880.

My reasoning behind this strategy is that the Ebola scare may already have reached the threshold of “tradable event.”  This I have surmised from the rapt attention the story commanded at my gym, which has TV monitors in all of the workout rooms. Whatever happens, we can only pray that there has been no spread of the disease by the man now under close watch in a Dallas hospital. However, because the possibilities that might arise from this developing story are almost too scary to imagine, we should treat it as an event that could have a significant impact on financial markets. _______ UPDATE (At the opening): Bring the offer down to the original 0.60 for the short puts. _______ UPDATE (9:59 a.m.):  No trades recorded yet, but with the puts now 0.93 bid/1.07 asked, I’ll score this as a short sale at 0.80 unless I hear from someone in the chat room who did worse.

$JNK – High-Yield Bond ETF (Last:40.18)

by Rick Ackerman on September 29, 2014 8:30 am GMT

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$CLX14 – November Crude (Last:93.39)

by Rick Ackerman on September 25, 2014 12:37 am GMT

Energy prices got a lift Wednesday from news that U.S. air strikes had targeted a Syrian oil installation held by ISIS. The refineries that were hit reportedly have been generating revenues of $2 million a day for the terrorist group, so the news was good (even if there was no mention of jihadis left dead by the attack). Whether or not the moderate spike in oil prices will disrupt the mini-bear market in crude remains to be seen. However, using Hidden Pivot analysis, it’s possible to project a further move to the shortable 94.77 target shown. If that happens, prices will have advanced nearly 6% from their September lows. It would take just a bit more than that, however — specifically, a print at 94.93 today or tomorrow — to turn the daily chart outright bullish.

We should not expect a bearish reversal to much alleviate rising prices at the pump, however, since crude’s nearly 15% slide from late June’s highs had little effect on prices, which in many parts of the country still hover near $3.80 for a gallon of regular. Reports by the slackers, fabulists and indolent hacks who bring us the news – including, unfortunately, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal — suggested otherwise, almost to the point of saying that gasoline prices had collapsed in recent weeks. Of course, those of us who actually buy gasoline saw prices come down by only a dime or so. _______ UPDATE (September 30, 10:29 a.m. EDT): My target caught today’s 94.90 top within 13 cents, and thus the start of a so-far $1.71 plunge.  If you got short as I’d suggested, please let me know in the chat room and I’ll establish tracking guidance.

$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:116.02)

by Rick Ackerman on September 23, 2014 2:06 am GMT

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$SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:20.51)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2014 8:23 am GMT

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$SIZ14 – December Silver (Last:17.535)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2014 8:12 am GMT

The futures obliterated an 18.130 Hidden Pivot support on Friday, implying more downside to the 16.820 target shown. Because a tradable bounce from that Hidden Pivot seems likely,  I am recommending bottom-fishing there, albeit with a very tight stop-loss (or with a ‘camouflage’ bid on charts of 3-minute degree or less).  The futures have already slightly exceeded the 17.715 midpoint pivot (p1) associated with A=32.802 (1/25/13), so the new midpoint support (i.e., 16.820) is potentially a very important number. Notice that its easy breach would put an 8.776 ‘D’ target in play. ______  UPDATE (Sep 23, 9:22 p.m. EDT): A Hidden Pivot at 16.270 should also be mentioned as a downside target if the selling snowballs. It comes from a so-so, ’sausage’ pattern on the weekly chart, where A=24.865 on 8/30/13. _______ UPDATE (September 30, 3:53 p.m.):  The low of today’s selloff came within 3 cents of the 16.820 target flagged above.  For reasons noted above, this Hidden Support must not fail.

$+RGLD – Royal Gold (Last:65.34)

by Rick Ackerman on September 22, 2014 12:01 am GMT

The stock’s low on Friday occurred just 0.03 from the 65.91 target I’d projected during Thursday’s impromptu technical-analysis session. Because this looked like a great trading opportunity to me, I made it explicitly clear during the session that I was very confident RGLD would achieve the target. However, I hadn’t imagined the stock would fall so sharply — more than 4% — that it would accomplish this in a single day. I also said I was very confident that a tradable bounce would occur from the target.  It did, and the bounce so far has been 54 cents — sufficient to warrant taking a partial profit on any longs bottom-fished at the low. Although the bounce was bullishly impulsive on the very lesser charts, RGLD has come down so hard that I wouldn’t count on the support to hold for long. In any event, if you did the trade, perhaps even shorting to the target as I’d suggested, please let me know in the chat room so that I can provide tracking guidance for the position that remains. ______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 8:23 p.m.): Sellers crushed the support after it held for just a day, implying more weakness is coming. If so, we should expect a test of support near the 58.86 low recorded  in late May. _______ UPDATE (Sep 24, 7:27 p.m.): A weak rally has lifted RGLD off recent lows, but the move would need to hit 66.49 to turn the very lesser charts impulsively bullish. The nearest Hidden Pivot resistance of importance lies at 66.22, so take encouragement if there’s an easy move through it.

$SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.3400)

by Rick Ackerman on September 5, 2014 3:05 am GMT

I first touted Snipp Interactive back in January, when it was trading around 0.15. Although the stock subsequently fell to a dime, it has since rallied sharply, settling at 0.2562 yesterday. This is one of my favorite stocks, and I came away from a conference call with its CEO, Atul Sabharwal, eager to sing their praises. During that call, I hit Atul with my best idea, a sweepstakes-type promotion, but he was already three steps ahead of me, able to cite, for one, New York State’s rules and costs for exactly the type of marketing scheme I’d suggested.

