GOP Victory Could Energize Wall Street

Traders should brace for a celebration on Wall Street Wednesday if Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown wins Teddy Kennedy’s seat in the U.S. Senate. A Brown victory in Tuesday’s special election would destroy the Democrats’ filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, and with it President Obama’s damn-the-torpedoes effort to steer the country hard-left.  Derailing the Democrats’ machine would come as good news to Wall Street, since there is probably no area of investment opportunity that is not being eyed as a source of new tax revenues by Congressional liberals. Investors aside, the entire nation could breathe a sigh of relief if Brown is able to make good on his promise to stop the trillion-dollar healthcare boondoggle from becoming law. He has campaigned heavily on this issue, although the election will offer a broader referendum on the policies of Mr. Obama and a Democrat Congress run amok.

Scott-Brown

As of Monday evening, nearly all pollsters gave Brown the edge, which averaged around six percentage points. But Democrats were working feverishly at the eleventh hour to turn things around, manning the phone banks and ringing doorbells, and the election was deemed too close to predict.  Just a month ago, few would have imagined Brown had even a remote chance of capturing a seat that has been a Kennedy fiefdom for nearly 60 years. Massachusetts is among the very bluest states, and Brown’s ability to stir things up is clear evidence that the voters, including leftists who see him as insufficiently “progressive,”  are in outright revolt against Mr. Obama.

It remained to be seen whether a near-miss by Brown would cause enough Congressional Democrats to switch their votes on health care to scuttle the bill. Up till now, Democratic Party leaders have appeared to accept the likelihood that fallout from passage of the hugely unpopular bill – it is supported by only a third of the voters — would cost some Democrats their seats in 2010.  But the mere possibility of a Republican victory in Massachusetts must be scary to many Democratic incumbents, since it is such a political aberration. Exit polls will not likely tell us enough on Tuesday to affect the markets, but by mid-evening there should be enough information to drive index futures one way or the other. If Brown looks like the winner, it will be the first glimmer of hope and change that investors have seen since Mr. Obama took office. [Click here for a tangentially related story:  “Sen. Ben Nelson Booed Out of a an Omaha Pizza Parlor”.]

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  • K. Huller January 23, 2010, 2:04 pm

    @rmsimc:

    Quote: ‘ Without the bailout the Left would be stuck in the mud.’

    It seems the entire system will be stuck in the mud. If Obama gets his way now, it will probably be stuck on the port side of the channel which is still relatively unknown. Should the Republicans get their way, then it will be stuck on the starboard side of the channel which ist very well known since 1930. Maybe the ship will touch ground first on one side and be frantically steered around to end up on the opposite side. But I think the final outcome will be more or less the same in all these cases.

    Quote: ‘As for healthcare, any businessman can see that the numbers do not add up without a significant degree of rationing.’

    The point ist: How many resources go into the system and how many ill people get out of it cured. I think there are lots of private amd public (and private/public) health systems which do much better than the US health system. And better than the health system in my country which is not far behind in the race for waste. Or should we call it not waste but economic progress, if health system money flows straight into the pockets of lobbyists instead of flowing into treatments of maladies?

    Quote: ‘I’m surprised you are posting on a capatalistic financial website such as Rick’s.’

    I think the debate of ‘Left’ vs. ‘Right’ ist a bit like a debate over the merits of a Bad King (sorry: bank) vs. the merits of a Good King (sorry: bank) shortly before the collapse of monarchy (sorry: bankruptcy). Quite the same is to oppose ‘capitalistic financial’ websites to ‘capitalistic non-financial’ and to ‘non-capitalistic’ ones. ‘Financial’ and ‘capitalistic’ lose all sense in a trillion to quadrillion dollar default. We need urgently a different way to get along – together.

    Quote: ‘Unless you plan on growing younger, you had better be careful what you wish for.’

    1789 in France they finally wanted the King’s head and got it. This project ran completely out of control as we know today. The Russian events in 1917 turned out even worse. It’s time to try a controlled way of change. Especially with the amount of nuclear weapons in today’s world.

