Having waited patiently since May for Comex Gold to reach an important target at 1174.90, we are naturally interested in what comes next, since the December contract peaked yesterday at exactly 1174.00.  We say “peaked,” and while this is technically correct because a $16 selloff has ensued so far, that’s hardly enough pain to have sent gold bulls into fits of panic or despair. In fact, the selloff looks and feels like little more than a minor flutter in a bull market that presumably has much farther to go.  Even so, we shall treatyesterday’s high as a potentially important top for the time being because that is our custom. Specifically, whenever a stock or commodity reaches an important “Hidden Pivot” target, we assume that’s the end of the line unless the target itself is subsequently exceeded on a closing basis or decisively intraday.   

Although Rick’s Picks subscribers tend to anticipate these targets with a lot of speculative fervor, and to reward each other with verbal high-fives when they are hit exactly, the exactness is a kind of parlor trick that distracts from the targets’ true usefulness. Granted, it’s nice to have a place to get perhaps briefly short in gold without having to risk more than pocket change. In that regard, the 1174.90 pivot was a magic number for scalpers and day traders. But the target’s main purpose was twofold: 1) keeping us steadfastly bullish since mid-May, when gold refreshed a buy signal from five months earlier by hitting a technical tripwire at 946; and 2) allowing long-term bulls to manage the risk of their positions as the target drew nearer.  

Riding Out Setbacks 

Keeping 1174.90 well in mind since last spring, steadfastly bullish we remained, even though December Gold got thrown for painful losses, each lasting for at least two weeks, no fewer than four times since May. In each instance, we reassured subscribers (and the public, since the forecast was reiterated in this space numerous times) that no lasting harm would befall long-term bulls, at least not before gold reached 1174.90. 

So now that the target has been achieved, where to next? Most immediately, although there’s a chance that the December futures could head-fake their way to a marginal new all-time high at 1185.50 before they correct in earnest, that wouldn’t change a big picture that has more or less exhausted its bullish potential for the near-to-intermediate term.  That doesn’t mean gold cannot go still higher from here, only that if it does, we’ll need to consider even longer-term charts to come up with a new target.  It is on the weekly and monthly charts that we can find patterns of greater degree than the one that has just played on the daily chart. Looking at the longer time frames, while we don’t see any price patterns as clear and compelling as the one that provided safe passage to 1174.00, there is one at 1337.20 that will do in a pinch. It comes from the weekly chart and begins with an obscure low at 417.10 that was recorded in June 2005.  Barring any serious technical setbacks, that is where we shall infer Comex Gold is headed if the lesser resistance at 1174.90 gets shredded and left in the dust. 

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