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From the monthly archives:
April 2011
If you’re betting against the dollar, it looks like you’ll have the wind at your back down to at least 72.26, a Hidden Pivot support whose provenance is shown in the chart. Judging from the way sellers bombed another, far more important, one at 73.51, I wouldn’t count too heavily on a big bounce from 72.26, even if it might suffice for scalpers. A major target at 68.36 is unlikely to be reached without an intervening, strong upthrust, but evidence continues to mount that it will indeed be achieved.
I’m not going to venture too far out on a limb with predictions for this rabid animal as it takes the measure of a $50 “barrier” that perhaps too many traders expect to be so challenging. If I were the rabid animal, just to make a point, I’d pop through $50 on a Friday, then leave the precious metals world hanging in suspense by closing $1 to $2 above it for the weekend. In any event, once the midpoint resistance at 49.670 flagged here earlier falls, its sibling ‘D’ target at 54.725 will be waiting for us with open arms.
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The 1371.00 rally target given here yesterday remains valid, even if the stall that I’d guaranteed precisely at its sibling midpoint, 1359.00, missed by two ticks. (Friday morning update: Now missed by one tick, since today’s high so far is 1358.75.) I’ve checked the 3-minute chart in search of ‘camo’ opportunities for night owls, but as of around 7:20 p.m. there didn’t appear to be enough subtlety in the upthrusts to give us the edge we typically look for.
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There are no clear markers for predicting the magnitude of the next thrust, but the longer it takes to build a base near $50, the further it will go. More immediately, bulls are stealing up on a 49.670 midpoint resistance whose breach, especially on a closing basis, could set up a follow-through to as high as 54.725 over the near term.
The 1533.40 rally target given here earlier, a Hidden Pivot resistance, is very much in play, subject at any time to a possible swoon to 1512.70, its sibling midpoint. A more important target, previously given, at 1581.20 looms as a potentially important high. Its midpoint is 1446.50. _______ UPDATE (1:26 a.m. EDT): Gold has surged $18 so far tonight, slightly exceeding my target with a so-far high at 1534.00. The next Hidden Pivot — a major one — lies just $47 above, and at this rate it’s going to be hit a sooner than I had imagined.
Wherein Gary North Rallies My Deflationist Side…
by Rick Ackerman on April 29, 2011 12:53 am GMT · 106 comments
Just when I thought it was safe to set the Hyperinflation vs. Deflation debate on autopilot, along comes Gary North with a smugly condescending essay posted at lewrockwell.com that put my name in the headline and unspoken words in my mouth: “Rick Ackerman Defects to the Hyperinflationists Camp After 30 Years.” Not so fast, Gary. I’d still back anyone with a good deflation argument, of which there are many, and I can still take the deflationist side of the debate against you or anyone else without fear of getting pushed around. Nor will I ever be comfortable sitting in the same pew as Liro Gonzala, Jim Willie and a few other inflationistas who go “all-in” every time someone even mildly contradicts them. And just because I was impressed with FOFOA blogspot’s hyperinflation arguments is no reason to infer that I cannot find holes in them. Even he doesn’t claim to have a crystal ball, or that the debate is over. » Read the full article