Illusion of Prosperity Entering Its Twilight

Even if the U.S. economy has hit bottom – a prospect that we view as extremely unlikely — there is almost no chance the recovery will restore the nation to economic health. No one understands this better than the Baby Boomers, vast numbers of whom have seen their retirement plans go up in smoke because of the wealth-destroying effects of the Great Recession. Tens of millions of Baby Boomers are parents as well, and they are just starting to come to grips with the possibility that their children will experience a declining standard of living in the decades ahead.  As recently as three years ago, before the banking system and housing market collapsed, few would have believed America could fall so far, so fast. Now, with public, corporate and private debt hanging over us that has grown far too large to redeem, only a fool in denial could fail to see the dark shadow that has fallen over the economy.

Even so, the illusion of prosperity seems likely to persist, especially with the stock market’s relentless rally, now entering its 14th month, to distract and disconnect us from the real economic world.  A comment posted in the Rick’s Picks forum yesterday by “EdwardO” [click here to visit his blog] trenchantly describes the folly of it all:

“The cognitive dissonance about the land is now both pervasive and immense. The number of unemployed, underemployed, and otherwise financially and economically imperiled has ratcheted up over the last few years, and though the economic deterioration that began in earnest in early 2008 seems to have, at least by some modestly credible measures, abated somewhat in the last few months, the new normal, such as it is, is distinctly less healthy, less favorable to most, than it was.

“And yet, despite the immutable facts of a reduction in the standard of living for so many, we keep hearing talk of recovery — which is, by definition, absurd, since a recovery assumes the reclamation of a prior state. The only prior state that has been recovered is the one that Wall Street was operating in before the financial world, as we knew it, ended in a thunderous calamity. In fact, even that picture isn’t entirely accurate since Wall Street has now, de facto, if not de jure, captured at least two, if not all three, branches comprising the Federal Government.

‘Nothing Left to Lose…’

“And the Federal Government, whose agenda is unmistakably crafted and shaped by corporations, if we are operating euphemistically, and owned like a mindless piece of chattel (by the remnants of the FIRE economy) if we are not, in concert with the mainstream media, which is also the province, lock, stock, and barrel of ‘bottom line’ concerns, are all in on maintaining — to the vast majority’s detriment — the grand, if tenuous, illusion of prosperity. That Matrix will continue to function as is until some critical number of those trapped within it lose even more than they have lost already. At that point, one imagines a genuine move towards revolution and freedom- which, as Kris Kristofferson observed, is “just another word for nothing left to lose” — will emerge in a such a way as to make the Tea Party movement look like the tepid, co-opted brew it is. Unfortunately, by then, it may well be too late. Vamos a ver [We shall see…].”

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  • Mercurious April 9, 2010, 4:30 am

    Steve, in regards to your reply to Rich above: At this stage, none of that makes one whit of difference for two reasons. 1) The law is unenforceable against an adversary that does not feel compelled to obey it, nor is threatened if he ignores it. If “law” was a protector, the “dollar” would still be a fixed weight of precious metal and we wouldn’t have legal tender ‘laws’. 2) No revolution is fought over the enforcement of legal codices. It is an emotional response, a righteous indignation to some emblematic incident that symbolizes the glaring injustices of a system; it becomes the spark the ignites the conflagration.
    Not to disrespect your effort at learning, but the truly wise understands the value of admitting the limitations of learning. Your constitutional erudition will mean nothing when the time comes to take off the gloves. Anyone left unmolested at this point, who believes such immunity will continue due to respect for any law on the part of the authorities, leans not on a thin reed but an invisible one. There are other more profitable ways to make preparations.

  • Rich April 8, 2010, 6:27 pm

    One of the side effects of the internet invention and digital cells was making it easier to eavesdrop on and locate US Citizens at chokepoints la 1984 and Total Recall. Whether we are corporate subjects is beyond my ken. All I know is freedom is only lost when we give it up. Too many brave Americans died defending freedom for that to happen. The long-slumbering revolt of the masses is stirring with the Birthers and Tea Parties. Interesting times here and ahead…

  • Chris T. April 8, 2010, 6:01 am

    Rich, that was some emotional valium posted above…

  • Steve April 8, 2010, 5:32 am

    Rich,

    Civil Rights are under Roman Civil Law and the 14th Amendment for corporate enfranchisees legislatively created subjects. Federal union of states according to justice O’Conner. However Covenant Endowed Rights are constitutionally secured, and Citizenship is secured at Article IV, sec. 2, Const. A.D. 1787. One needs to understand antecedent Immunity and Privilege and legislatively granted roman ‘civil rights’ under the illegimate legislative act 14th amendment. Read The State of Georgia v. Stanton 73 U.S. 50 http://www.findlaw.com.

