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COMMENTARY for Tuesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Tuesday
Rick's Picks for Tuesday
Gold looks so comfortable going bouncy-bouncy off $1100 that one might think its bullion-banker enemies had gone quiet for the moment. An 1148.70 rally target given here earlier remains viable, but if the move doesn’t come soon — say, within the next day or two — buyers may need to pull back below 1098.10 (aka point ‘C’) to develop thrust. Night owls can try bottom-fishing at 1109.50 with a very tight stop-loss, but this midpoint support looks a tad too close to Monday’s low to be considered a high-confidence support. A breach would imply more downside to 1101.60. _______ UPDATE (10:40 a.m. EST): The futures are in a so-far weak bounce after sinking overnight to 1101.50, a dime from our target.
For night owls, a midpoint support at 16.110 looks compelling as a place to try bottom-fishing. This Hidden Pivot is equivalent to the one noted in today’s gold tout, and it comes with the same caveat. A decisive breach would imply more immediate downside to as low as 15.920. Alternatively, it would take a pop today above 16.970 to turn the hourly chart into a cannon. ______ UPDATE (10:46 a.m.EST): Support at 16.110 proved neither precise nor durable, although the pivot was central to an overnight distribution that took two hours to play out. The relapse has sent the futures down to as low as 15.785 so far this morning, bringing into focus a 15.415 target. On a 180-minute chart, that is the midpoint support associated with A=16.950 (Feb 3).
The last three weeks’ price action has turned an uptrend begun in mid-January to slop, but we can use a print at 80.74 to alert us to a potentially meaningful “booster” rally. Alternatively, a decisive breach of 80.24, a Hidden Pivot support, would be warning of weakness creeping into the short-term picture. _______ UPDATE (10:51 a.m. EST): DXY has tagged both of our numbers today, alerting us to the dollar’s schizophrenia, if little else. The dominant trend remains bullish nonetheless and points to 81.78 over the near term. Midpoint resistance at 80.98 would have to be overcome first.
We shorted eight March 17 calls for 0.40 when they traded as high as 0.43 on Friday. They go against 800 shares of stock we hold for 12.15. That cost basis is attributable in part to the $320 gain we booked on eight February 17 calls shorted a while back for 0.40. We’ll continue to build edge into this position one month at a time. For now, though, do nothing further. _______ EXPIRATION UPDATE: The calls expired worthless, effectively lowering our cost basis to 11.75. We’ll back off our covered-write program for now, since remuneration for shorting the 17 strike is currently half of what we’ve been getting.
We continue to hold seven April 42 puts for an average 1.05 and a March 44 put for 0.23. Cover the position if the QQQs touch 45.73 today.
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This Just In... for Tuesday
George Will draws a bead on climate “science” in a recent essay that you can access by clicking here. Here’s an excerpt:
“The global warming industry, like Alexander in the famous children’s story, is having a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day. Actually, a bad three months, which began Nov. 19 with the publication of e-mails indicating attempts by scientists to massage data and suppress dissent in order to strengthen “evidence” of global warming.”
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on 6/30 - 7/1. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Why Pick on Greece?
by Rick Ackerman on February 23, 2010 5:02 am GMT · 3 comments
Here’s a fine example of unintentional irony, from atop the front page of Monday’s Wall Street Journal: “Debt Deals Haunt Europe”. And the sub-heading: “Investors Re-Examine Complex Financial Maneuvers Used to Hide Borrowings”. As you might expect, the story was all about Greece and the so-called PIIGS – Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain. But it could just as easily have been written about the U.S. or a dozen other large countries that have somehow retained their AAA credit ratings despite having borrowed sums too large to ever repay. And let’s not overlook the fact that there are a few U.S. states – California, » Read the full article