Friday, September 16, 2011

No matter what news has driven Apple sharply lower on any given day, week or month in the past decade, there has not been a single instance where the loss was not quickly recouped by strong hands eager to transform each plunge into a swoon. The company has so many fabulously promising revenue streams -- ones, even,  that will produce solid income if the world economy were to slip into Depression -- that we should always be buyers on weakness.  In any event, the stock topped yesterday almost precisely at the 393.56 Hidden Pivot shown (Daily chart where A=365 on August 25),  but if it closes one more day above it, we should expect a test of late July's all time high at 404.

It doesn't look good at the moment for bullion, but check out today's touts for Gold and Silver if you want to know precisely where they'll have a chance to turn around.

Are these guys good, or what? I set alerts a week ago above and below what I had assumed to be the "controlled zone" for the Swissie. Lo, the gnomes have barely let the futures budge. Surely they are having to resist a tide of buying that is counting on Burgher rectitude to prevent the Swiss franc from joining all of the other currencies on the dungheap of international finance?  Whatever the case, the 120-minute chart is bullishly impulsive at its right-hand edge, so let's sit back and enjoy world-class defensive play in the big leagues of fiat money.  Want to learn how to nail swing highs and lows precisely, and to manage trade risk yourself? Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar on October 5-6 and a $50 discount.

A downside target at 38.760 flagged here earlier is still my minimum retracement objective, but if it's breached by more than a few ticks, look for the selling to continue down to at least 38.375.  Either of these Hidden Pivot supports can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as two ticks, but the most conservative way to play it -- the one we will use officially -- is to buy-stop a camouflaged 'X' entry trigger after the futures have closely approached the lower number. _______ UPDATE (12:23 p.m. EDT):  The futures have rallied robustly from a not-very-scary hole, tacking nearly $1.50 onto yesterday's low.  The so-far high at 40.895 is encouraging, but I'd feel even better about it if buyers can take this vehicle seven cents higher, exceeding a 40.950 peak "along the wall" that was recorded Wednesday on the way south. _______ UPDATE (12:31 p.m. EDT):  Moments after the update went out, the futures punched through the 40.950 external peak, further brightening the picture for next week. This is a very bullish sign.

By exceeding the 1771.50 target we were using as a minimum downside objective, the futures have signaled still more weakness ahead.  Barring a very unlikely pop today to 1851.50, which would put bulls solidly back in charge, we can expect the downtrend to come increasingly under the sway of lows near 1700 made in late August.  They will turn magnetic if the December contract falls below 1750, exerting more influence, probably, than any Hidden Pivot support that I might offer.  The futures will have a chance to turn from just above that price today because there's a minor hidden support at 1753.90, but if it fails, you should brace for more selling. _______ UPDATE: (12:17 p.m. EDT):  Gold has pulled back from the brink as has been its wont for the last month, rallying sharply without having reached the 1753.90 correction target I'd flagged. This is ever-so-mildly bullish for the longer term, but the December contract will still need to push above 1851.50 to get out of limbo and revitalize the still-healthy long-term bull market.

A Hidden Pivot resistance at 1224.00 flagged here yesterday is our minimum upside target now that the futures have shredded its sibling midpoint, 1199.75.  Night owls should pay heed to the developing, bullish pattern shown in the chart, since a dip followed by a rally to its still-undetermined 'X' entry price could create a camouflage buying opportunity.

Is anyone really surprised by Netflix’s sudden fall from grace? The company’s shares have fallen 45 percent since mid-July, down 136 points from an all-time high of 305.  Nearly 40 of those points came yesterday alone, when the movie-rental company acknowledged that its customers have been canceling their subscriptions in droves, apparently because of a horrendous new pricing scheme announced earlier this summer.  It’s not often that a bell rings on Wall Street to tell investors it’s time to get out.  In this case, however, the ominous “clang!” came via an avalanche of complaints when Netflix aired plans in July to separate its DVD-by-mail service from its faster-growing Internet streaming service.  In the days that followed, the high-flying stock, a favorite of investors manifestly as brainless as they were giddy, shed 15 percent of its value.  NFLX never even bounced until mid-August, after it had lost a third of its value and was trading for around $200.  The firm’s new business model probably would have had little impact on revenues if they had retained their original pricing scheme. Instead, Netflix jacked fees substantially for both services, forcing many of its 25 million customers to choose one or the other. Each service now costs $8, but the price of DVDs delivered by mail has risen sharply for those who want to keep two or three DVDs in the pipeline at all times. Your editor has been a Netflix subscriber for years but was never crazy about the streaming service because the selection of titles stinks. It’ll do for teenagers who missed a movie at the suburban multiplex, but for buffs who enjoy good films, especially offbeat ones, Netflix’s streaming video catalogue was the pits. The company was so aggressive in trying to push customers onto streaming that one might have thought they had a