    Mixed up – 14th amendment citizen does not have Standing to bring constitutional claim against benefactor while in receipt of benefit – Ashwander Doctrine of the New Deal 1938

  • Rich April 7, 2010, 9:57 pm
  • Rich April 7, 2010, 9:25 pm

    Great day trade on the gold market Rick.

    While those who worship gold or silver have the First Amendment Right to exuberate broken cartels and a 10% 1980 CPI, Big4 and Jubilee Prosperity still see much lower prices ahead across the board.

    Check out the 2010 Monetary Base and Money Multiplier falling off a cliff to confirm the lack of real mortgage relief or Hundred Dollar Bills falling from the sky with misnamed Helicopter Ben:

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s%5B1%5D%5Bid%5D=BASE&s%5B1%5D%5Btransformation%5D=pc1

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT

    This Secular SuperBear market began in real terms in the Jubilee year of 2000 and is just picking up steam. It may dwarf anything America has seen, including the Revolutionary and Civil War Depressions combined.
    Larry Summers was the first in government to quietly call what is happening in small business a Depression.

    Subsequent nominal regurgitation rallies like 1929 sucked what cash was left out of the market economy for those who broke the banks and issued more debt and shares at taxpayer expense.

    When/if Banks and Brokers refuse to send cash balances, or the internet and cell phones are shut down, the die may be cast.

    Rick, you may not have to dance the hula in Times Square. The NYT Building may foreclose before GS hits a new low, but the jury is still out, way out. Martin Armstrong rots in jail/prison ten years now without due process, habeas corpus, jury trial according to the wise Latina who kept him in on appeal.

    Despite American military gloating over gunning down civilians, government disappearing the middle class and robbing productive Americans, Congress pondering whether to confiscate and convert Retirement plans into Treasury Annuities after raising Taxes and Cutting Medicare with P0RCare, having lived abroad, we still say with justification there is no place like home.

    Meanwhile in the markets today, SPX briefly turned 1190 green at 1:27 PM ET, perhaps a serious high water mark.
    We remain long TZA and Ten Big4 others above the lows with trailing stops…

    Regards*Rich

  • Mike April 7, 2010, 5:32 pm

    On one hand I do see some people struggling. but not out of their homes and not starving. nothing catastrophic. On the other hand I have many friends, many that are still doing well in the following lines of work : surgeon, computer services sales, 2 in electronics sales, 2 plastics sales, hotel/convention sales, business owner that maintains water filtration systems for buildings, lawyer, actuary, accountant and more they’re all making over 250K+ have seen a slight slow down but not too bad .one who was just dropped to partime work and just bought a new car ( their third) and next year is paying for their oldest to go to college(private school). I’ll see them tonight and they’ll all be talking about where they took their families for spring break and where summer vacation will be. ?? and how much money their spending to send their kid to school. when I go to the store (costco) I see lots of people and long checkout lines and restuarants are still crowded on fri/sat. (suburban chicago). so if things are so bad how do any of you explain this. I can’t, I shake my head because I don’t get it. second question. if we are in a bear market rally which I’m now having my doubts. at what point? what has to happen Rick or all in order for it to be a bull market for you?
    please don’t tell me eventually the sky will fall. I think that some how the gov, the world powers will just make up new rules and say ok problem solved. this is worth x that is worth z. and we move on problem solved. your thoughts?

    &&&&&&&

    All the evidence I have suggests it’s a mixed bag at best for professionals in the lines of business you’ve cited — and perhaps just a coincidence that the ones whom you know have not been decimated. The bear rally will become a bull market when the Dow surpasses the old high, 14198, but from a Hidden Pivot standpoint the bullish argument would become slightly interesting at 11868. As as practical matter, bull/bear is irrelevant, since our trading orientation is simply with the short- and intermediate-term swings. RA

  • Chuck Griffiths April 7, 2010, 3:50 pm

    SDavid, There are things that are more precious than life, money, freedom, and security. In a word,sir, it’s family. What father, or mother, would not sacrifice all for the sake of their children? Our children are being born into a world that, because they have experienced no other, they think is just fine. They have no desire to leave these shores because they think life here is O.K.. In truth, life here is O.K. I, however, being an old goat, have experienced a life that was incredibly wonderful. I know that if we ALL sacrifice now, our grandchildren could experience the wonderful life that I knew. Sadly, no one wishes to sacrifice anything. Hardly anyone seems willing to work to change anything. Consequently we will become Greece, or Spain. Like them, our civilization will become just another footnote in history. Oh well.

  • Other Paul April 7, 2010, 3:31 pm

    Rick,

    The Tooker piece inspired me to research more about him. “Lunch” is a captivating image and thought-provoking in these troubled times.

    Thanks for another of your very worthwhile cultural “time outs.”

