Thursday, September 29, 2011

A Hidden Pivot support at 1570.80 is still our minimum downside objective and looks likely to produce a tradable bounce.  However, its failure would portend further slippage over the near term to as low as 1462.40, its D sibling.  There is one more number we need to incorporate into a very worst-case scenario:  1395.90, a 'D' target that comes from the uppermost possible point 'A' of the bear cycle shown in the chart.  Its sibling midpoint lies at 1537.50, and although that number may already be magnetic, it will be of little value for bottom fishing because it closely coincides with the September 26 low, 1535.00.

Google has been marking time for more than six weeks, but unless it can pop above the 558.52 high recorded on September 20, a fall of at least 10 percent to the 478.88 target shown will remain in prospect. The stock has thus far held its ground near the midpoint support, but the failure of Tuesday's short-squeeze rally to stay aloft may force the hand of the stock's institutional sponsors.

The selloff begun a week ago is closing on an important midpoint support at 512.14 that closely coincides with an important structural support at 512.25 recorded on August 5. A bounce from the range seems very likely, given its doubly supportive price points, but we'll need to scrutinize each phase of it on the lesser charts to accurately assess its strength.

The futures are currently trading around the exact middle of the distribution zone formed by the wild price swings of the last six weeks. As such, there are no especially appealing swing trades in the offing, only whatever scalp-worthy opportunities can be extracted from the very lesser charts. Most immediately, that implies night owls can look for a turn from the 1140.00 midpoint support shown in the chart. If it doesn't come, however, the next logical spot for initiating a long position (via camouflage, hook, or crook)  would be at 1130.50.  A bigger picture suggests that the futures will want to come down to the 1088.75 midpoint of the ABC downtrend begun from July 22's  1341.75 high.  Want to learn how to nail swing highs and lows precisely, and to manage trade risk yourself? Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar on October 5-6 and a $50 discount.

...to all who celebrate the Jewish Holidays.  In observance of Rosh Hashanah, which begins Wednesday evening at sundown and marks the start of the year 5772, I will not be updating touts for Friday.  However, a fresh commentary will appear, and Doug 'Harry' McLagan will be posting timely analysis to finish the week for Gold and Silver futures.

With only a handful of players savvy enough to compete in the major leagues of tablet computing, competition has nonetheless erupted that is likely to hearten consumers, especially those who have tired of paying exorbitant prices for gadgets bearing the Apple logo. Yesterday, it was Amazon that stepped into the ring -- with Kindle Fire, a $199 tablet that will sell for less than half of the cheapest Apple model. The 7-inch display is only half the size of Apple’s, but as Hewlett Packard’s close-out sale for a similar device proved, buyers are willing and eager to forsake Apple products if the price is right. To be sure, Amazon has targeted the lower end of the market with a tablet that cannot do all of the tricks that iPad is capable of.  It lacks an embedded camera and microphone, for starters, and there is no 3G cellular connection, only Wi-Fi.  Give Amazon a little time, however – perhaps eight to twelve months -- and a fully-featured product will be able to go head-to-head with Apple’s best, but with the kicker of Amazon “content” to make it more than merely competitive. Amazon’s announcement, presented by CEO Jeff Bezos with Steve Jobs-like flair, comes on the heels of an announcement that Dish, through its recently acquired Blockbuster unit, will offer streaming movies and TV shows to compete with Netflix. Recall that Netflix shot itself in the foot last month with a horrific new pricing scheme that elicited a firestorm of protests from subscribers and enough cancellations to cause NFLX shares to collapse. Since July, they’ve fallen from $305 to a recent low of $125, or nearly 60 percent. Netflix founder Reed Hastings, who even now probably still doesn’t get it, responded with some pro forma blather about how he is sure Netflix