The new season is underway, and some of the trends we noted yesterday were reversed in Tuesday trading: stocks weakened, and bonds and the dollar rallied. But gold kept rising, and at least one battle in the big silver showdown was fought to a draw in spite of the first trade above $20 per ounce in two years. In today's touts we cover all these markets except for the bonds. (Posted by Doug McLagan)
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
DXU10 – September Dollar Index (Last:82.70)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksThe September U.S. Dollar Index futures surpassed a midpoint pivot on Tuesday, which tells us that the sibling "D" target at 83.33 will likely be reached. The dollar rallied and the Euro fell hard on Tuesday, reversing trends in effect late last week. Should the dollar reach its 83.33 target, it will nonetheless fail to surpass last week's highs, and might be expected to initiate a new downtrend from there. Traders can short the target with a stop at 83.41, just above those prior highs. (Posted by Doug McLagan) _______ UPDATE (1:20 p.m. EDT): After a pullback, the dollar index rallied back to just above the midpoint for a second time, after which it fell below our "C" point and broke the pattern. Therefore the 83.33 target is no longer active, and the trade should not be undertaken.
SIZ10 – December Silver (Last:19.92)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksOn Tuesday December Silver popped its head above $20 per ounce for the first time in two years. Subsequent gyrations gave rise to a pattern whose midpoint was hit precisely and whose "D" target of 20.14 is next on the bullish agenda. We are letting the midpoint hit determine our starting point for the pattern, but the alternatives could put the target as high as 20.205. A print of 20.22 would signal that silver is ready to gun for its next big target at 20.45, which we described (and depicted) in our September 1 tout. (Posted by Doug McLagan)
GCZ10 – December Gold (Last:1259.2)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksDecember Gold is aiming for two Hidden Pivots just above the ten-week high made yesterday, after which it will target its all-time high. On Tuesday, gold continued its hitting streak by peaking at exactly 1261.6, a level we had touted in bold and color just hours earlier. (It is probably time to change our terminology to say that it is the Hidden Pivot method that is on a hitting streak in the gold market.) The 1262.3 pivot highlighted yesterday is still in play, as is a new midpoint pivot at 1263.8. Above there we have no pivots below the all-time high of 1270.6. The sibling "D" target to the new midpoint is at 1271.4, but if that level is blown away by a breakout surge, watch for resistance at 1284.1. The pair of pivots at 1263.8 and 1271.4 depend on their "C" point of 1256.2 remaining untouched. Should that "C" point be re-set, pivoteers will have to recalculate, using A=1246.4. (Posted by Doug McLagan)
ESU10 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1091.00)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksThe futures took a drubbing yesterday and appeared bound for at least 1089.00 at the close. That's a minor Hidden Pivot midpoint, but if it's bruised we can infer the more selling awaits with the potential to reach its 'd' sibling at 1081.25. This is just little stuff, but keep in mind that the weakness could come all the way down to 1063.50 and still be considered a healthy retracement of a still-robust bull trend. That would represent a 0.618 correction of the rally begun from 1037.50 on August 31, and it could set the stage for a powerful new rally leg with 70 points of potential. The onset of such a rally would be signaled by a booster-stage thrust of 17.50 points beginning from anywhere north of 1063.50.
Big Business Breeds Failure in New Jersey
– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free[One of my oldest and closest friends, Glenn Klotz, is also one of the most politically liberal. Although I usually assume that many, if not most, of those on the left are factually impaired, that is surely not the case with Glenn. He is up on his facts, well read, and can hold his own in any argument. Following is a letter he wrote me when I challenged his heavy skepticism toward New Jersey’s new Governor, Chris Christie. I think the guy will be great for New Jersey, and that he may even prove to be presidential material. Glenn thinks he is just another Jersey pol who ultimately will favor the interests of Big Business over the little guy. RA] The long and the short of my position politically these days is this: I'm not an ideologue of either the left or the right. I am however anti-Corporatist. As I see it, the problem in this country today, and in particular in New Jersey, is that BIG is everything. Big Business. Big Government. Together, the two dominate the landscape to the exclusion of anything or anyone else. With their overwhelming political power, economic clout and their sheer size, these dinosaur-sized Enterprises and Orgs, both public and private, are squeezing out smaller public and private businesses and institutions. On the private side, you could call it the “Wal-Mart-ization of America” if you like; and on the public side, the tyranny of Big Government over all that is small. Now, why do I say the tyranny over the small and not the large? Simply because I believe statistics and facts show that in America today, size counts when it comes to how you are treated by public-sector regulators, law enforcement and, especially, politicians. In New Jersey today, and nationally, there is a