    K.H.

  • Samel January 21, 2010, 8:25 pm

    Rick wrote “Derailing the Democrats’ machine would come as good news to Wall Street, since there is probably no area of investment opportunity that is not being eyed as a source of new tax revenues by Congressional liberals.”
    Congressional liberals like McCain who supports illegal amnesty and restricting gun rights?
    Brown now calls McCain a hero and Brown says we need gov’t health. Brown voted for RomneyCare socialized medicine, so there should not be any surprises about his liberal votes to be made in Congress.

    To Martin Snell, a big solution is to return to representation as it was meant to be. Check out http://www.thirty-thousand.org/ for a solution by implementing the past.

  • ben January 20, 2010, 7:03 am

    Rick…when I heard Cramer say it I dismissed it as his usual permabull BS…but you?

    What grounds do you have for saying that the Dems losing their filibuster-proof majority will lead to a market rally? After all, the market rallied well over 50% on the heels of the Dems gaining that filibuster-proof majority…now you say it will go up more because they are losing it? Make up your mind…if you think the market is just going higher no matter what just say so…but to say it is going to rise because of this election makes you sound like a Cramer.

    On a more fundamental basis…since much of the money flowing into the economy has come off the government printing press, I see any obstruction to this spending as putting a crimp on the economy. In fact, it is highly deflationary…and thus bad for the stock market, albeit in some abstract sense it might be good for America in that it could delay the inevitable hyperinflation that is in our future. BTW…don’t forget that we are just about $150 billion away form the revised debt limit, and the Republicans will now have some power by virtue of their option to filibuster an attempt to raise the debt limit. This should become an issue by March.

    &&&&&

    What grounds do I have, Ben? I simply took a guess and guessed wrong. As I explained in this morning’s E-Mini tout, Brown’s victory evidently had been so confidently anticipated on Wall Street that it was a case of buy the rumor, sell the news. You could say I was correct about the implications of a Brown victory, but a day early. If I’d known Cramer agreed, however, I might have thought twice about it.

    You may be right about the longer-term, deflationary implications of a more bipartisan Congress. Filibustering an increase in the debt limit sounds like a great idea, although it carries the risk of making the GOP seem too obstructionist. If the tactic is used to reorder budget priorities, however, it could be a winner.

    RA

  • stockabcde January 20, 2010, 4:52 am

    Brown won…..this is a vote of no con for Obama and his Bankers

  • Martin Snell January 20, 2010, 2:32 am

    Well Rick, like you I expected some sniper fire, but surprisingly little showed up. (Thanks for leaving the comment up). People seem to realize that it is the system that is broken, no matter who is in charge. Big money runs the place, not the people.

    It is not really Obama’s fault (as much as some folk want to demonize him), it is a system that required him to buy off big pharma and big insurance before anything even started (to avoid being savaged by attack ads on TV paid for by people’s insurance premiums and drug plans). It really is a disgusting mess.

    Maybe a start is a 500% tax on funds spent on lobbying, and a limit to spending on election campaigns. But no that would limit free (oh, I mean paid for) speech.

  • Christ T. January 20, 2010, 12:43 am

    to johnjay:
    “At some point, we will face a similar tragedy due to the San Andreas or New Madrid faults.”

    Similar? We could only hope so. Compared to that inevitable SF-1906 magnitude quake in CA, today’s Haiti will look like a hick-up.

    15-20mio in SoCal alone, without food, water, shelter, etc, the remains of an already decrepit infrastructure destroyed, and a populace not even remotely used to hardship, unlike the Haitians, will dwarf in breadth and depth what we see in Haiti now.

    Seeing how expertly we handled the TINY by comparison problem of the Gulf Coast during Catrina, that CA quake will seem to be the 4 horsemen on approach.

