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COMMENTARY for Thursday
TODAY'S ACTION for Thursday
Rick's Picks for Thursday
Just because the futures have pulped an 1157.25 target on the weekly chart does not mean we cannot remain properly skeptical by requiring every uptick on the hourly chart to pass the sniff test. That approach yields an 1177.50 target to shoot for, based on the pattern shown in the inset. Camouflage entry opportunities will be in limited supply intraday, and so I’ll suggest using the 1-minute chart to take the first available ride after the opening bell. Night owls can try bottom-fishing at 1160.25 with a three-tick stop-loss. That’s the midpoint pivot of a down-pattern on the 2-minute chart where A=1165.25 (March 17, 2:26 p.m. EST) _______ UPDATE (2:04 p.m. EST): The midpoint pivot at 1160.25 gave way easily, telegraphing the intraday low at 1156.25 that was yet to occur. That is a single tick from the 1156.50 ‘D’ target associated with 1160.25. (On the 5-minute chart, A=1165.25, B=1157.75, and C=1164.00.) The theoretical loss on the trade was about $50.
The 1154.30 target given here earlier can serve as a minimum upside target for the near term although the very minor trend is bearish as of 9:20 p.m. EST. That’s nothing a two-day close above 1126.00 wouldn’t cure, but until that happens we shouldn’t jump to conclusions. In the meantime, night owls can try bottom-fishing with an 1117.60 bid. The provenance of that Hidden Pivot is shown in the chart. _______ UPDATE (3:47 p.m. EST): The futures never quite got down to our bid, rallying instead from an 1118.20 low. The day-session close above 1126.00 is a positive sign, as noted.
If Silver pulls Gold higher today, look for a pop to as high as 18.040. The sibling midpoint of that target, 17.440, has so far acted as support in trading Wednesday night. Alternatively, a flurry if selling could be expected to drive the futures down to 17.315, but any lower would hint of more weakness into week’s end.
The Yen is in position to impulse one way or the other, and in evening trading it is close to doing so to the upside. Its destination might be the 1.1229 level discussed in yesterday’s tout, which is the midpoint of a pattern from the 360-minute chart. The best chance to get long for the ride up would be if the market rallied to just above the second (or possibly the third) prior high marked on the chart and then pulled back, creating the appearance of a failed breakout and thus giving us camouflage. Let’s treat 1.1229 as our bullish price target for the time being. Should the Yen decide to impulse down rather than up, perhaps it would be best to stand aside and watch what happens at the 1.0974 midpoint, also described in yesterday’s tout, which comes from a pattern on the daily chart. (Posted by Doug McLagan)
An examination of the intraday Euro chart reveals that the alternate “A” point mentioned in yesterday’s tout is actually the better of the two, due to a large and exact bounce off of its associated midpoint pivot. In evening trading a small bearish impulse wave has occurred, and we should watch for this to evolve into a pattern which might allow us to buy the Euro not far above the “C” point of our larger pattern. That “C” point of 1.3639 must be left untouched for our plan to remain viable. The “D” target is now 1.3906, far enough away that we can probably leave the question of shorting it for another day. But if we can get long somewhere above 1.3639, that “D” target is where we’d like the trade to take us. (Posted by Doug McLagan)
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This Just In... for Thursday
I found this Fox interview very informative. President Obama knows nothing of what is actually in the healthcare bill and is indifferent to the means used to enact it. “Yes,” he said. “It’s one sixth of the economy, but we’re not going to change everything all at once.” He also had a Tina Fay moment, and apparently confused Hawaii with Haiti in referring to earthquake devastation and exemptions for other states than Louisiana, but Haiti is not a state and Hawaii has not had earthquake devastation. It’s unclear to me what he meant.
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Too Bullish for Our Own Good?
by Rick Ackerman on March 18, 2010 1:48 am GMT · 10 comments
Bloodied bears should ponder the chart below before they surrender to the notion that stocks will continue to rise more or less forever. The first thing to notice is that the crash that followed October 2007’s all-time high came at a time when the Dow average had just pushed into the ozone, moving decisively above 14000 for the first time. It’s not hard to imagine bulls getting pretty fired up back then — and bears getting ready to dive into their bomb shelters. It looked like a moon shot was under way, and, based on our proprietary Hidden Pivot method, we’d have laid odds that the Industrial Average was bound for at » Read the full article