More Panic Attacks Are Certain to Occur

So, was it thinking machines that put stocks into a death dive last week, or was it primal human fear?  Either way, there’s a neurological disease at work and therefore little likelihood of a cure.  Even worse, since these diseases tend to be degenerative, we should expect something still more disruptive in the future. Ham-handed regulations won’t be able to stop it, either.  Let the exchanges install all the circuit breakers they want; supply will out someday, catastrophically overwhelming demand when buyers go AWOL. This is inevitable when you create a global electronic trading network connecting ten billion ganglions that at any given moment can channel the sum of all fears.

Panic is now embedded in the financial system's DNA

Thus enabled, the stock market is like a vast nervous system lacking a brain — kind of like Los Angeles, with mayhem always lurking just below the surface.  Last week, for a few minutes, some large clusters of ganglions in the trading network got overstimulated, resulting in a five-alarm panic whose cause has so far defied forensic explanation. The sleuths should save their breath: It was an anxiety attack. Humans have them all the time. We once knew a guy who started having panic attacks whenever he dined in a restaurant 50 miles or more from home.  If you’ve ever felt your scalp crawl, this is the sensation the guy said swept over his entire body, paralyzing him with a wave of cold fear.

Heal Thyself

He put himself through an endless battery of neurological tests, including an EEG, a brain scan, and all the rest.  The results came back negative, but he kept having the attacks.  Still more tests revealed nothing of medical interest.  Finally, physically and psychologically depleted after being poked and prodded for months, having epileptic seizures induced by tormentors in white coats, and being treated like a lab rat for too long, he decided that the attacks were all in his head.  He resolved to stop them by reassuring himself whenever he dined out that there was nothing wrong with his brain or nervous system. It worked. The attacks ceased, never to return.

Far less sanguine are we about Wall Street’s ability to heal itself; for, to believe the stock market capable of calming its own nerves is to believe the Frankenstein monster, with his diseased brain, can be made docile with herbal tea and Rosary beads. Not only will an accident such as we witnessed last Thursday happen again, it is bound to recur with sufficient violence to close the markets for more than a mere day or two.  That is because it is not just New York and Chicago trading exchanges that have been imbued technologically with the ability to magnify panic a million-fold, but the entire global financial system. This problem cannot be fixed by regulatory tinkering at the margin because it is a disease now embedded in the financial system’s DNA.

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  • g lachner May 15, 2010, 7:21 pm

    GS moved from pvt. money to incorporation, and now, “commercial bank” to bolster their game changing power. Let’s improve circumstances for all of us a bit by breaking the bank – investment (speculator) side to their game and disallow that combination ala Glass-Steagel. 2nd, let’s bring a little morality back to America and prosecute the bas_ards, and others demonstrating similar behavior, not just in finance but international actions (crimes) ala bush, rumsdfeld and the other creeps who have dissed every American by their criminal and mafia- like behavior. This cannot improve until such anti-social and anti-American behavior is treated for what it is. To be fair, Obama’s Afghan/Iraq actions are little better, and extra-judicial targeted assassination is just another war crime and needs to be punished.

  • Benjamin May 10, 2010, 9:25 pm

    I’d say it’s the other way around…

    technology x unsound principles = disaster

    Obviously, continuous reduction of unsound principles allows human action and technology to florish to infinity…

  • cameroni May 10, 2010, 8:30 pm

    The European Union must be congratulated. They have acted responsibly by choosing union over self interest and Nationalism. Instead of shunning Greece, shutting her out and locking the door behind them they have instead made a tremendous sacrifice and have opted instead to take a share in Greece’s misfortunes despite the obvious risks. And they have put their collective neck on the line for the whole union by establishing what amounts to an insurance program for the rest of the sick patients in the group. The pain will be shared while expectations of future growth have been lowered.

    At the same time they have sent a clear message to bond rating agencies. You can be replaced. Nobody needs a Rhodes Scholarship anymore to see the clear connection between the Bond raters and currency speculators. Nor do we need a microscope to see how destabilizing those influences can be nor how quickly the global financial system can be brought to the brink of economic calamity. The events of the last two weeks has made it clear to all just how disruptive those influences can be and what negative implications it has for both political stability and global markets. Their blunder will bring on change.

    This is not a child’s games anymore. Future financial reforms may well include putting limits on the speculation of currencies. We will see what transpires with the G20 meetings next month in Canada. I think it is safe to say that some dramatic reforms could well be in the offing. There is simply too much at stake to allow the greed and opportunism of a handful of people married to the lightning speed of computers and established market practices to impact the very stability of nations. We just witnessed a very close call with a bad destiny. A Euro in sharp decline combined with extreme fear, even panic and markets in flight. There were no fat fingers. The near crash was precipitated by a panic sell-off that triggered backstops and cascaded the market downward in a whirlwind of computer generated trades. Many investors and some traders were not even present to witness it all except on the six-o-clock news. Suddenly presets and program trading is in the spotlight. Will we allow computers to crash the system any more than continue to tolerate speculators bringing no less than the stability to the European Union into doubt?