  • Christ T. January 20, 2010, 12:33 am

    To donniemac:

    With your statement:
    “…many aspects of modern living are collectively so large that only the Federal government can realistically manage them. I used to think that we did not need laws to protect people from themselves, but I have finally come to the conclusion that those laws not only protect people from themselves, but also protect me from those unfortunates, and also idiots. who cannot save for their non earning years”

    You have just provided much clearer and better definition for FASCISM than Don F. has found on wikipedia.
    And you CLEARLY lay out why this development will sneak up on this country, with such complacency (complicity?) as you show here.
    Sad to see this manifest in the one place on earth that once stood for liberty and individual rights AND responsibilities.

    As to Keynesian ECONIMICS:
    Far be it for me to criticze your spelling, I make plenty of typos-on-the-go here on Rick’s Picks, but this one of yours is a most APT typo, it says it all about the man’s crazy notions.

    If you are wondering WHY the world is so expensive (as you point out too), then that man and his nut-job theories, is a root cause, no matter how many “economists” receive the Nobel Prize for regurgitating Keynes yet again (just see the 2008 recipient! as an example…)

  • johnjay January 19, 2010, 8:37 pm

    Since the United States is effectively bankrupt, I no longer vote or have any interest in politics except as a Simpsons like entertainment vehicle.
    The Federal Government exists in a strange, alternate universe where POTUS Obama just willy nilly pledges $100 million to help Haiti, and decides to bring more poverty stricken refugees to these shores. We don’t have $100 million to spend on even the best of causes. We have plenty of poverty stricken citizens of our own that we need to take care of. He also plans to spend $700 billion on Defense. We don’t have $700 billion either. He very likely will pledge more billions to rebuild Haiti. We don’t have that money either. Haiti is a tragic situation, but the world is full of tragedy. Anyone of us, regardless of our wealth, could easily spend themselves to poverty in 12 hours, all of it on worthy causes. If you should choose to spend it on Haiti, by all means feel free to do so. At some point, we will face a similar tragedy due to the San Andreas or New Madrid faults. Who will help us rebuild?

  • Edward0 January 19, 2010, 6:57 pm

    If you want spot one, here’s your man.

    http://www.joebageant.com/joe/2010/01/taking-tea-with-the-lizards.html#more

    An excerpt:

    Taking Tea with the Lizards
    By Joe Bageant
    Ajijic, Jalisco, Mexico

    The Republican Party will beat the living piss out of anybody for a buck. The Democrats will fly the flag of FDR, even as they pirate the public coffers on behalf of Wall Street. Don’t think the American people have not noticed these things. After thirty years of pistol whipping and emptying of their wallets, they’ve started to figure out there just may be a public robbery underway, with both parties as accomplices.

    And so Americans at both ends of the political spectrum are finally wising up to the need for a third party. Even if it is a third party within their own party, which is no third party at all, of course.

  • Tom Paine January 19, 2010, 6:11 pm

    The US consistently ranks near or at the very bottom for developed countries in measures of health and satisfaction with the health care system. If this current reform package sucks and the people are against it, it is because the drug and insurance companies have blocked the kind of reform that could really work and brain washed the sheeple with endless propoganda.

    For those who are supposed to be free marketeers and hard money advocates who are salivating over Republican gains in the next election, just remember who closed the gold window, who set us on the path of “borrow and spend” excess, who got us into two budget busting foreign entanglements, who bailed out the “too big to fail” institutions that overleveraged themselves into failure.

    I’m disappointed in Obama, but not because he is steering the nation towards the “hard left”, which I wouldn’t like either, but because he is continuing the same crony capitalist, militarist policies of the Bush administration.

    To be fair there is enough blame to go around for both parties, but I don’t see how anybody could feel like a return to republican power is an answer to anything except if you are very wealthy and expect that perhaps they might tax the rich less than the Dems would. I guess I can’t blame you there. BUT, please don’t pretend it is for the good of the country.

    If the GOP were going to follow Ron Paul’s lead, maybe I’d follow with some reservations. Whatever happens though there is going to be wicked reckoning, so I guess maybe better we face it sooner than later.

