A print today at 29.650 would perk up the hourly chart, but failing that, we could consider bottom-fishing at 28.940 if the futures fall moderately. If a tight stop-loss on that trade were to get hit, it could portend more downside to 28.280, a Hidden Pivot; or perhaps to 28.170, where a trendline shown here yesterday comes in. _______ UPDATE (10:43 a.m. ET): The futures bottomed at 28.945, a single tick from my target. If you got on board at the low, partial profit-taking is in order, since the powerful bounce has amounted to 24 cents as of this moment. Officially we hold no position, since the one-tick miss was as good as a mile.
From the monthly archives:
December 2010
With some upward chop along the way to alleviate the tedium, February Gold is trading exactly where it was nine weeks ago in mid-October. Yesterday, the futures never even got close to the modest benchmarks I’d flagged above and below the market. Since they remain valid as, respectively, bullish and bearish trigger points, I’ll repeat the numbers for your guidance: 1412.50 or 1370.80. In addition, a two-day close above a Hidden Pivot midpoint at 1401.90 would strongly imply a follow-through to at least 1442.10. As before, if the futures fall, the first place we might try to bottom-fish other than via camouflage is 1370.80, the midpoint support of a corrective pattern.
During this week’s tutorial session, I was joking, sort of, when I said it might take the rest of the week for this swamp-gas hoax to reach an extremely modest, 1257.25 rally target that even now seems as inevitable as the next sunrise. Anyone who got long on my say-so has been accruing profits at the rate of about 12 cents an hour, but your diligence should have produced sufficient gains by day’s end to buy lunch. If you’ve stayed long for the whole, fabulous ride, risk some of your lucre to get short with a 1258.25 stop-loss. Take the position home overnight only if it is at least 4.00 point in-the-black at the bell.
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We own four January 111 puts for 0.97, but there is no point enduring more pain, considering that we were speculating without a price objective to begin with. Accordingly, I’ll suggest that you exit the puts on a sell-stop if they trade for 0.47. (Note: The so far low, achieved Wednesday, is 0.49.) We’ll try to get short again at another, presumably more opportune, time. _______ UPDATE: We exited the puts @ 0.47 off an intraday low of 0.46. The trading loss was $205 plus commissions.
Over the very near-term, the futures are going to at least 1257.25, the Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown. It looks too obvious to short comfortably, but if you are hankering to get long, I’d suggest leveraging a camouflage entry opportunity on the three- or five-minute chart.
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The herky-jerky uptrend has become too tiresome to forecast, although it should be noted that yesterday’s head-fake, the fifth in as many days, failed to refresh the bull trend on the hourly chart. That would have taken an impulsive thrust above a small peak at 29.645 made December 14 on the way down, whereas the actual high occurred four cents lower, at 29.605. Bottom-fishing could be attempted tonight at 29.180 if 29.460 hasn’t been exceeded to the upside first. My worse-case downside projection for the near term is 28.195, based on the trendline shown in the chart (which we acknowledged earlier).
The hourly chart would begin to throw off sparks if the futures were to print 1412.40 today, since that would create a very robust impulse leg. Alternatively, a close above a midpoint pivot at 1401.90 would shorten the odds of a follow-through to at least 1442.10, and a two-day close above it would make such a push likely. The ABC pattern that projects to that number is shown in the accompanying chart. If the futures fall, however, the first place we would try to bottom-fish, other than via camouflage, is 1370.80, the midpoint support of the bearish pattern shown in the chart.
Booming Ethiopia Is the New Face of Africa
by Rick Ackerman on December 23, 2010 1:24 am GMT · 32 comments
(Here’s a man-bites dog story from Cam Fitzgerald, a frequent contributor to Rick’s Picks who lived for a while in Ethiopia. Cam paints a picture of an African nation that will be unfamiliar to many readers; for in fact, even though Ethiopia has only begun to emerge from poverty, its economic prospects are as bright as you will find anywhere on the African continent. To understand why, read Cam’s first-hand report . RA)
This is a growth story. A few years ago, I spent some time living in Ethiopia. I was in the suburbs of Addis Ababa, getting to know one terrific family in particular: the mother, who was the real head of the household; the father, Abba, a shoemaker; and his four single daughters, all in their thirties. What could possibly go wrong? OK, I am already getting off track. This is supposed to be an article about Ethiopia’s boom and the inflation that has come in its wake. I call the daughters “my gals” when I talk about them with friends, and we keep in touch almost daily via e-mail. One is a student, and the other three work: as a translator, a seamstress and a secretary. They all have good educations, speak English and are in every way typical of women you might meet anywhere in the » Read the full article