    &&&&&&

    Tooker was featured on the cover of Avante Garde about 40 years ago. His images have haunted me since. RA

  • JohnJay April 7, 2010, 3:27 pm

    To SDavid
    I think the Bill of Rights will allow us to complain to our hearts content without being ordered to “get out” by anyone.
    There is nothing we ‘can do” about this mess on a macro level, the political system is corrupt beyond redemption.
    Anyone old enough heard the same complaints about “America, love it or leave it” all through the Vietnam war mess. Vietnam was a huge, costly mistake.
    What we have now is about 5 times worse.
    I see no other place I feel like moving to right now.
    I don’t fear Martial Law, this government can’t even round up the 300,000 illegal alien felons that are still on the loose.
    But you are free to complain about us, and we are free to ignore you. Just remember that the “America, love it or leave it” crowd was wrong all along about Vietnam and got real quiet at the end of that mess.

  • Chris T. April 7, 2010, 9:10 am

    SDavid:

    who says there is nothing good to say about this country?
    One of the reasons you do not see the exodus you mention, is because there is plenty to love. That does not include THE system that has come to rule us, and corrupted exactly those things that we love.

    I for one believe that the American spirit which formed this country, made it great, and in the Constitution tried to find rules to keep it that way, still exists in our hearts enough to be reawakened and resuscitated from the current dormant state.

    BUT, like the castor oil of days past, or chemotherapy today, this will take a bitter shock to the system. Nothing else has worked, and your “doing something” is just an example. THE system has found ways to deal with and render ultimately unsuccessful, all those that have tried what you mention (with licit and illicit means — see the documented fraud perpetrated by the GOP against Ron Paul supporters during the primaries and conventions as an ex).

    Sometimes chemotherapy is fatal to the patient, I hope this will not be the case. You seem to think that it will be fatal, and thus would not even attempt it.
    But cutting and running, for fear of the side-effects, that would be the immoral thing to do, and bespeaks of the pessimism which you criticize.

    If we survive the chemo, then it is precisely those sitting on the pile of gold, that will be needed to rebuild our country, because they had the foresight to prepare for THAT day.

    The gold is not for the crisis, it is for afterwards.
    Lemmings follow, they don’t create, and tend not to have the wherewithal. With only lemmings left, no rebuilding is possible.
    And, should there be no afterwards, then at least those not having cut-and-run for greener pastures are not deserters.
    Finally, what makes you think that most alternative locales would be/are better than what’s here now?

    • AverageJoe April 7, 2010, 6:57 pm

      “Sometimes chemotherapy is fatal to the patient” …

      You may want to read “A World Without Cancer” by G. Edward Griffin.

      I’m eating a handful of apricot seeds every day to prevent cancer. Two years of this and I’m feeling great!

  • SDavid April 7, 2010, 6:43 am

    Each day I log onto this site, check the commentary and (occasionally) the chat. Most days, (either on commentary or in the chat room) I am confronted with “The US is doomed.” Maybe it’s true, and I won’t bother with an opinion on that, because it’s beyond me.

    What surprises me, however, is how so many of the people frequenting this site seem to think they’ll be “just fine” staying in the good ol’ USA providing that they are sitting on a pile of gold.

    Sorry, but “just fine” to me (and this really shouldn’t be THAT difficult a decision) would be to pack your bags and leave the US. If you have nothing good to say about your own country, and that it’s totally corrupt, why would you stay? Get out now, while you still have a choice!

    What are you all waiting for? Obama to call the troops home and Marshall law to take hold? It will be far too late by then and the gold you’ve been patiently accumulating won’t mean much of anything, when it comes right down to it. There has to be (if I am to take so many of you for your word) far better places to be than the USA.

    I see all kinds of complaints about what’s wrong with America. Instead of complaining about it, do something. And if it’s at a point where you honestly think nothing can be done, you’ve only got yourselves to blame if you stay in the US and your predictions come true.

    So either get out while you still can or find a solution, as whatever it is you are all doing now ain’t working!

    &&&&&&&

    On Amazon, check out Sean Brodrick’s “The Ultimate Suburban Survivalist Guide” — a kindler and gentler survivalist manual that provides some useful suggestions on how to avoid having to move to New Zealand. RA

    • Steve April 7, 2010, 4:42 pm

      SDavid, an interesting comment from a person who lives in a new modern feudal monarchy in succession Internationally recognized by its Seals, and Symbols as a body in rebellion under illegitimate military power (department of State). I can provide the case law, and I have the ability to show the losses of freedom to no less than the brainwashing that produces dumbed down people who do not know the difference between democracy and a republic. (but; why spread pearls before democratic swine)

      Slavery is much like farming and ranching. No rancher overgrazes, and no farmer over plants his fields until it gets really tough. No man starves his plow horse in good times. No slaver abuses his property, fails to feed them well, and to take good care of them in good times. Sick slaves produce no wealth (do you understand the healthcare bill now?) Most people are going to sit in place looking through an optimistic filter brought on by defective DNA – the Pelosi-Obama syndrome. As for me I was trained by the military while in civilian law enforcement on how to deal with ‘civil disorder’ on the largest scale.

