Here are two numbers to jot down if you’re interested in gold and the U.S. dollar: 75.47 and 72.93. Those are our current downside targets for the NYBOT Dollar Index, and we are quite confident that both will be reached in the fullness of time. The first lies just 1% below yesterday’s settlement price of 76.28; the second, 4.3% below it. Like you, we’ve heard many compelling arguments from dollar bulls and bears. Some think it is about to turn very strong, while others see a collapse. Our gut feeling is that the bulls will be right, » Read the full article
This tout will officially correct a downside target by a small amount, to 75.47.As noted in today’s commentary, I expect DXY to fall to that number and then to rally for a spell before plunging anew to 72.93. If the higher target is reached around the same time December Gold is hitting 1074, consider that a warning to lighten up on precious metals.
Late Wednesday night, the futures were playing toe-sies with a Hidden Pivot rally target at 9794 (see chart). The actual high so far is 9793, and it could go either way. Notice that I have used, not the one-off ‘A’ here, but the obvious one. That’s because I needed to project the highest target possible from the existing pattern. If it is exceeded, we’ll have to move up to the daily chart to find a rally pattern yet to play out. The most obvious one, going back to the March low, yields a bear rally objective of 10431.
Yesterday’s bullish forecast and target worked well enough for at least one subscriber, Phil D., to make money while he slept: “Bought three minis below 1010 with a stop below your C-point before going to bed, got up this morning and saw we’d bounced just a hair over 1022, so I sold 2 at 1018+. Not a bad return on sleeping. Given the low risk, it seems I should have bought more. Keep looking for that camouflage!” And so we shall, since the immediate forecast still calls for a rally to at least 1074. As of 10:51 p.m., a camouflage “alert” was in effect, since the abc retracement highlighted in the chart failed to reach its ”d’ target (or even its midpoint pivot). When this occurs, the first impulse leg headed in the opposite direction is the one we should look for to help us enter almost risklessly with the trend. So far, however, none of the minor rallies this evening have exceeded the required two peaks.
Google is too hot right now for us to play catch-up, but because we have a score to settle, we’ll be looking for any opportunity we can find to plunder the unwary. The stock appears bound for 553.87, opening up the possibility of our buying cheap vertical spreads near the 550 strike. The December spreads sell for a little more than three bucks, but we’ll want to pay no more than $1.50 or so. That will require legging into the spread, buy side first. Stay tuned, since the trade must be attempted when the stock is falling toward a Hidden Pivot retracement target.
The leaps have been opportunistic, powered by short-covering whenever the mood is right. Most of the time these days, however, the futures are taking mincing steps in both directions, creating a challenging environment for profit-seekers in the middle hours of the day. One thing to notice, however, is that the rallies, particularly in this vehicle, and whether weak or powerful, seldom proceed from the first signaled entry point. Instead, the ‘money trades’ launch from a second or third point-C lows of ABCD patterns, and they do it with such repetitious reliability that one can practically discard the first signaled entry opportunities routinely. This is the kind of price action we might expect when ‘everyone’ thinks that stocks will move higher on a given day. ‘Everyone’ can be right, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they can make money easily. For your interest today, I am including a chart that shows a modest rally target at 1895.00. I’m guessing it will be easier to get short there with a tight stop than to get long for the ride to it. However, because the futures will be in record territory at that point, we shouldn’t want to impede their progress too aggressively.
Since March 20, when GDXJ was trading for around $40, I have been looking for a potentially important low at 34.00. More recently, I revised that target to exactly 33.76, a ‘Hidden Pivot support’. Yesterday it came within a single penny of nailing the exact low of a vicious swoon. The low may or may not prove to be the last gasp of a correction that has been in progress for the last five weeks, but it stood to be an opportune place to try bottom-fishing. In that regard, quite a few subscribers reported getting aboard at or near the low, and so I’ve established a tracking position for their further guidance. It consists of 200 shares with a cost basis of 33.58. The price takes into account an initial purchase of 400 shares for 33.79, then the taking of a partial profit on half the position at 34.00. The bounce so far has hit 34.90, meaning GDXJ has trampolined $1.14 cents since hitting my three-week-old target. For now, traders should stop themselves out of the position if GDXJ breaches two prior lows on the 5-minute chart without an upward correction. As of this moment, that would imply placing the stop at 34.37 (and remember: it must be exceeded by an unbroken, downtrending leg). You should also offer a round lot (or half of the remaining position, whichever is greater) to close for 36.80, good-till-canceled. _______ UPDATE (11:38 p.m. ET): The herky-jerky spasms in the first 90 minutes altered our stop-loss so that it would have taken a 34.07 print to stop us out — 23 cents beneath the actual low. I’ll now suggest raising the bar by using an impulse leg-based stop-loss on the 30-minute chart. That would imply a fall today touching 34.29. Please note, however, that the stop could change if zig-zag action early in the session creates any distinctive new lows on the intraday charts. Our target for the next profit-taking interval is still 36.80.
We don’t pay much attention to this vehicle other than at key turning points, but the short-term pattern shown looks like a lay-up for traders who see futures contracts as no more than bouncing dots on a chart, waiting to be exploited. There are actually two trade possibilities here: 1) a ‘camouflage’ short as USM slips below the 132^13 midpoint; 2) and a very tightly stopped long from within a tick or two of the 131^17 target. Good luck! Please report any fills in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. ______ UPDATE (3:17 p.m. ET): The short was tricky to initiate, but once aboard, your reward came quickly with a drop to a so-far low at 131^26. As noted above, the short should be covered and reversed near 131^17. ______ UPDATE (April 6, 3:57 p.m.): The low of Friday’s violent price swings was 131^21 — not quite close enough to have gotten you long easily. Although this could prove to be an important low for the short- to intermediate term, under the circumstances I’ll assume no subscribers were filled. _______ UPDATE (April 11, 1:03 a.m.): Next important stop on the way higher: 135^17. _______ UPDATE (April 20, 11:10 p.m. ET): Last week’s fleeting stab to 135^10 came within less than a quarter-point of my target — close enough for us to consider it fulfilled. It took the futures more than a month to get there, so we should expect this correction-or-worse to last for at least a week or so before bulls attempt to push T-Bonds to new recovery highs.
Yesterday’s high fell a nickel shy of an 11.93 target that leaps to the eye from the hourly chart. If UNG should exceed that number on a closing basis, however, expect buyers to take it higher, to at least 12.45.