Let’s see if we’ve got this right: Traders pummeled gold on Friday, sending it down $66 an ounce, because unemployment reportedly downticked to 10 percent, implying the U.S. economy is strengthening, which would be bullish for the U.S. dollar, which would be bearish for gold. That’s the theory of it, anyway – and never mind the fact that no one in America outside of newsrooms even remotely believes whatever unemployment statistic the Labor Department concocts from one month to the next; and even less do they believe it when said statistic purports to show that the economy is improving. Wall Street pros pretended to believe it, though — for just long enough to short-squeeze bears at the opening bell. But look at what happened next: After only 30 minutes on the rack, the bears went limp, suddenly becoming unavailable to help unwittingly foster the bizarre illusion that no investor can afford to delay buying stocks at these “bargain” levels.
But what has changed, really? Answer: nothing. If you were bullish on gold Thursday before it swan-dived, then you should still be bullish now. Gold still enjoys enormous support from sovereign buyers around the world who are rightfully concerned about the soundness of the dollar. And it still represents the best hedge against an all-out global effort by the central banks to avoid deflation at any cost.
Strong Hands
In the meantime, do you think buyers from China, India, Russia and Brazil (BRIC) were dumping bullion on Friday? Of course they weren’t. But we can hardly blame them for stepping aside as gold fell on the kind of news that any thinking investor would recognize as meaningless. The same strong hands that have been buying gold since $300 an ounce will be hoping for more panic-driven selling on Monday, and so should we. The bull market in precious metals remains very much intact, notwithstanding a phony downtick in a statistic that understates unemployment by half to begin with. If that’s the kind of news that drives markets, we would do well to tune it out and simply focus on the charts. They told us within 40 cents where Wednesday’s peak would occur, and they will tell us with equal clarity when this correction is ending.
(If you’d like to have Rick’s Picks commentary delivered free each day to your e-mail box, click here.)
Rick,
I read an article recently http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15600.html which spoke of a severe correction in gold, taking it down to $640/oz. Any thoughts on this?
Tom
&&&&&&
I try to tune out noise from other gurus completely, Tom, but I just don’t see it. The factors that have been driving gold have not changed and will only continue to intensify. That doesn’t rule out the possibility of a nasty correction, but that’s what any ridiculously overdone selloff would be: just a correction. RA