      The thought on the usefulness of gold and silver Coin in a civil breakdown is misguided. To break it down in the terms that Obama, and the misguided military will use against you. If one cannot defend what one has, then one will have nothing. If one is not prepared to defend and take what one needs, it will be taken from one. Need it more simple ? If you are not willing to kill for yourself and family, you will be killed. One cannot eat gold and silver Coin, but; that form of money will be the most useful to keep what one has, and to obtain what is needed in a free trade economy – that is just one step above barter, which is one step above outright survival. Which brings us back to the governmental position on survival, can’t defend it, will not have it, can’t take it – it will be taken from you. Liberty has been taken from us all because the majority will not defend it. Or more correctly – I still live in Liberty, but; because the masses refuse to make a Stand the cost to me personally is very great. I have been paying your way – those who say – JUST LEAVE. Soon there will be fewer of us to be drained of Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. When democracy strangles the few Men left who defend the Free Republic – then; will justice come on the wings of destruction.

      Unbridled optimism is a sickness that leaves the victim waiting to be raped, pillaged, and plundered. (I’ve picked up the bloody, the battered, and the stupid who did nothing for their own safety) Filtered optimism is the sickness possessed of the likes of Frank, Schumer, Pelosi, Reid, Obama, et.al. Need I go on to list the people who think they are smarter than you and you knowing how you should live and what you should think ? Filtered pessimism leaves the practitioner ever ready, but; not able to participate in bubbles of unreasonable stupidity that occur at all peaks in society.

      What I expect from liberals, and people who have no Standing is the comment – leave it then. My People fought for it in A.D. 1775, and I fight every day against the masses in mobocracy who deny Freedom and Liberty.

      My statement to all – if you are not willing to fight for the Republic – YOU LEAVE – NOW ! If anyone thinks democracy is the best thing going – YOU LEAVE – NOW ! The reality is that the Federal Government views YOU & YOU as rebels who refuse to defend the Nation against their tyranny. Does anyone care about the case law, the conclusive presumptions of the supreme Court, or the opinion of the congress that prove what I say conclusively ?

      The problem with this Nation is found in a bunch of takers who leave their nation, their country, their culture to suck the life out of Freedom, because they are too cowardly to defend their own way of life on their native soil. In Fact de Facto this country is filled will leaches that will not stand and defend what made the united States healthy. By Right de Jure I have the ability to say what I say because I take a Stand in the courts, on the telephone, and by the way I live – every day.

      Has one of you with money filed an action in court saying you have Standing to bring the Claim of loss of Unalienable Property Rights to the abuses of healthcare legislation, and the fact the State Florida has no standing because it holds no allodial right to suffrage, property, freedom – Florida is a fiction, an artful creation in trust,

      Please do not tell me to abandon the fight for a Free Republic in the present, in Order to recover the Freedoms lost to persons who only come to suck the milk out of this Nation – I tend to become disregulated in the face of people who tell me to leave my Nation and allow the leaches to suck the bones of my ancestors John and Joseph Goddard. The Republic may be skin and bones because of the leaches, but; she can be feed back to health upon the blood of traitors – that according to the writing of Thomas Jefferson and a few others.

  • Edward0 April 7, 2010, 5:49 am

    I just came across a piece at the link below which was written by another Edward (economist Edward Harrison) that nicely buttresses this evening’s post.

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/04/throwing-in-the-towel-on-policy-makers.html

  • Other Paul April 7, 2010, 5:29 am

    EdwardO,
    Great essay.

    Yes, when will too many be caught in the matrix of financial disaster?

    Extensions in long-term unemployment benefits and letting homeowners live mortgage-payment-free have frightened many, but not “fightened” them. Homelessness and hunger will be strong motivators to kick-start dreadful events.

    Broken bank windows may be a very early warning.

  • Terry S April 7, 2010, 4:16 am

    “Feelin’ good was good enuf for me; good enuf for me and Bobby McGee…” Via con Dios, Eduardo –

  • Chris T. April 7, 2010, 3:12 am

    Amen.

    “…only a fool in denial could fail to see…”
    which prooves that this plot of earth is full of fools.

    Just about when did the stock-market come to be seen as a proxy for “the economy” anyway? Whenever, I bet the shills, such as NYT, that have been misleading us for so long, had a hand in that, too.
    And of course, that most non-representative of indices, the DJIA, is still the one perceived most in this context. And it just happens to be the one most easily doctored up…