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COMMENTARY for Wednesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday
Rick's Picks for Wednesday
Irrespective of whether the Dow is about to rally 239 points to tie the 1930 recovery, we should try to short this vehicle when it reaches the 48.12 target shown in the chart. Buy four April 48 puts, which should be selling for around 0.90 at the time, no stop-loss.
There are two targets just above that look like enticing shorts. The first lies at 1157.00, but I am wary of initiating a position there because the futures have already hit 1157.25 as of midnight and the night is still young. The second lies at 1161.00 and would give us a little more cushion against what looks to be a developing short-squeeze. The risk is that the top will occur below our offer, perhaps at 1157.25. In any event, I’ll recommend offering two contracts short at 1161.00, stop 1162.25. The chart shows the two relevant patterns.
Because it took two tries to push past the 1128.30 peak recorded on March 10, we should temper our bullishness until there’s more evidence. That said, the futures are nonetheless masticating an 1126.00 midpoint resistance that I noted earlier in the chat room, even if they have not yet left it behind. Once this occurs, the prospect of a run-up to exactly 1154.30 seems like a safe bet. A camouflaged opportunity to get long could crop up via a pullback from somewhere between the peaks that were recorded on the way down between March 3-7. All of the details noted herein are shown in the accompanying chart.
The Euro has continued to move up, consistent with our view that it has recently made a significant low. But if it reaches a “D” target of 1.3900 soon, it will be overbought and due for a pullback. We will short at 1.3899 with a stop at 1.3911, risking $150 and taking account of an alternate A point six pips below and just to the left of the one we are using, as shown on the attached chart. (Posted by Doug McLagan) ______ UPDATE (12:42 a.m. EST, March 18): This tout has been superseded by the one dated March 18 and is no longer active.
Tuesday’s brief but precise bounce off of the midpoint of a bullish daily pattern gives us the confidence to recommend shorting the D target of 118^16.5 with a tight stop. Traders should sell at 118^15 with a stop at 118^18.5, risking about $110. (Posted by Doug McLagan) _______ UPDATE (6:40 p.m.): Cancel the order, since the futures were having difficulty gaining altitude. Two days later, they’d gone no higher than 117^17.
The Yen chart shows patterns pointing both up and down, one of which recently produced a bounce from very near its midpoint. If this bounce is a prelude to yet lower prices, we might use the midpoint of the dueling pattern, at 1.1229, as a place to try to get short for a ride down. This approach is valid so long as the bullish “C” point of 1.0984 is not revisited first. (Posted by Doug McLagan) ______ UPDATE (12:38 a.m. EST, March 18): This tout has been superseded by the one dated March 18 and is no longer active. Because we might make future reference to the chart attached to this tout, please note that the number 1.229 in the chart explanation should read 1.1229.
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This Just In... for Wednesday
What you and I have paid into Social Security has long since been spent, leaving only IOUs to fund our retirement. Those IOUs are now coming due, since, for the first time in a generation, the Social Security system is projected to pay out more than it takes in — about $29 billion more. Read the story by clicking here.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on 6/30 - 7/1. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Bear Rally Nears 1930s Benchmark
by Rick Ackerman on March 17, 2010 4:09 am GMT · 8 comments
At yesterday’s top, the Dow Industrial Average was a mere 239 points shy of equaling the six-month bear rally that followed the 1929 Crash. The blue chip average peaked at 10694 on Tuesday, but it will need to hit 10933 to equal the fervently delusional retracement of the Great Crash to within 77% of the market’s peak value. At the rate the Dow has been climbing, it could be there by week’s end or early next, so place your bets. We’ve can identify one spot between here and 10933 where a short would enjoy » Read the full article