GOOG – Google (Last:601.12)

A while back, I identified a Hidden Pivot at 607.28 as a minimum rally target, suggestion that you short this chazzerai when it hit our number.  That day has nearly arrived, and the bet is still on.  Short by buying two January 570 puts  (GOPMN), day order.  You can use a 1.90 limit order today if you want to park the order with a broker. However, this estimate is subjective and may go unfilled if put-option volatility rises as GOOG rallies toward the target.  I’ve included a snapshot of an options calculator with a 21.1 implied volatility that closely approximates the option’s actual volatility with the stock trade about $6 shy of our target.  The best way to get a fair price on the option, however, is to eschew calculations and simply position your bid so that it is in line with the spread as GOOG approaches the target. _______ UPDATE (1:00 p.m.EST):  I’ve issued a “sell” order in the chat room, since GOOG trashed the target after slightly exceeding it on an opening gap.  A chat-roomer reported paying 2.35 for the puts — reflecting a volatility explosion as GOOG climbed, and so there would be a $50 loss on the trade if exited on a 2.10 bid.  It was possible to avoid the loss, however, and perhaps to come away with a small profit, if you used the initial pullback to 605.00 after the target was hit to take a partial gain.