Today’s tout for the E-Mini S&P implies that more upside is a foregone conclusion. However, shortly before 4 a.m. EDT — 90 minutes after the tout was published — the futures were off 2.50 points, hinting that DaBoyz are trying to prop them up, not shake them down to bargain levels.
From the monthly archives:
May 2011
It’s been a while since we checked in on this stock, but if it is still a reliable bellwether for the market as a whole, the picture is not especially bright at the moment. Apple has moved sideways in 2011 despite doing gangbusters business. Now, it is in the throes of a rally with the potential to reach 365.70, a Hidden Pivot, but my gut tells me it will sputter out at the midpoint resistance associated with that number, 348.22. Accordingly, I’ll recommend buying two June 330 puts, good-till-canceled, if and when the stock gets within 15 cents of that last number. Stop yourself out of the position, however, if AAPL trades above 348.45.
The June contract is working on the modest, bullish impulse leg shown in the chart, and it looks like work indeed. We looked at this pattern during yesterday’s webinar, and although it has performed in line with our expectations, which called for the creation of a point ‘C’ low, there has been little follow through. Now, if the futures relapse without having achieved a minor rally target at 1503.70, expect the decline to come down to at least 1483.10, the Hidden Pivot midpoint support of the southbound pattern shown.
The futures have been struggling for two days to reach a not-very ambitious rally target at 35.885. The price action is discouraging, although it is a mild short-term plus that bulls have yet to yield much ground below the 34.820 midpoint pivot shown in the chart. If it holds and there’s subsequently a pop above the labeled peak at 35.775, a finishing stroke to the target would become an odds-on bet.
The high of yesterday’s rally and the six hours of sideways pooch-screwing in after-hours trading have fallen just shy of Monday’s 1341.25 peak, suggesting that buying enthusiasm is dubious at best. No matter, though, since the resistance seems likely to be surmounted by yet another volume-less short-squeeze overnight or on the opening. The thrust would have to clear the look-to-the left peak at 1347.00, however, to get on our radar. We remain short one contract from 1358.25, stop 1363.00.
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Gold was extending its encouraging rally Tuesday night, but even with the ten bucks the June contract has tacked on in after-hours trading, the move is still about $8 shy of generating a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. Night owls should set a screen alert at 1497.60, since that’s where the good times will start, if they do.
Yesterday’s tedious price action left the current forecast unchanged, given as follows: Because the last significant bounce came a few days ago from an exact midpoint support at 32.300 (see chart), it behooves us to take its ‘D’ sibling at 25.130 seriously. The lower number won’t be officially in play unless the futures close beneath the midpoint for two consecutive days or trade more than 15 cents below it intraday, but bulls will not be out of the woods until such time as they can muster a pop above the 42.325 ‘look-to-the-left’ peak recorded May 4 on the way down.
Yesterday’s bounce from within a dollar of a key Hidden Pivot midpoint at 1470.10 confirmed the viability of the pattern we’d used to predict a swing low there. Under the circumstances, the low could prove to be the last gasp of the correction that lurched violently into gear a little more than two weeks ago. However, it is also implied that if 1470.10 is breached by more than 1.50 points (or so) intraday, or, more tellingly, on a closing basis, the futures would likely head down to at least 1413.50 before finding traction. Please note that it will still take a print at 1543.60 to turn the hourly chart bullish.
Why Gold and Silver May Have Bottomed
by Rick Ackerman on May 19, 2011 12:01 am GMT · 18 comments
[Have Gold and Silver seen their lows for this correction? Were encouraged to think so, for two reasons. First, downtrends in both Comex June Gold and July Silver reversed on Tuesday from precisely where they should have if the long-term uptrend is to be judged healthy. Second, our astute friend and mining stock consultant Chuck Cohen, who turned cautious on bullion just before the correction began, thinks the selling may have run its course. In the guest commentary below, he explains why. RA]
Like Freddy Krueger, it’s back. The infallible New York Times contrary indicator has returned for another testing. If you remember last August at the market bottom, amidst the palpable gloom on Wall Street, the Times was moved to interview superbear Bob Prechter on the dire market situation, not coincidentally within a week of the bottom. At the time, I mentioned the Times contrarian indicator in a lengthy essay published at LeMetropole Café, 22 Things to Look for When Gold Finally Makes Its Top.
For some amazing coincidence, since the Times rarely takes sides at the markets, when it does it is usually right on the money — on the wrong side. Lo, last Sunday, one of the Times‘ savvy financial reporters wrote about the seemingly endless gold bubble and the danger of getting caught in it. Read it and see what I mean. In particular, note the clear logic that gold has had a major correction of 4% after doubling from its bottom in 2008. The size of the correction is definitely proof that what goes up must always come down — except for the thousands of positive articles the Times put out on housing through the mania several years ago. » Read the full article