April 18th, 2014
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Topic of the Week

Dollar’s Next Rally Looks Doomed

by Rick Ackerman on September 17, 2009 4:22 am GMT · 5 comments

Here are two numbers to jot down if you’re interested in gold and the U.S. dollar:  75.47 and 72.93.  Those are our current downside targets for the NYBOT Dollar Index, and we are quite confident that both will be reached in the fullness of time. The first lies just 1% below yesterday’s settlement price of 76.28; the second, 4.3% below it.  Like you, we’ve heard many compelling arguments from dollar bulls and bears. Some think it is about to turn very strong, while others see a collapse. Our gut feeling is that the bulls will be right, » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday

Revving up…

by Rick Ackerman on September 17, 2009 6:04 am GMT

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Rick's Picks for Thursday
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DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:76.25)

by Rick Ackerman on September 17, 2009 4:59 am GMT

This tout will officially correct a downside target by a small amount, to 75.47.As noted in today’s commentary, I expect DXY to fall to that number and then to rally for a spell before plunging anew to 72.93. If the higher target is reached around the same time December Gold is hitting 1074, consider that a warning to lighten up on precious metals.

YMU09 – E-Mini Dow (Last:9793)

by Rick Ackerman on September 17, 2009 5:17 am GMT

Late Wednesday night, the futures were playing toe-sies with a Hidden Pivot rally target at 9794 (see chart).  The actual high so far is 9793, and it could go either way.  Notice that I have used, not the one-off ‘A’ here, but the obvious one. That’s because I needed to project the highest target possible from the existing pattern.  If it is exceeded, we’ll have to move up to the daily chart to find a rally pattern yet to play out. The most obvious one, going back to the March low, yields a bear rally objective of 10431.

GCZ09 – Comex December Gold (Last:1019.70)

by Rick Ackerman on September 17, 2009 5:25 am GMT

Yesterday’s bullish forecast and target worked well enough for at least one subscriber, Phil D., to make money while he slept: “Bought three minis below 1010 with a stop below your C-point before going to bed, got up this morning and saw we’d bounced just a hair over 1022, so I sold 2 at 1018+. Not a bad return on sleeping. Given the low risk, it seems I should have bought more. Keep looking for that camouflage!” And so we shall, since the immediate forecast still calls for a rally to at least 1074. As of 10:51 p.m., a camouflage “alert” was in effect, since the abc retracement highlighted in the chart failed to reach its ”d’ target (or even its midpoint pivot). When this occurs, the first impulse leg headed in the opposite direction is the one we should look for to help us enter almost risklessly with the trend. So far, however, none of the minor rallies this evening have exceeded the required two peaks.

GOOG – Google (Last:488.40)

by Rick Ackerman on September 17, 2009 5:56 am GMT

Google is too hot right now for us to play catch-up, but because we have a score to settle, we’ll be looking for any opportunity we can find to plunder the unwary.  The stock appears bound for 553.87, opening up the possibility of our buying cheap vertical spreads near the 550 strike.  The December spreads sell for a little more than three bucks, but we’ll want to pay no more than $1.50 or so. That will require legging into the spread, buy side first. Stay tuned, since the trade must be attempted when the stock is falling toward a Hidden Pivot retracement target.

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$ESM14 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1850.50)

by Rick Ackerman on April 17, 2014 7:52 am GMT

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$USM14 – June T-Bond (Last:134^06)

by Rick Ackerman on April 2, 2014 3:21 am GMT

We don’t pay much attention to this vehicle other than at key turning points, but the short-term pattern shown looks like a lay-up for traders who see futures contracts as no more than bouncing dots on a chart, waiting to be exploited. There are actually two trade possibilities here: 1) a ‘camouflage’ short as USM slips below the 132^13 midpoint; 2) and a very tightly stopped long from within a tick or two of the 131^17 target. Good luck!  Please report any fills in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. ______ UPDATE (3:17 p.m. ET): The short was tricky to initiate, but once aboard, your reward came quickly with a drop to a so-far low at  131^26. As noted above, the short should be covered and reversed near 131^17. ______ UPDATE (April 6, 3:57 p.m.): The low of Friday’s violent price swings was 131^21 — not quite close enough to have gotten you long easily. Although this could prove to be an important low for the short- to intermediate term, under the circumstances I’ll assume no subscribers were filled. _______ UPDATE (April 11, 1:03 a.m.): Next important stop on the way higher: 135^17.

HGK14 – May Copper (Last:2.9820)

by Rick Ackerman on March 31, 2014 12:20 am GMT

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SIDE BETS for Thursday

UNG – U.S. Natural Gas Fund (Last: 11.74)

by Rick Ackerman on September 17, 2009 5:03 am GMT

Yesterday’s high fell a nickel shy of an 11.93 target that leaps to the eye from the hourly chart.  If UNG should exceed that number on a closing basis, however, expect buyers to take it higher, to at least 12.45.


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