Friday, November 6, 2009

I can't recall a time Goldman went so many days without generating any bullish impulse legs on its hourly chart, and the apparent short-squeeze drought has forced us to use the lowly 15-minute chart for purposes of analysis.  That's the only place where the stock has been able to make it happen, albeit barely. You can see a rally pattern projecting to 174.79, but we'll be better able to judge whether there is buying power percolating underneath if the stock can push past that Hidden Pivot within 30 or so minutes of first touching it. Better still would be for the implied thrust to take out the 176.49 look-to-the-left peak while it's at it.

Someone in the chat room remarked that Newmont was tracing out a "triple-top tower of doom," so I thought I'd have a look myself.  He's right about one thing: the stock has been consolidating for long enough to raise doubts. The potentially good new is that Newmont wouldn't need a huge rally to be back on top of the world. Specifically, a mere thrust to  50.86-- seven percent above yesterday's settlement price -- would refresh the bullish impulse on the daily chart, exceeding a peak along the "wall" of 2008's summer collapse.

The futures have been scuddling sideways for two days, biding their time as a short squeeze has played out in the broad averages. However, my minimum upside target for the near-term remains unchanged: 1111.90.  I'd turn cautious at that point and remain so until we see a close above 1114.50, a Hidden Pivot that comes from the monthly composite chart. A decisive push out of this resistance zone would indicate 1134.50, a target first broached here a while back.  Most immediately, night owls will be bucking heavy chop and a weak ceiling at 1097.80, the target of a minor uptrend.  Entry has already been triggered at 1090.25 and is subject to midpoint obstruction at 1092.70.  A pullback from within a few ticks above that number would offer some camouflage, but you may hav to act quickly to employ a buy-stop entry.

The hourly chart leaves little room for conjecture, since a rally target at 1071.00 meets all the rules. The futures easily got past the 1055.00 midpoint pivot, implying the target is in-the-bag.  Assuming it is reached, any further projections will be based on how quickly the futures chew through it. However, if buyers act like this hidden resistance isn't there, my bias would turn moderately bullish -- an upgrade from my current, go-along bullishness.  Shorts from 1071.00 can use a stop-loss at 1072.25. _______ UPDATE (8:46 a.m.):  The rally went to 1069.50, and although the 1071.00 target is still valid in theory, I wouldn't advise trying to short "sloppy seconds". It is not a bullish sign that DaBoyz had to abandon this morning's sleazy short-squeeze project just shy of the target.

Here is the latest from Chuck Cohen, a New York-based financial consultant who specializes in gold investments. At bottom is a speculative recommendation of a small but well-positioned mining company.   We should note that we do not share Chuck’s bullishness on the stock market, even though we are quite bullish on physical gold and silver. Also, while Chuck believes inflation is about to explode, we see deflation ruling the economy as long as real estate remains in a possibly permanent funk.  Here’s Chuck:  Despite all the dire warnings, I’m convinced the stock market will continue to advance. This has implications for gold, since, as long as shares are moving higher, I am confident that gold will move higher as well. Moreover, the incredible gold fundamentals are about to be reflected in an acceleration in price that so far has been slow, measured and frustrating. At the conclusion I have made another gold exploration recommendation: Moneta Porcupine (OTC symbol: MCUPF).  This company appears well poised for the extremely bullish scenario that I foresee.      ‘I’m a Contrarian’  First, I am at my technical core a contrarian. I have found that the majority of opinions in the media and in polls, especially at major market turning points, tend to be wrong; not always, but fairly consistently. That is why, when we read confident predictions of where the markets are heading, we should read them skeptically, especially when there is some kind of consensus. What we should now realize is that the stock market normally will do what we don't anticipate it to do. Or as Richard Russell continuously warns, it will do everything it can to take your money. That is why so few really succeed at it. For instance, at the top of the manias that gripped our markets over the past