Sunday, October 11, 2009

Are U.S. Stocks and Gold About to Go Ballistic?

– Posted in: Free

Are U.S. stocks and gold about to scream higher?  Our good friend Chuck Cohen, a NYC-based financial consultant specializing in gold shares, thinks so. Although Chuck’s outlook is more dramatic than our own, we find his arguments quite plausible. Here he is, a bear turned unapologetically bullish, with some advice for investors -- especially those who have been dithering over taking the plunge in mining stocks:  Since I  have felt that the markets of the world are at a very important junction, I wanted to put out my revised views that connect with the near-term price of gold. With the stock market’s powerful, seven-month-old recovery closing on DOW 10,000, and gold bursting through $1000, many investors are anxiously wondering what’s next. Most seem to be very wary. I was a bear myself until a few weeks ago but recently reversed this stance. Yes, I know, there’s nothing more bearish than when bears start turning bullish. And I am aware that monumental structural defects remain. But the more I looked at the big picture, the less credible predictions of imminent collapse seemed. Two key technical signs were missing. First, sentiment indicators lacked that excessive euphoria that has highlighted the recent market tops.  This week, one of the more important short-term barometers, the weekly AAII survey, had more bears than bulls. Also, many of the other indicators reported in Barron’s are stuck in the middle ranges, show no signs of excess. And over the weekend, in the New York Times’ quarterly review of mutual funds, there was this cautious headline to alarm contrarians: "Maybe We're Getting Ahead of Ourselves". As the stock market has risen, it is clear that sentiment has turned more muted and cautious. But more telling still are the stock charts. As I recently surveyed the excellent charts published by