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Yesterday was most impressive — if tedium is the yardstick. Even though we found the best opportunity of the day during an online trading session, initiating a long position a tick off the intraday low, it went nowhere after an initial run-up of 8 points. The implied, theoretical gain of $400 is not bad, considering we risked only a theoretical $50 at the outset. However, we were denied an additional $800 of profit per contract when the futures failed to even head-fake a run at their actual target of 1159.75, 16 points higher. This was pretty sobering. We are constantly reminding you that there is virtually no bullish buying in this market — only short-squeeze rallies that lift the futures from one resistance level to the next. All of the evidence suggests this is true, but we are still amazed at how the dynamic sometimes seems capable of propelling stocks upward indefinitely.
There is no real selling either, presumably because individual investors are out of the market, and that has been a factor in the rise of shares. But the by-now predictable pattern of tedious, turgid consolidation until the next short-squeeze has been primed has made market-watching almost unbearable. There is unlikely to be any excitement today either, but if you’re looking for (relatively) easy opportunity, try bidding a tick above a Hidden Pivot support at 1133.25, stop 1132.75. You’ll be on your on if the order fills (which could conceivably happen overnight), but that would pre-empt the 1159.75 target, replacing it with another at 1164.00 — a Hidden Pivot midpoint — and its ‘D’ sibling at 1164.00. _______ UPDATE: The overnight low was 1134.25, so we missed getting on board the gratuitous, 19-point trash rally that followed by three ticks. The futures eventually detumesced back down to the pivot, but we just watched, unenticed by sloppy seconds.
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A Hidden Pivot at 1534.30 flagged here earlier is pulling the futures lower, along with a secondary target (shown) at 1532.70. Camouflage is called for if bottom-fishing, so start looking for the turn on the 5-minute (or less) chart from 1535.80 on down. If these supports give way easily and, heaven forbid, the futures close below them, the next stop would likely be 1500.00, the ‘D’ target of the large pattern shown. Night owls could also use a 1520.30 target to bottom-fish — without camouflage. A four-tick stop-loss should suffice. Want to learn how to do this stuff yourself? Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar on June 6-7.
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There are numerous bearish patterns we can use to project a potentially important low, but the one that I like most has three single-bar coordinates, all sharply etched. They produce a 358.38 ‘D’ target, and although I cannot guarantee that will be where the carnage ends, it would most surely be worth bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss. My best-case scenario implies that the low was made yesterday at 390.63, just 0.59 points from the ‘D’ target shown in lavender. To take the offensive, bulls would need to push this vehicle to 422.47 by Thursday.
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WSJ Finally Notices Gold’s Bull Market
by Rick Ackerman on September 30, 2010 1:35 am GMT · 29 comments
Should we be worried now that the Wall Street Journal has “discovered” the bull market in gold? Relax. This bull market has years to go. It’s so powerful, in fact, that it will easily be able to shrug off yesterday’s front-page headline in the Journal, “Gold Vaults to New High,” and continue into the ozone. With the price of gold up 353% since 2000, the Journal was bound to notice the bull market sooner or later. A related headline on page two further qualified gold’s leap to new record highs as being related to “global worries.” This is true as far as it goes, but it overlooks the fact that gold has risen even in years when we weren’t so worried. And that is what we like most about the bull market in bullion: Whatever investment “story” has been out there over the last decade, gold as » Read the full article