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COMMENTARY for Wednesday
TODAY'S ACTION for Wednesday
Rick's Picks for Wednesday
Yesterday one-act performance provided yet another whoop-dee-doo rally that failed to push above the previous day’s high. Our focus should therefore remain on the 1140.10 correction target — or, alternatively, on the 1222.30 “look-to-the-left” peak where a rally would begin to look feisty. Best case today, based on the 15-minute chart, would be 1202.10, subject to a midpoint test at 1195.70. Those numbers will remain valid as long as 1189.20 has not been exceeded to the downside.
Silver appears to have bounced from a too-obvious place yesterday, a penny above the previous day’s spike low. We’ll give this evening’s moderate rally the benefit of the doubt nonetheless, and infer the possibility of more upside over the near term to 17.880 — or possibly to 17.975 if any higher. A negative offset, however, is that tonight’s thrust failed by a tick to generate an impulse leg that would have provided “camouflage” for a long entry.
The bull pattern show in the chart is as ugly as they get, but we may have to face up to its most exuberant possibility — i.e., a thrust to as high as 1136.50. The midpoint is 1093.75, but it’s not worth much for analytical purposes because it lies in the thick of the supply zone created last week. I have my doubts DaBoyz will be able to put shorts on the run for a second straight day, but they will at least have help from the recurring dearth of sellers.
IBM looks like the same kind of sleaze-trap as Apple, what with yesterday’s $7 gap-down opening followed by a $3.63 rally to close on the intraday high. This brazenly manipulated selloff did no damage whatsoever to the daily chart, and even on the “60″ it lacked the guts to take out a look-to-the-left low at 122.17 from July 6.
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Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
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Gulf Scare Stories Yet to Be Refuted
by Rick Ackerman on July 21, 2010 4:46 am GMT · 34 comments
Just when we thought it might be safe in another five or ten years to go back in the water, our muckraking colleague Matt Drudge is out with a report asserting that methane levels in certain areas of the Gulf of Mexico are a million times higher than normal. Drudge didn’t pull that number out of thin air, unfortunately – it came from a chemical oceanographer at Texas A&M named John Kessler. A “chemical oceanographer.” Doesn’t sound like a kook, does he? “Methane levels ranged from 10,000 to nearly one million times higher in some spots than normal concentration,” said Kessler, who had analyzed water samples collected from within a seven-mile radius of the Deepwater Horizon wellhead. The possible implication is that sea life could die off in a big way because of oxygen depletion, and that greenhouse emissions could cause the climate to change. » Read the full article