Friday, September 3, 2010

On Wednesday the Euro popped up out of its seven-day trading range and will become very bullish if it reaches a "D" target of 1.2971.  If the US dollar heads lower, perhaps in response to non-farm payrolls data, the Euro will go the other way, toward a midpoint pivot at 1.2873 and, if higher, toward a cluster of prior highs dating from mid-August.  These prior levels will be surpassed before the sibling "D" target of 1.2971 is reached, a pivot which is truly in the middle of nowhere and could offer a fine scalping opportunity on the short side.  Another level of importance is the Lindsay point of a daily pattern, just above the 1.2873 midpoint.  This not-yet-active pattern was covered in our Euro tout of September 1.  (Posted by Doug McLagan)

Gold has bounced off three Hidden Pivots in three trading sessions, and this morning we will watch the reaction to the employment report.  A print of 1259.2 or higher will signal continued bullishness.  Yesterday we noted a new intraday pattern that was close to being confirmed whose midpoint was at 1255.6.  Gold obliged by activating the pattern and rallying to within four ticks of that pivot.  Now comes the non-farm payrolls report (at 8:30 a.m. EDT), frequently used as an excuse by anti-gold forces to sell aggressively.  Today’s attached graphic is chock full of information, including "D" targets at 1267.2 and 1291.9, both of whose sibling midpoints have performed well (to say the least).  But there is one additional Hidden Pivot to consider: the “D” target at 1258.7, visible on the daily chart and associated with A=1192.5.  This target would be decisively surpassed by a print of 1259.2 or higher, which would signal more upside to come.  Should NFP be met with selling, unfortunately Hidden Pivot analysis has nothing to say about where to bottom-fish: the patterns are all bullish.  Don’t you hate when that happens?  (Posted by Doug McLagan)

To repeat:  The bullish impulse leg created by Thursday's high is likely to influence price action for a while to come -- perhaps 5-7 days or longer -- and the implications would grow still more bullish if the futures are able to push above 1098.50 without pulling back to create a b-c correction on the daily chart.  Even if they were to do so, they could retrace all the way down to 1057.25 without damaging the bullish case one bit.  Please note that any booster-stage rally of 13.25 points from within the range 1057.25-1068.50 should be considered a downpayment on a thrust to as high as 1121.50.

[Alan Geik, whose razor-edged essays on our sordid political culture have gained him a loyal following at Seeking Alpha and other popular web sites, has been a lifelong student of frauds and scams, and so writing about this Era of Bailouts comes naturally to him.  In the essay below (which contains some great links that we would encourage you to follow, including a video punch line at the end), he explains not only why the global financial crisis is not going away any time soon, but why it is likely to get much worse before it gets better.  To bolster his conclusions, Alan draws a bead on some of the bigger-than-life buffoons and greedy political hacks who have helped to amuse and entertain us even as they have unwittingly contributed to the collapse of the global economy. An egregious example of the breed is Fed. Governor Mishkin, who in 2006, with amazingly bad timing and lack of prescience, presented a paper entitled “Iceland’s Financial Stability.”  There are also some piquant notes on the recent misdoings of a world-class buffoon who needs no introduction, Sen. Christopher Dodd. Enjoy! RA] Beginning with this somewhat worn animated video, Worst Slide Story, will hopefully lend a light, amused tone to my few observations about the iCorrosion of the Empire. Also, a bit of light comedy might lessen the appearance that this is just another frustrated Financial Collapse to Come rant. I have written several articles outlining the two major Wall Street conceived scams of the 1980s; the Latin American Debt Crisis and the S&L bailout. Back then lobbyists gave Congress hooks on which to support massive Wall Street loans to Latin American dictators (“we need to help third world economic development”) and also, to their own S&L campaign contributors (“we need to support small