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COMMENTARY for Tuesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Tuesday
Rick's Picks for Tuesday
What a stretch. After struggling to go lower, stocks got short-squeezed back to unchanged in the final hour of the session. (Incidentally, the day’s low was a nearly exact hit on the ‘D’ target of a pattern on the hourly chart.) To paraphrase Yogi Berra, it was deja view all over again — for about the hundredth time. Fortunately, we had profitably covered all but a single contract of the short position we’d established on Friday. Profit taking has raised our cost basis to 1177.00 (basis the June contract), implying that even if Mr Market does his very worst, we will come away with a handsome gain. Having rolled into the June contract yesterday, let’s set a stop-loss at 1151.00. This is slightly below Friday’s peak, but just above a look-to-the-left high whose breach would be telegraphing a breakout. ______ UPDATE (1:01p.m. EST): We covered at 1151.50, realizing a theoretical gain of $1275 per contract. We’ll continue to short this silly bear rally whenever a similarly juicy opportunity arises.
Stairstepping their way lower for nearly two weeks, the futures have noticeably failed to generate even an ounce of fear. A print today at 1128.30 would show bears who’s boss, but failing that, look for more timid selling down to as low as 1088.00, where structural support from some prior lows exists. A 1095.50 downside target remains viable, and you can try bottom-fishing there with a stop-loss as tight as 1094.90.
A 377.79 downside target given here earlier is still viable, but we can lower the bullish reversal threshold to 426.93 from 433.99, since that’s where the hourly chart would turn positive again. If instead HUI heads lower, bottom-fishing at 399.46 would be a decent speculation. We’ll make that our minimum downside target for now.
After Friday’s strong rally in the Euro, which exceeded three prior highs on the daily chart, the substantial Monday pullback should have us looking to get long for some bullish follow-through. The “X” point shown on the chart is two pips below an important prior high at 1.3707, visible on the 15-minute and lower timeframes. Traders should look for a pullback from just above that level to provide a buying opportunity based on a smaller pattern. (Posted by Doug McLagan)
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
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One Awkward Step Ruins Beckham’s Season
by Rick Ackerman on March 16, 2010 2:19 am GMT · 8 comments
David Beckham reportedly was recuperating Monday after surgery in Finland to repair a torn Achilles tendon. We wish him well, since no other player has done so much to stimulate interest in the game in the USA. The Los Angeles Galaxy’s celebrated midfielder was on loan to an Italian team, AC Milan, playing in a game against Chievo Verona, when he stepped back awkwardly while taking a pass with his left foot. “He started hopping on his right foot with an expression of pain on his face,” according to a news report. “He reached a hand down to his left heel, then stood up and gestured as if he was breaking a » Read the full article