Thursday, August 25, 2011

Subtle Signs, Big Conclusions

– Posted in: Tutorials

We must always be on the lookout for subtle technical signs on the long-term charts, since they can provide important clues concerning the temperament of a bull or bear market. It is on the monthly chart of the Dow Industrials that we looked for and found small details with potentially large significance. Has this summer’s 2200-point crash in the Dow marked a resumption of the secular bear? This session provides some illuminating details that bear directly on that question.

CLZ11 – December Crude (Last:85.99)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Crude's airless tedium during the last three weeks has somehow produced a pattern of unexpected clarity.  Moreover, because the futures have decisively exceeded the 85.56 midpoint of the pattern shown more upside to its 'D' sibling is 90.96.  There are many ways to trade this forecast, but you'll need to do the improvising yourself in real time.

ESU11 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1168.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Buyers made slow headway yesterday toward our 1215.00 target, but we can use another, lesser Hidden Pivot at 1184.00 today to get a more subtly nuanced reading of their gumption (or perhaps lack thereof). That Hidden Pivot should show enough stopping power to be shortable, so we'll do so officially with an 1185.25 stop-loss.  If you can work the trade using camouflage, that could help to cut down the risk even more. _______ UPDATE (10:31 a.m. EDT):  We were stopped out for a theoretical loss of $63 per contract when the Da Boyz short-squeezed the opening bars to 1188.50. It proved to be a bull trap, since the futures fell 25 points in less than an hour.  Practically speaking, this little bit of nastiness was absolute perfection, since it not only made it unbearable for shorts to stick with positions initiated yesterday or overnight, it made it darned near impossible for bears on the sidelines to catch what would have been a very profitable ride south.  There were no short-entry spots for camouflageurs even on the one-minute chart.

SIU11 – September Silver (Last:39.425)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The downtrend seemed to struggle late in the session in a so-far failed attempt to grope its way down to the 38.670 Hidden Pivot 'd' of the pattern shown. The picture lacks sufficient clarity to offer good odds for bottom-fishing at a 'p' midpoint or 'd' target, but we can still use 37.295 as a worst-case price objective for the near term. That number comes from taking the lower b-c pairing shown.  Alternatively, it would take a print today at 40.780 to turn the lesser charts bullish once again.

GCZ11 – December Gold (Last:1737.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

A minor correction target at 1712.50 sticks out on the three-minute chart, although the hourly says that any slippage could lop off an additional $9, sending the futures down to 1703.90 in search of traction.  The midpoint support -- now a resistance -- of the larger pattern lies at 1748.60, so any rebound to that number should be scrutinized by camouflageurs looking for tradable opportunities.  The same goes for bottom-fishing at either of the two downside targets, but the lower will probably be the safer bet. ______ UPDATE (8:42 a.m. EDT):  Although I won't assume subscribers caught this trade, it would have been easy to get aboard overnight, or later in the morning  at 1726.90, when the futures set up a 40-point thrust with the following 'camo' pattern on the one-minute chart: A=1710.90  (9:39 a.m. EDT), B=1729.50, and C=1722.20. Take a look at this one, since impulse leg and abc coordinates had absolutely everything we look for.

Only Crazies Believe It’s Over for Gold

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

It seems like a terrible waste of energy to haul gold down by nearly $200, as has occurred this week, only to run it back up to new all-time highs next week.  Or will it be different this time?  Show of hands: How many of you think the POG will never, ever reach $2000 an ounce?  That’s what we thought.  Still, you can’t blame bulls for grumbling when DaBoyz decide to let the bottom drop out for a couple of days.  And that’s exactly what they did, presumably because they had grown wary of chasing gold who-knows-how-high. And make no mistake, it is bulls who caused this week’s carnage, including the $112 selloff that occurred so swiftly yesterday.  It’s not as though a bunch of sellers panicked and dashed for the exit all at once, trampling the strong hands who have sponsored gold’s rise from $250 an ounce.  No, it was a case of buyers simply going AWOL – for just a short while, we are pretty confident. There was no conspiratorial meeting in a smoke-filled room to arrange all of this, just a tacit consensus that gold was ready for a breather before it launches its inevitable assault on $2000. Yesterday’s “breather” should have scared the pants off speculators and investors who had grown complacent about the trend. But that is what bull markets are supposed to do:  punish bulls and bears alike. Otherwise, it would be too easy for all of us to get rich.  Thus do we see bursts of virile strength punctuated by devastating swoons. Losses are often recouped so quickly that even hard-core bulls are left in the dust, too bewildered and dazed to climb back aboard.  And yet, more than anyone else, they understand that the monetary forces that have been pushing bullion relentlessly