  • Dusty January 19, 2010, 6:07 pm

    No matter which political party is in power, the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. Isn’t it about time you guys woke up to realize it doesn’t matter who is elected because there is someone behind the curtains pulling the strings?

    Dusty

  • rmsimc January 19, 2010, 4:53 pm

    Martin Snell:

    I’m surprised you are posting on a capatalistic financial website such as Rick’s. You obviously do not read him often…if you had, you would know that the bank bailout is funding the Left’s rising debt through the carry trade. Without the bailout the Left would be stuck in the mud. As for healthcare, any businessman can see that the numbers do not add up without a significant degree of rationing. Unless you plan on growing younger, you had better be careful what you wish for.

    I for one am happy to see the public outrage associated with the frightening power grab that is underway. Most did not sign up for this type of “hope and change” and “transparency” and are determined to recall the product. Move to Copenhagen if you want what you have discussed, Martin Snell, as we are having none of it!!!

    Rick…spot-on as usual.

  • Edward0 January 19, 2010, 4:53 pm

    Tax policy? If you look at so called tax policy in isolation you will get a very skewed notion
    of just how much you are paying as a result of the actions of your favored Republicans. They are costing you in so many other ways that make a mockery of the putative benefits of their tax policy.

  • DonF January 19, 2010, 4:51 pm

    Really? Hard left?

    Liberal, conservative, dem, rep, left, right! Call it what you like. I know who steals my wealth and my children’s wealth. CLUE! It is not the “hard left”!

    Do you call bailing out the wealthiest people and corporations in the country a turn towards the “hard left”? Do you call a healthcare system that insures that the biggest corporations profit tremendously from human misery “hard left”?

    We are fed, day and night, so much disinformation that no one can tell just what side we’re on except by following the money. Or by checking Wikipedia…

    From Wikipedia: Fascism, pronounced /ˈfæʃɪzəm/, is a political ideology that seeks to combine radical and authoritarian nationalism[1][2][3][4] with a corporatist economic system,[5] and which is usually considered to be on the far right of the traditional left-right political spectrum.

    Does that definition fit what we currently have as a government? It seems the one percent at the top have a way of getting THEIR way, to the detriment of The People.We certainly are moving farther and farther away from government of The People, by The People, and for The People.

  • goodsport January 19, 2010, 3:10 pm

    Government may run public schools, but after a while, even the most unsophisticated voter will wake up when it hits the wallet and pocketbook. Here in Taxachusetts, I’ve recently witnessed life long liberals sending anti healthcare and anti Zer0bama emails and the like. Teddy got off lightly and did not live long enough to experience the impact of the destructive seeds he and the DemocRATS planted over the past 47 years. The compound effect of understating the cost of living by 5% since the Clinton years has finally caught up with us. Stimulus funds are wasted when they are not directed at self liquidating investments. The stench of the phony bonuses at Goldman and AIG type bailouts can’t be suppressed. Government can’t handle what’s on its plate and still wants more. There are almost as many Americans on the take as are paying taxes. Hopefully the nation can turn away from this socialistic destruction before it’s too late. I will not vote till this evening so that my wife, daughters and I can march to the polls and make a family statement. I challenge all Americans to begin using their influence – financial and personal – to help revitalize a spirit of Capitalism in the companies they work and on main street America.

  • donniemac January 19, 2010, 12:11 pm

    I would not consider most of the 44 million who pay no earnings taxes lucky. I doubt very seriously that you would trade your social/economic status for theirs.