    But with so much liquidity sloshing around the system and always on the lookout for better investing opportunities, it has instead found easy kills in currency markets. Fortunes can be made in the blink of an eye. Counties can be ruined. And it is all too easy when the targets are so public and vulnerable and systems are in place to capitalize on those misfortunes. Capital is now being misallocated in the most dangerous and irresponsible way. Short term gains are surely going to lead to big long term losses.

    This is not hunting for bargains. It is more like shooting chickens in a barrel. That is why the European Union has done the right thing and why I congratulate them. They have taken steps to tame the speculators and rescued their own currency through policies that will bring stability back to the Eurozone.

    Now if only those pesky Greek citizens would just get on board and cooperate it just might work.

  • Robert May 10, 2010, 7:19 pm

    The DNA analogy is apt, as there does indeed seem to be a Darwinian “survival of the fittest” vibe being played out on the world stage.

    One interesting thing is that as the banks create more legal tender to pump into the system to keep it liquid, the more of that “primary resource” that just gets directed back to the Apex Predators.

    The other interesting thing is that the system is rigged so that the paper trading so effectively disguises the true value of all things that people are choosing NOT to buy the things they want or need for fear that they may not have enough printed paper to trade for the other things that they want or need. This vicious feedback loop is the beginning of the end- People worry more about their printed paper then they do about their real needs.

    This is exactly how the true value of real money has re-asserted itself time and time again throughout history.

    Back to our Darwinian analogy of natural selection:

    The end game, of course, is that eventually, the Apex Predators remove so much of the primary resource from the system that the Prey either begin starving and dying, or they find a new resource (or a new system) that serves the same primary dietary (or economic in our anolgy) purpose- one that is beyond the reach of the Predators. At that point, the value of the old primary resource returns to its inherent state and the Predators find themselves gorged on a substance that suprisingly has so few calories that it does not effectively sustain them….

    Eventually, the big-shots on Wall Street will not understand why there is no one around to fix their broken toilets, and why there is no one to replace the light bulbs… and they will certainly not understand why the farmers are all driving Ferraris…

  • cp May 10, 2010, 7:11 pm

    The people who carried “logical” shorts over the weekend got creamed. But as I noted last week, shorts have been a major fuel for this endless rally. Besides the “melt up” triggering short covering, we have a trillion dollar bailout by the EU, which crushes more rational thinking people who shorted this surreal market.

    I guess my point is, regardless of rational and fundamentally sound thinking and TA, people going short, even if they’re “right” are being used to advance the market. This scam of a market should have gone down a long time ago, if it weren’t for the huge manipulations that keep it going where TPTB want it go.

    Even if you’re right, you’re f#@cked. Best of luck, traders. cp

  • keith May 10, 2010, 6:53 pm

    I’m ultra-bullish on the stock market right now. Last weeks action was a glitch, fluke, blooper, whatever you want to call it. It was perfect to clear out the froth. Now we can push to new highs……then repeat.

    I don’t believe it was a big panic selling event due to emotion. You’ll have to convince me that the dow fell 700 points in 6 minutes because everyone said sell it all. That just wasn’t the case.

  • Dennis May 10, 2010, 6:33 pm

    Economic Sabotage
    Why does no one deduct there is always the possibility that a virus has been implanted into the trading forex computer system? And last weeks 1,000 point drop just a trial run to bring down the wallstreet towers?
    Tick…Tick..Tick

  • Oliver May 10, 2010, 5:50 pm

    Kevin: Ya, but once one has figured that out, making money is easy. I´ve never lived through times where it was so easy, ironically, to go long intraday with the ugliest of leverages (regularly with between 100-200 times leverage). Trail your stops or hedge the gains.
    always bet with the Fed :-))

  • Rich May 10, 2010, 5:18 pm

    Aloha All

    DNA indeed Rick: the fight or flight reflex.

    The invisible hand warned us to evacuate, with Katrina; now Kars running on oil and Gulfwater.

    Wall Street Money Never Sleeps sequel suggests not only is greed good; now it’s legal.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6eKyYYMh20 1:46

    Colbert covered the mid-April Newsweek cover that marked the top:

    http://tpmlivewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/04/colbert-applauds-newsweeks-americas-back-cover-its-like-a-close-up-of-uncle-sams-crotch-video.php 2:16

    Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein Makes $5,000 An Hour — ‘Six If There’s Kissing’ (VIDEO)

    Last week we had solar flares and active electromagnetic storms most of the week, peaking around the market meltdown and panic up.

    http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/

    One of the requirements for the Hindenburg Omen is multiple 90% down dayz. We had them.

