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Wednesday’s wildly idiotic price action reminded us of the days when the bonds were wont to act as though they had to do “something” nutty every time the Fed came out with a “more-of-the-same” announcement. Yesterday brought more more-of-the-same “news” from the Fed, and gold traders went nuts for an hour before it dawned on them that the central bank’s plan to keep administered rates exactly where they are was not exactly earth-shaking news. Later in the day, around 7:40 p.m. EST, February Gold had recovered completely from its swoon and was poking above the spiky intraday high at 1142.50. A no-brainer target at 1147.30 can serve as a minimum upside objective for Wednesday night (see chart). That would get the futures past the first of three peaks immediately above, but at least one more peak would need to be smashed to imply that the correction is over. Above 1147.50, the next interesting pivot is 1155.00. ______ UPDATE (12:32 p.m. EST): The futures are down $10 from their highs in deference to tonight’s surge in the dollar. The pullback is not yet impulsive on the 15-minute chart, even, so you could say that Gold is holding up pretty well so far under the circumstances. The 1147.30 target that had looked so promising would be negated by a print below 1129.30, a mere dollar beneath tonight’s so-far low. FURTHER UPDATE (3:10 p.m. EST): The 1090.20 target I proffered here a while back is still the one to care about. I said I wouldn’t touch February Gold until it hit that price, but an 1102.30 Hidden Pivot support that I posted in the chat room was too tempting to pass up. I advised exiting this scalp-trade at 1106.50, but the rally carried an additional $4, to 1109.60, before gold resumed its familiar trajectory.
ow gold minimum , as I originally had thought.
The futures looked bound for at least 17.905 over the near term, but if they take out that Hidden Pivot without much effort, the rally could go to 18.040 or even 18.120. Some important peaks lie at 17.910 and 18.050, and shorts would be toast if they are exceeded by an unpaused thrust by tomorrow.
A Hidden Pivot just above, at 45.44, has the potential to be a bear-rally stopper. Accordingly, we’ll plan on getting short when the target is closely approached by buying four January 45 puts (QQQMS). They should be trading for around 0.90, but the best way to determine their fair price is to monitor the bid/asked spread when QQQQ gets within 20 or so cents of the target. I am not suggesting a stop-loss on this trade because it seems highly unlikely to me that the Cubes will simply blow past the target. Mark this order good-till-canceled.
Hidden Pivot obstacles loom at 77.42 and 77.53, and we should be able to tell how much more buying power is left to drive this rally once we’ve seen DXY interact with them. The latter number is doubly important, since it lies just above a key peak at 77.47 recorded on October 2. Looking at a much bigger picture on the weekly chart, the trend could continue to as high as 83.33 without affecting the likelihood that the uptrend since March 2008 has been just a garden-variety bear rally. _______ UPDATE (12:23 a.m.): DXY has blown the roof off resistance in night trading, taking out all three resistance points noted above. Since there has yet to be a pullback, the full power of the impulse leg begun from 74.27 on December 1 has yet to be revealed.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.









Are U.S. and China Together on Gold?
by Rick Ackerman on December 17, 2009 12:01 am GMT · 21 comments
With Time magazine’s momentous selection of Ben Bernanke as Person of the Year, there were reports of people dancing in the streets in, um, Oslo. Leave it to Time to figure out a way to make Henry Luce roll in his grave while the magazine tries to outdo rival Newsweek in the race to claim publishing’s trophy for irrelevance. While the understandably isolated delirium over Bernanke’s selection subsides, we thought we’d update the prospectus on gold with a contribution from a Rick’s Picks subscriber who has requested anonymity. His thoughts run counter to the popular notion that investors can count on steady buying from China to lend » Read the full article