  • donniemac January 19, 2010, 12:07 pm

    All I know is the “one trillion dollar boondoggle” argument is a big fat red herring. Those who have insurance already are paying premiums for that coverage. That amount will offset the fore mentioned figure. If the argument that this is going to increase Federal spending by that amount, and that is what people believe, then the next suspension of all logic is that we, the USA, is planning on spending all of our GDP on health care. And that is not true.
    The problem is we need to have a total overhaul of the Federal system, from how we raise revenues – IMHO more consumption taxes and less earning taxes- to how we provide basic services, defense, discretionary spending (national parks, etc.). Congress needs to take back the powers that it has deferred to the executive branch over the past 150 years and have the backbone to follow Keynesian econimics. Not just the spend like crazy part but the reduce spending by the government during the good times part.
    We are in a world where many aspects of modern living are collectively so large that only the Federal government can realistically manage them. I used to think that we did not need laws to protect people from themselves, but I have finally come to the conclusion that those laws not only protect people from themselves, but also protect me from those unfortunates, and also idiots. who cannot save for their non earning years and do not have the earnings to provide healthcare coverage in this very expensive modern world.
    Those 44 million who do not pay Federal taxes that you mentioned earlier are among the lowest on the economic ladder. 100 years ago, without the social net we have today, most of those people would be in abject poverty, and the hue and cry to house, feed, and provide care for them would be huge. 100 years ago, the poorest of the poor were out of sight, we did not have the media coverage we have today peering into each and every corner. This is the modern world we live in, and it has become more socialist. The struggle is to control both the need to give away the store of socialism with the complete stoicism of capitalism.

  • Rich January 19, 2010, 7:36 am

    The sad thing here is that Americans are more divided than ever over the waste that is party affiliation.

    The health care bill if passed will not be enforced til when …2013/14?? With state opt out clauses there is plenty of time for big health care to work governors,congressmen and senators to get just about every state to opt out. And that’s exactly what will happen. Howard Dean thinks the bill sucks and he’s a Dem.
    Nobody really likes it and this thing has been reduced to a political fight.

    So does it really matter. This is just about who wins the fight and not what benefits the everyday American. Big health care will win. Democrats and Republicans will fill the campaign war chests from the generosity of CIGNA, ETNA, Blue Cross and a host of others. One party will win the political battle and the sheeple will be fleeced AGAIN .

    The beat goes on. Until someone shakes the system, like Ron Paul (I’m only using him as an example) or an Independent winning the Presidency nothing even has a remote chance of changing for the better.

    We can all argue about things like abortion,religion, gay marriage, and party platforms but both Republicans and Democrats have had a pathetic performance as far as the eye can see.

  • Christ T. January 19, 2010, 7:12 am

    For any MASS voters reading Rick’s Picks, PLEASE look at and read this link before voting tomorros:

    http://www.centerforsmallgovernment.com/feature/warning-to-tea-party-activists-and-supporters-town-hall-meeting-protesters-and-tax-cutters-living-in-massachusetts-who-are-even-considering-voting-for-scott-brown-for-us-senate-january-19th/

    While it would be great for someone to help stop Obama’s healthcare folly, and to help provide a cloture-preventing margin,
    Scott Brown is NOT IT!

    Just look at his pro-Democrat voting record in his 11 years in the MASS statehouse:
    >90% of the time with the Democrats.
    And, he was INSTRUMENTAL in MASS’s own version of Obamacare, what has been termed RomneyCare.
    This man is NO anti-government savior, he as gone so far as to state that he will work for the MASS version to be implemented in DC for us all. His bill does have the penalty tax for people not choosing to insure, just like Pelosi’s bill.

    As the confused Martin above shows, people acutally still believe in the labels of the two parties and that they are different. THEY ARE NOT.
    If the lefties above see Obama as “moderate”, it is only because he, LIKE his predecessor, represents the ONE party which has been in power for generations.

    Please read the link, as to why you MUST vote for the Kennedy in this race, EVEN IF that will give senate seat to the Democrats.

    Even a strongly showing by Kennedy can provide cover for enough in Congress to jump ship.

    But please stop rewarding Republicans that don’t deserve the name. Only a Brown defeat will show this party that they can NOT win in November if they keep foisting these big government, big taxing candidates on us.

    November is MORE important than the present health-care vote,. a loss in which we just need to consider the necessary and nasty castor oil necessary for a cure.

    As to Martin:
    “done something about gun control,”
    The only thing needind DOING about gun-control is to get rid of IT, and to return to the second amendment.
    Rather than bemoaning Obama’s stance, wake up and realize that you once more voted for a fraud, just like Republicans voted for a fraud in W (remember his condemnation of Clinton’s meddling in other countries affairs, a humble foreing policy, and smaller government?)..