Full disclosure: I hold 100,000 shares plus warrants to purchase another 50,000 shares.  But I hope that won’t discourage you from performing your own due diligence, since you are likely to be as impressed as I was when you find out what the company has been up to. For me, at least, Snipp (OTC: SNIPF) perfectly satisfies Peter Lynch’s rule that investors favor companies whose strengths and methods they can understand. Snipp does interactive marketing that allows clients to track results in real time. The results have been sufficiently impressive that the company has been attracting blue chip clients with little difficulty. Read more about SNIPP by clicking here.

From a technical standpoint, although the stock’s chart history is thin, it’s possible to project a near-term rally target of 0.2730. A tenet of Hidden Pivot analysis is that an easy move through such targeted resistance implies there is unspent buying power percolating beneath the surface. This is not a “hot tip;” indeed, Snipp’s story does not lend itself to the kind of hubris that will result in a $10 billion IPO. But it is an aggressive and imaginative pioneer in a rapidly developing niche, and its CEO has the kind of imagination, intelligence and energy that inspires confidence. _______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 8:30 p.m.): The stock has continued to rally, and the closest Hidden Pivot target is now 0.2668.  If that Hidden Pivot is exceeded on a closing basis for two days, however, a target at 0.3474 would be in play. _______ UPDATE (Sep 23):  Snipp has entered the Brazilian market via an exclusive marketing contract with Petrobas. Click here for the news release. ______ UPDATE (Sep 23, 1:57 p.m. EDT):  The stock has gone bonkers today, up six cents to within less than a penny of the 0.3474 target projected two days ago.

$+TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:279.20)

by Rick Ackerman on September 3, 2014 5:30 am GMT

Tesla’s strong rally has turned the Oct 3/Sep 5 calendar spread into a solid winner. The spread is currently trading on a bid/asked of 4.50/5.07.  This means subscribers who bought the spread for as little as $1.00 last week could have quintupled their stake. The most paid for it would have been about 1.54. In any case, I’ll suggest offering half of the eight spreads to close today for 4.70. We’ll plan on rolling what’s left on Friday by covering (buying) back the September 5 300 calls we’re short and shorting the Sep 12 300 calls at the same time. ______ UPDATE (10:40 p.m. EDT): The stock’s push to an intraday high at 291.42 made the spread an easy sale for $5.00+, so I’ll consider the order filled.  Now, roll the four spreads that remain into the October 3 /September 12 calendar as detailed above. _______ UPDATE (Sep 7, 10:31 p.m.): The midway price on the spread intraday was 2.30. Imputing the premium to the four October 3/September 12 calendar spreads we now hold would zero out the initial cost of 1.54 and add 0.76 to the real-time value of the spread.  We’ll plan on rolling the spread again on Friday by selling the September 19/September 12 call spread (and thereby covering the short Sep 12 300s), but for now do nothing further. _______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 12:54 a.m.): I’ll use a 0.37 price, midway between the intraday high and low, as the spread price unless I hear from someone in the chat room who did better or worse. Imputing this new premium income to our Nov 22 / Sep 20 spread gives us a CREDIT cost basis of 1.13, for a guaranteed minimum profit on the position of $452. That would be in addition to whatever the Nov 22 calls fetch when we exit them.


SIDE BETS for Wednesday

GS – Goldman Sachs (176.68)

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2009 1:24 am GMT

Let me reiterate that, with Goldman presumably bound for at least 192.91, any pullback that lines up with Hidden Pivots is a speculative buy. Yesterday, for instance, I’d flagged a major midpoint support at 175.05 where you might have considered doing so. However, the actual low of a nasty swoon on the opening was 175.46.  Although, with Goldman in such a strong uptrend,  we should expect pullbacks to fall shy of their targets, we can still catch the turns — and trade them — using camouflage.  Our edge yesterday lay in “knowing” that the correction would reverse from within spitting distance of the midpoint pivot.


This Just In... for Wednesday

How It Is…

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2009 12:01 am GMT

Click here for a fine rant from Roger Mason on the true state of the economy.

Another Crushing Rebuke to Inflationists…

by Rick Ackerman on September 16, 2009 12:01 am GMT

Here’s another sharp rebuke to all the yo-yos who think inflation is just around the corner.  The essay amplifies Hummel’s thoughts – published here recently – on seigniorage, explaining why hyperinflations can occur only in currency-driven systems (such as Zimbabwe’s), and not in nations like the U.S., where money has effectively been replaced by credit. Click here to read the full essay.  Here’s an excerpt:

“I agree with Pento on every point, except for one – a devastating bout of inflation is unlikely.  In the United States, two camps of thought dominate the marketplace.  The bullish camp believes that government interventions can be fine-tuned to hold inflation in-check, while allowing the economy to expand.  The bearish camp believes that government interventions will eventually unleash uncontrollable inflation that will send the price of gold, oil, and other commodities soaring to sky-high levels – while sending the economy into a prolonged tailspin due to reduced purchasing power.

“But more than likely, both camps are wrong.  And the hyperinflation expected by the bearish comp is even more unlikely than the bullish viewpoint.  Why?  Throughout the world’s financial history, there has never been a case of hyperinflation in a country using a monetary-system based on credit.  Hyperinflations only occur in countries that use currency for money.  That’s an important distinction that cannot be overlooked.

“A credit-based monetary system prevents severe inflation in two ways.  (1) During times of rising inflation, investors avoid bonds in favor of hard assets.  As a result, bond prices deflate, causing great losses for existing debt holders.  (2) During times of financial stress, bonds backed by questionable assets deflate in value.”


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The Hidden Pivot Webinar is one-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. The next Webinar will take place on October 16, 2014. For more information, or to register, click here.