December 2011

A Final Look at the Markets

– Posted in: Links

Early Friday morning, on the last trading day of the year, we took a look at some favorites, including Comex gold and silver, coffee futures, the E-Mini S&P and the Junior Gold Miner ETF (GDXJ). If you missed the session, you can review the entire 75 minutes of it on this video at your leisure.

The Last Trading Day

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

We shouldn't expect much excitement on the final trading day of the year, since DaBoyz have already succeeded in manipulating stocks as high as anyone could have imagined just a few months ago.  In any event, I plan to drop by the chat room and to open an impromptu Hidden Pivot session online if anything interesting is going on.

GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:23.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

I rarely reference the opinions of other gurus here, but I couldn't help noticing that one seer whom I greatly respect, Steven Jon Kaplan, aka 'The True Contrarian,' is touting the Junior Gold Miner ETF at these levels. Hidden Pivot Analysis suggests, however, that this vehicle must fall a further 15.4%, to at least 19.46, before we think about buying it aggressively. If my colleague is going to be right, however, we needn't be caught flat-footed by the bullish turn he expects from here, since one could not occur without telegraphing it explicitly via the creation of a bullish impulse leg on charts of hourly degree or less.  On the '30-minute,' that would take a print today at  24.35, for example.  If you are a Pivoteer who is interested in this vehicle, I would ask that you please notify me whenever a bullish impulse leg is generated on the hourly or the 30-minute. Together, we should be able to nail a very tradable low.

SIH12 – March Silver (Last:26.975)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Yesterday's selloff made short work of an ostensibly solid Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 27.018 pivot, lending authority to its 18.355 sibling.  A 50% fall from here is not yet a done deal, although the futures are almost certain, at the very least, to breach late September's 26.185 low before they find traction. It could prove fleeting, but I would expect a bounce of at least $4 over a period of 3-5 days if bulls are to be given a fighting chance. Keep in mind that the bounce would be occurring with relatively few profit-takers aboard, since most bulls will have gotten shaken loose by the feint beneath 26.185.  If this rally were to fail to generate a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart (a feat that would require an unbroken sprint from 29.135 to 33.305), then we should prepare for the worst.

GCG12 – February Gold (Last:1557.60)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The downtrending ABC pattern highlighted in the chart is so straightforward that we shouldn't doubt its veracity.  However, as is so often the case, a Hidden Pivot support at 1544.70 that is crucial to our analysis lies within a hairs breadth of a structural support that "everyone" will be watching -- i.e., the September 26 bottom at 1543.40.  Under the circumstances, we should look for a turn in the vicinity of these two numbers, although not from either precisely.  Camouflage is the way to go if and when we try to get long speculatively, but we should assume that the magnetic/psychological attraction of the September low outweighs any "Hidden Pivot"effect" near 1544.70.  It would be most encouraging if the futures turn from at least 2-3 points above that number and then go on to create a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart.However, my gut feeling is that 1543.40 will need to be breached in order to shake out bulls. Of course, there are no guarantees that once the bulls' stops have been run, the ensuing rally will get very far.  If it goes for only a day or two after having breached so important a low as 2543.40, I would infer that 1445.70 (see inset) is an odds-on bet.

A detailed look at February Gold

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

Today's Gold tout goes into considerable detail in describing a limited number of scenarios that could play out in the days and weeks ahead. I've included a straightforward chart that I would urge you to study closely as you imbibe the possibilities I've spelled out.  If there's a payoff for your efforts, it is likely to come in the form of your complete readiness for whatever happens as the markets transition into 2012 and the oft-volatile month of January. Also, and for the record, I am hereby 'decoupling' from the largely unmodulated ideas of the bullion world's most revered preacher, Jim Sinclair, since there is that possibility that his stratospheric predictions will prove to be wrong. I will keep an open mind as always, but from this point forward, gold will have to prove to me each step of the way and on a strictly technical basis that it is indeed going much higher before I tell you so.

Short the E-Mini…and Profitable

– Posted in: Tutorials

Mr. Market provided us with an opportunity to short the E-Mini S&P using a ‘camouflage’ pattern on the one-minute bar chart. Although time ran out before we could profitably exit the third of four contracts initially sold, at the end of the hour the trade was just two ticks from a ‘D’ downside target worth $360 in theoretical gains. In addition, we would still be short a single contract with a chance to let our profits run. There is some detailed psychologizing in this lesson, since the futures took their sweet old time doing what we’d expected them to do.

ESH12 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1247.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

There appears to be zero buying interest at the moment, since the futures have been unable to achieve even the modest yardage needed to turn the daily chart impulsively bullish. Yesterday this weakness was evident in the failure of the futures for the second straight day to surpass the 1266.00 high recorded on December 8.  Still, bullish buyers are not needed to drive the market sharply higher -- only short-covering bears. The "news" that will catalyze this hysteria is impossible to predict, but until it comes we can only continue to mark time by nibbling on 'camo' buying opportunities as it suits us. Yesterday, however, index futures were easier to short -- and so we did during the weekly tutorial session. For Wednesday night, a mixed technical picture suggests there will be action only for nimble scalpers.  Despite Wednesday's selloff, however, my outlook for overnight is no worse than neutral.

My Predictions for 2012…

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

I hadn't intended to do a "Rick's Picks Predictions for 2012" because I'm skeptical that anyone could get it right. So many things could go wrong next year that it's difficult for me to imagine the world muddling through the month of February, let alone muddling along for another twelve months. Still, I'll give it my best shot in Friday's edition, since I've already skirted the topic in an interview yesterday morning with radio host Al Korelin. It's tempting to try to stand out from the pack, predicting things that few of my guru peers expect. However, I'll go out on a limb with this one here and now:  I expect Apple shares to be trading no higher than they are trading now, and perhaps significantly lower.  See you Friday!

E-Mini groping for traction

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

Mild weakness is present across-the-board Tuesday night, although index futures appear to be getting traction within a few ticks of a target given for the E-Mini S&Ps.  I am less optimistic about gold and silver, however,  and have reiterated my worst-case numbers for the latter in today's touts.