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COMMENTARY for Tuesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Tuesday
PICK OF THE DAY for Tuesday
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Rick's Picks for Tuesday
Someone in the chat room said the bullish tripwire I’ve set at 1154.60 is a bit ambitious, and I agree. But nothing less than that will do if we are to be “sure” that the correction is over. Even so, opportunities to get long speculatively with almost no risk abound, and I’ve have sketched just such a one in the accompanying chart. Remember, an impulse leg need only exceed one internal and one external peak to qualify as such, and the subtler the better. “Subtle” is what you will see in this chart, and it is patterns like this one that will allow you to test the water a half-dozen times a day, initiating speculative long positions that are likely to make you a small profit even if you’re wrong and the futures fail to get airborne. There are a dozen people in the chat room intraday who know how to use patterns like the one shown, so don’t hesitate to ask if you’re not sure.
Da Sleazeballs manipulated all of yesterday’s gains in the space of 15 minutes on Sunday night. This means that almost no one got on board and that bears had to spend all of Monday playing a tedious game of cat-and-mouse to get at least some of their shorts back. What surprises is that Da Dirtballs were unable to achieve any follow-through with more short-squeezing intraday. On balance, shorts appear to be in just enough trouble to provide buoyancy even with relatively little help from merely bullish buyers. If so, look for the next squeeze to push the futures up to 1117.25, a Hidden Pivot that can be shorted with a stop-loss as tight as 1.00 point. The 1110.75 HP midpoint has been exceeded tonight by a single tick — not enough for us to consider it busted, but close enough to affirm the correctness of our target.
On the hourly chart, January Crude has exceeded the lowest target I could have projected, 68.85 (A=82.58, October 21). The overshoot was 26 cents, a nickel more than the 21 cent- leeway I usually give this exceptionally ornery vehicle at ‘D’ targets. What it implies is that Crude may be about to break down on the weekly chart, creating a bearish impulse leg by cracking prior lows from September 25 (66.10) and July 17 (63.05).
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
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Some Key Numbers to Watch in Gold
by Rick Ackerman on December 15, 2009 3:47 am GMT · 4 comments
This has been a great year for gold, but investors can’t seem to shake the jitters they acquired in 2008, when prices plunged 35% between March and October after poking briefly above $1000 for the first time. Is last week’s 10% selloff the beginning of another murderous correction? We don’t think so, although it could take a few more weeks for prices to consolidate for the next strong push. But more immediately, we expect the Comex February contract to ease to a minimum $1090 in the days ahead. That would represent a » Read the full article