    Joe Kennedy on 2/19/2010 in MASS!

    &&&&&&

    Brown cannot do a bait-and-switch here. He won’t even be able to do an Olympia Snow because of the way he has campaigned. His vote in the Senate will be safely conservative no matter what he has done, or thought, in Massachusetts. RA

  • Other Paul January 19, 2010, 6:02 am

    A lot of Congressional Democrats are praying for a Brown victory because it will give them the cover they need to kill ObamaCare. They’ll be willing to say, come November, as the other Mass. Senator said: I voted “for it” before I voted “against” it.

  • Edward0 January 19, 2010, 5:48 am

    “As for going hard-left, I can only assume that you have no idea what direction “left” is. ”

    Indeed. Obama isn’t remotely hard left, and his and the Democrat’s health care plan is deplorable, first and foremost, because it is just another giveaway to the I in the FIRE economy. Obama has already bent over to the F part of the FIRE economy-no one should be fooled for a second by his recent anti-banking establishment rhetoric- and, under his very Bush like watch, our Middle Eastern military expeditions continue unabated.

    Those who engage in mutually assured demonization with respect to the two parties are completely missing the point, whether through ignorance or some less charitable excuse, that both Republicans and Democrats fulfill the same function. That function is to deliver the U.S. citizen as sheep to be sheared by corporate interests. The two parties simply differ in the manner in which they go about that process. All other differences between the two parties are wildly inflated at election time, and most Americans take the bait. Until we stop, nothing of consequence will change, at least not as a result of the efforts of the two parties.

    In the meantime, the following video struck me as revealing. And I offer it as someone who will not be voting for either candidate.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28u3vPExxp4&feature=player_embedded

    &&&&&

    You don’t need a magnifying glass to see how the two parties differ on, for one, tax policy. Perhaps your 1040 return is among the lucky 44 million that pay no taxes at all? RA

  • Grass Ranger January 19, 2010, 5:43 am

    Hello Martin. Your response to Rick is a good example of how polarized the electorate is these days in the US. In my part of the country, not even a quarter of the voters would support the agenda you assign to the hard left. I will agree that a lot of people believe there are changes needed in the health care system but the current Christmas tree being worked on in Congress will likely never be implemented due to Constitutional objections to its coercive features. And yes, a lot of people want Uncle Sugar to layer on another helping of government largess in the form of free health care for all. But, wanting and getting in this instance? Not now.

  • GG January 19, 2010, 5:08 am

    I live in Western Massachusetts and in my travels today I noticed that 90-95% of all signs were for Scott Brown almost everywhere I went. This is highly unusual for this area and a very likely precursor for tomorrows polls.

  • Martin Snell January 19, 2010, 4:23 am

    “Up till now, Democratic Party leaders have appeared to accept the likelihood that fallout from passage of the hugely unpopular bill – it is supported by only a third of the voters — would cost some Democrats their seats in 2010.”

    Unpopular because it does not go far enough. A majority of Americans want a public option, but the bought and paid for Congress, especially the Republicans won’t allow it. The insurance industry complex is alive and profiting rapaciously. One wonders how much more the “health” business can suck out of the economy (currently 16% of GDP and accelerating), before the country goes into cardiac arrest.

    As for going hard-left, I can only assume that you have no idea what direction “left” is. Hard left would have let the banks fail, would have pulled out of Afghanistan, would have done something about gun control, would have prosecuted Cheney and Yoo, and Rumsfeld for war crimes, and would have really taxed the rich. Even from a slightly left of center perspective Obama is an extremely moderate centrist (pragmatist?)

    &&&&&

    This post should attract some well-deserved sniper-fire, Martin. Your point of view seems indefensible to me, but I wouldn’t think of stopping you from trying. If you get into a tight spot, just remember to shield yourself with this ever-potent phrase: “Cheney did it!” RA