Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
COMMENTARY for Thursday
TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday
Rick's Picks for Thursday
When I projected a low in February Gold at 1107.70 yesterday morning in the chat room, I was pretty confident the Hidden Pivot support would be reached, since its midpoint sibling at 1122.50 had been exceeded by a very decisive $4, and because the pattern itself was close to perfect. Instead, and much to my surprise, the futures turned on a dime at 1118.50, seemingly in the middle of nowhere, gaining $27 by the bell. After-hours trading pushed the rally the few ticks higher needed to trigger the breakout above 1138.60 that I’d been looking for. If you were looking for camouflage to get aboard at that point, although it came with great subtlety, as long as you applied the simple rules, it wasn’t hard to find or to use (see inset). Looking ahead to Thursday, we should take encouragement if yesterday’s precipitous reversal racks up a couple more “external” peaks to solidify the uptrend. That would imply a print at 1158.40 at a minimum, and it would put a midpoint resistance at 1175.00 in play thereafter as our minimum upside objective. That number is part of a pattern begun from 1028.00 just before Halloween, and if it completes to the target, that would imply 1274.70.
Silver is tracing out a rally pattern somewhat different from gold’s. The immediate target is 19.030, and if it’s hit, that would remedy nagging doubts that surfaced when the stock surged on Monday without knocking off the external peak at 18.990 recorded on December 4 (see inset). If a rally today exceeds the target by more than three tickets, we could confidently infer that the key high at 19.500 from December 2 will not long endure.
It took two months for a well advertised Hidden Pivot target at 1149.50 to be reached, and so we ought to be impressed by the fact that the futures appear to be getting second wind just three days later. If and when they break out above 1149.50, a Hidden Pivot at 1166.00 will make a logical target. It would be subject to confirmation by a possible stall at its sibling midpoint, 1147.00.
The Dollar Index has traced out some fiendish patterns recently, but I like the one shown, which promises to deliver 76.08 to the downside. Notice in the chart how all three coordinates — A, B and C — are delicately carved from single bars. The midpoint support has already gotten pasted, hinting of more weakness to come.
Price action has been so lame since Thanksgiving that you could almost get to feeling sorry for the little sumbitch (if not necessarily for Goldman’s officers). The long-term chart is hard to get excited about, especially if you are short the stock or perhaps intending to get short. As much could be said for the bullish case, so we’ll leave the stock alone for a while. A steep surge hitting 185 would change the picture significantly, however, and so I’ve set an alert there.
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
This Just In... for Thursday
Another interesting report out from Auerbach Grayson. Click here to access their latest, a ten-pager advanced as follows:
“Rich Ross our Technical Strategist prepared the attached document last night. Read all of it please to see that the resonance of higher markets is ubiquitous not just in NY and Zurich but also in Bucharest, Istanbul, Colombo, Almaty, Caracas, and Tallin. Is the world awash in money? (check your pockets?). If in fact you need a glib answer look no further than the estimable Mr. Blankfein who during yesterday’s testimony by The Four Amigos said, ‘Money became plentiful, and so people paid less attention to risk’. Oh, ok, now we know about the money, but just for a reality check here, are we really floating on a sea of money or in fact is there a case that away from the Wall St factories there is an immutable momentum of real productivity and growth out there. We think so and it continues to deliver the levelling of the global economic playing field. By the way, today’s subject line’s first use is attributed to JFK in a campaign speech in 1960. Clearly a call at that time for government spending, it was later perverted by Laffer as a tenet for Reagan trickle-down economics.”
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on Feb. 29th - Mar. 1st. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Our Man at Ringside Sees Epic Battle in Gold
by Rick Ackerman on January 14, 2010 3:31 am GMT · 7 comments
The big boys have been trading body blows in gold, producing a lot of violence but no clear winner, at least not yet. We expect the buyers to prevail eventually, and we’d suggest that you take the odds if you find someone with enough misplaced confidence to bet the “Don’t” line. Still, we’d be the first to concede that sellers can pound bullion quotes mercilessly on a given day if the news is right. Remember in early December when they socked Comex futures for a $60 loss on “news” that the Government’s made-up unemployment number had dropped by two-tenths of a percentage point, to 10 percent? That was on a Friday, » Read the full article