The downtrending ABC pattern highlighted in the chart is so straightforward that we shouldn’t doubt its veracity. However, as is so often the case, a Hidden Pivot support at 1544.70 that is crucial to our analysis lies within a hairs breadth of a structural support that “everyone” will be watching — i.e., the September 26 bottom at 1543.40. Under the circumstances, we should look for a turn in the vicinity of these two numbers, although not from either precisely. Camouflage is the way to go if and when we try to get long speculatively, but we should assume that the magnetic/psychological attraction of the September low outweighs any “Hidden Pivot”effect” near 1544.70. It would be most encouraging if the futures turn from at least 2-3 points above that number and then go on to create a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart.However, my gut feeling is that 1543.40 will need to be breached in order to shake out bulls. Of course, there are no guarantees that once the bulls’ stops have been run, the ensuing rally will get very far. If it goes for only a day or two after having breached so important a low as 2543.40, I would infer that 1445.70 (see inset) is an odds-on bet.
