Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
COMMENTARY for Monday
TODAY'S ACTION for Monday
Rick's Picks for Monday
The bull pattern shown in the chart projects to 1136.50 – equivalent to a rally of about 300 points in the Dow. The 1093.75 midpoint resistance put up a good fight as last week drew to a close, but in the end, as we have seen so often, selling was overpowered by short-covering. As of around 9 p.m. EDT Sunday night, the futures were on a minor “buy” signal tripped at 1101.00. The rally appears likely to hit 1107.75 if the 1103.25 midpoint is exceeded, but you’ll have to board this one on your own, since there are too many obvious ABC patterns pointing higher, and therefore the potential for numerous stop-outs below a series of ‘C’s.
Today’s E-Mini S&P tout alludes to the possibility of a 300-point rally in the Dow, but the exact target is 10757, implying a surge of about 350 points. That’s a Hidden Pivot, and, as is the case with the E-Minis, Friday’s pop destroyed the midpoint resistance (10383).
The next upthrust has the potential to reach 131^05, so we should look diligently for ways to buy this minor correction. I’ll recommend a 126^08 bid, stop 126^04, but you should be on the lookout for camouflage opportunities arising from any minor ABC rally, since it’s possible the futures won’t retrace all the way down to the Hidden Pivot support at 126^07. As of around 9:30 p.m. Sunday night, the three-minute chart looked like the best place to scout for the turn. _______ UPDATE (10:45 a.m. EDT): The futures dove sharply to a low at 126^11, three ticks from our bid, before bouncing robustly. Cancel the order, since our odds will never be quite as good when we settle for sloppy seconds. The original target remains theoretically valid nonetheless. For the record, there was a camouflage entry signal at 126^17 around 10:06 a.m. EDT that would have gotten you long for a very short ride to as high as 126^26.
The lesser charts were transformed into rubbish by last week’s price action, but we can still use a vague midpoint support at 1182.80 to warn of the next bout of pseudo-weakness. Its breach on a closing basis would portend possible additional downside over the near term to 1161.70 — one downside target among many at this point. Alternatively, an upthrust today touching 1207.00 would put bears mildly on-the-run.
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
This Just In... for Monday
Over at James Howard Kunstler’s sensational blog, Clusterfuck Nation, there’s a well-reasoned argument that “this recession, or whatever you want to call it,” is actually a “compressive deflationary contraction” — i.e., “an accelerating systemic collapse of activity due to over-investments in hyper-complexity.” Read the complete essay by clicking here.
Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held on Feb. 29th - Mar. 1st. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Don’t Expect Apple to Drag Stocks Higher
by Rick Ackerman on July 26, 2010 2:54 am GMT · 10 comments
It’s not your imagination — even ostensibly “exciting” stocks have been screwing the pooch since spring. Apple, for one. In recent weeks, it has been one of DaBoyz’ favorite con-jobs because of a signal-reception problem in the iPhone4. When news reports concerning the product’s poorly designed antenna maxed out a little more than a week ago, it looked like a major corporate blunder. We don’t mean the kind of blunder that would ultimately affect the bottom line more than a jiggle or a jot; rather, the story provided a perfect excuse for institutional buyers to shake the stock down so that they could steal it at fire-sale prices from widows and orphans. The last time AAPL was manipulated in this way, it was a riskier bet, since the story that was used to move the stock up and down concerned Steve Jobs’ health. Reports of his battle with a rare form of pancreatic cancer first » Read the full article