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COMMENTARY for Monday
TODAY'S ACTION for Monday
Rick's Picks for Monday
Gold is trading almost exactly where it was a month ago, unable at the moment to push above an 1011.90 resistance on the hourly chart to create a bullish impulse leg, but just as incapable of probing minor targets to the downside. Indeed, Friday’s low at 987.00 “should have” occurred nearly $12 lower, at 975.60, and the fact that the futures never even got close suggests that sellers lack conviction. By week’s end, however, we should expect to see the pressure ease so that the futures can begin their ascent to a 1074 target we’ve been using for some time as a minimum upside objective.
A thrust above a minor, 1034.75 peak made last Thursday on the way down is needed to get back in bullish gear, albeit a low one. Failing that, there doesn’t seem to be enough fear at the moment to produce follow-through selling the equal of the impulsive move we witnessed on Thursday. It may take a rally of one or two days’ duration to set the hook so that bulls can be reeled in, gutted and filleted.
The selloff from the recent high at 188 should be viewed as constructive, since it has followed the creation of a bullish impulse leg on the weekly chart. That said, Goldman has its work cut out for it, since the next push would have to reach a minimum 190.05, exceeding an important peak recorded in July of 2008, to refresh the bullish trend. A more important peak at 208.78 holds the key to whether the stock can pull the broad averages higher for the remainder of 2008 — and, probably, much of 2009.
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SIDE BETS for Monday
A midpoint support at 76.70 on the hourly chart must hold if the Dollar Index is to avoid relapsing down to 76.31 as the new week begins.
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A Bad Time to Put the Knock on Gold?
by Rick Ackerman on October 5, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 5 comments
“Gold Is Still a Lousy Investment,” proclaimed a Wall Street Journal headline over the weekend. Does this sound like sour grapes, or what? It ran atop a feature by Dave Kansas in weekend editions. Kansas, who used to work for Jim Cramer, is currently European markets editor for the Journal. We wonder what could have possessed him at this moment to do a hit-job on gold, since it is one of the only investment assets to survive the global asset crash of the last several years. It is also one of just a small handful of investment assets that is still worth more than in 1999. Much more, actually. And most recently, no » Read the full article