    The most compelling remaining delusion may be that gold and silver are a safe refuge when everything else falls apart. Can’t eat them.

    Never fear; Colbert’s financial adviser Gorlock says we should just relax and fatten up…

    Regards*Rich

  • Dave May 10, 2010, 4:21 pm

    For those following financial astrology, we have been in a Mercury Retrograde period beginning 4/17/10 ending tomorrow 5/11/10. The program “glitch” last week was a great example of can happen during these 3-4x/year period. Mercury, aka Quicksilver, speeds things up, here starting with GS SEC event. “Normal” returns by Wednesday.

  • johnjay May 10, 2010, 3:04 pm

    Mario, morals went out the window in the USA back in the 60s when LBJ took us down the welfare/warfare path. His inflation to pay for Vietnam and his Great Society sent everyones mom out to work and money took priority over family and a cohesive homelife. Draft dodging, gaming the welfare system, etc. all made sense, playing by the old rules got you shot to pieces or dead in Nam or broke trying to support a family on one income.
    Then the Corporate Raiders started with some guy that bought out Bekins Van Lines to sell the real estate I believe. Since then it has been one long hate filled struggle for money and power with the most ruthless sociopaths geting ever more wealthy. Corporate Raiders morphed into Bernie Madoff , Hedge Funds, Goldman Sachs. No loyalty, not even to one’s own country or fellow citizens, screw everyone you can. Now we all live in a moral and economic wasteland, like it or not.

  • scott May 10, 2010, 1:50 pm

    I read where 200-300 billion dollars changed hands in those few minutes of “trading”. Who ended up with that money and who lost? It is more than just a fat finger that made a mistake, or even computers out of control. It is grand theft. It is the perfect crime. It will happen again and again. It is time to rethink investing if you are a small guy like me. Gold and silver seem like the only way to go at this crazy point in time.

  • Gary May 10, 2010, 1:00 pm

    Rick, It just goes to show, when one is “wildly bullish on stocks” as you were just a few days ago, it is time to be alert to this kind of thing happening.

  • Occdude May 10, 2010, 8:47 am

    This is probably the most expensive bandaid ever purchased in the history of man-kind.

    This aid package wont work of course. These geniuses of governance don’t realize the fundamental problem of this global economy and that is that now, the system is destroying itself in a very economic fashion. The system not being allowed to heal itself, is now producing gobs of economic goo, the more cash you feed into it, the more goo comes out. It’s a classic case of diminishing returns and I don’t need to tell you this, but it obviously will not end well. The whole world is tying its economic raft together as it serenely goes over Niagra Falls.

    So cover your shorts tomorrow bears and bide your time.

  • don May 10, 2010, 6:02 am

    DNA, great observation.
    Only one way to win at this game; limited or minimal debt and bullion. My granddaughter is campaigning for Obama to run again in 11-2010 so I can make a fool of myself again by campaigning, contributing and voting for
    the uh, uh, gentleman with the stooges, ie. Bernake,
    Summers, Geithner et.al.
    Don

  • mario cavolo May 10, 2010, 5:21 am

    Fabulous Rick….they have created a cyber monster beyond control. I understand that 70% of trading volume is done by the HFT’s and other automatic computer trading systems, more and more so a hegemonic private club where bets to profit on collapse can and do destroy the very game they are playing…its insane. Yet, I am guilty too? I am the little guy…I see what is going on…and thinking I want to somehow beat them or join them in their own game to secure my future for my wife, my children, so then I also take a short position because I think it will be profitable. So I am one of them too? Because all I care about is my own fair share and getting as much of it as I can…is that right? Hah, I profit because the euro goes down down down and because interest rates will go up up up because i know hot to profit from those movements…then in the end, it becomes a zero sum game? But where is the morality? Where is the commitment in the system to build a healthy country and society? It is no longer a moral imperative that is working and rigging the system as we have, we are going to destroy and lay waste to huge chunks of today’s socio-economic civilization. So what, its legal!…good grief…so if they will not play fair, then I will also not play fair, I will do my best to beat them or join them at their own game, not because I necessarily like it or agree with it, but for another very powerful reason, another genuine concern and in fact, ultimate concern that keeps me up at night and which millions of others are already facing because of these bastards.

    Fear of Poverty

    Cheers, Mario

  • Other Paul May 10, 2010, 3:38 am

    Unlike the WOPR, pulling the plug on the trading machines would be 100% effective. Excising greed from man’s DNA isn’t as easy.

  • kevin May 10, 2010, 3:25 am

    There’s a lot of wisdom here. Only fools think the bottom is in, and the market will go to zero because of all the new-fangled technology. Stocks no longer represent actual ownership of a business–the game is rigged!! Stocks are just meaningless numbers, and dollars only have value because everyone thinks they do.