January 26th, 2015
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Weekly Commentary

The stock market hasn’t been much fun to trade in a while, but that could change today as the broad averages approach some potentially important rally targets of ours. Want to know exactly where these targets lie but don’t subscribe?  Click here for a free trial subscription that will give you access to our proprietary numbers. One of them foresaw a 600-point rally in the Dow that is nearly complete. The other is a bullish target for the E-Mini S&Ps that smacked us in the eye yesterday with its clarity.  There are also two bank stocks whose deft handlers appear to be setting up suckers for the kill. These financial biggies are household names, but because they are in the thick of Europe’s bailout hoax, they are destined to go down with the ship. Under the circumstances, the hysterical, short-squeeze rallies that have driven their shares steeply higher may be ready to seven-out. » Read the full article


Thought for Today

Preparing to Short the E-Mini

by Rick Ackerman on February 8, 2012 3:11 am GMT

I’ve asked veteran camouflageurs who frequent the chat room to guide less-experienced traders if an exceptional opportunity to short the E-Mini S&P should occur when I’m not around.  If our entry trigger gets hit while I’m conducting the weekly tutorial session online between 11 a.m. and noon EST, I’ll make sure the information is disseminated in the chat room at that time.


Rick's Picks for Wednesday
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ESH12 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1350.25)

by Rick Ackerman on February 8, 2012 3:06 am GMT

March E-Mini S&P (ESH12) price chart with targetsI’ve alluded to a key target in today’s commentary, and although merely talking about it has made it one of those high-profile numbers that are probably jinxed from the start, the Hidden Pivot itself is real enough and should provide sufficient stopping power to allow us to get short without risking too much.

Putting aside the promotional hubris of today’s commentary, which the public can access, subscribers should be aware that if the futures reach the 1353.00 target, they’ll be in new recovery territory, trading above April’s important 1344.50 peak. That implies that they will have created a fresh bullish impulse leg on the daily chart, an eventuality that will shorten the odds of our hitting a four-bagger on a bear trade. Still, our goal will be to get aboard without stress, and to simply go with the trade as far as it will take us.  My hunch is that the 1353.00 pivot will be hit overnight Tuesday or Wednesday morning, so I’m depending on the legion of experienced camouflageurs who frequent the chat room to guide rookies if things pan out as we might wish them to. _____ UPDATE (February 9, 11:22 a.m. EST): The futures spiked to 1352.75 about 50 minutes before the opening bell.  Some subscribers evidently got short, and said so in the chat room. However, strictly speaking, it was not possible to do so via camouflage until about 90 minutes later, so I won’t record the trade officially.  Unofficially, though, and for your further guidance, with the futures currently trading around 1346.00, I’d suggest covering three-quarters of the original position for a profit, tying the remaining 25% of it to a stop-loss at 1349.75.  This is not a trade on which we should be swinging for the fences, since the markets are waiting opportunistically for news on Greece – any news at all will suffice — that will conduce yet another short-squeeze and running of the bears.  Concerning the Fat Lady’s aria, keep in mind that there is still an outstanding target at 13085 in the Dow Industrials. _______ FURTHER UPDATE 11:36 a.m. EST): The 15-minute chart is currently bearish, working on an ABC correction (A=1350.25 at 9:45 a.m. EST) that projects to 1337.50. This implies a possible ‘camo’ buying opportunity on any minor abc rally at the 1342.00 midpoint associated with the target. That last number is also my minimum downside objective for the very near-term. ______ AND FINALLY(1:34 p.m. EST): As I noted a short while ago in the chat room, the fact that the futures were unable to correct down to the 1342.00 midpoint augurs new highs, probably today.

BAC – Bank of America (Last:8.05)

by Rick Ackerman on February 8, 2012 3:27 am GMT

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GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:114.36)

by Rick Ackerman on February 8, 2012 3:36 am GMT

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GCJ12 – April Gold (Last:1753.00)

by Rick Ackerman on February 8, 2012 9:08 am GMT

April Gold (GCJ12) price chart with targetsApril Gold did not adequately correct the hourly chart to set up an instant push above last Friday’s 1765.90 peak, but the 30-minute bars will at least get the futures to the 1760.20 ‘D’ target of the lesser pattern shown (see inset).  If it gives way easily, bulls should have little trouble taking out the higher peak soon thereafter.  (Click here to learn more about the Hidden Pivot Method we used to forecast and trade futures and stocks.)

SIH12 – March Silver (Last:34.230)

by Rick Ackerman on February 8, 2012 9:29 am GMT

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$JNK – High-Yield Bond ETF (Last:38.83)

by Rick Ackerman on January 26, 2015 6:10 am GMT

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$CLH15 – March Crude (Last:45.01)

by Rick Ackerman on January 26, 2015 5:34 am GMT

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$ESH15 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:2031.50)

by Rick Ackerman on January 26, 2015 12:03 am GMT

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$GCG15 – February Gold (Last:1294.80)

by Rick Ackerman on January 23, 2015 12:13 am GMT

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DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:176.45)

by Rick Ackerman on January 21, 2015 5:29 am GMT

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$TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:201.29)

by Rick Ackerman on January 15, 2015 6:35 am GMT

Tesla got whacked yesterday, supposedly on word from Elon Musk that the company will not be turning a profit much before 2020. Although this “news” is about as dog-bites-man as it gets, DaBoyz wasted no time repricing the stock with a gap-down opening that brought it down below the 196.19 Hidden Pivot midpoint support shown. This implies not only that more downside awaits to as low as 163.88, but that any rally back up to 196.19 would be an enticing short sale. _______ UPDATE (January 15, 11:39 p.m.):  Yesterday’s fake-out rally got within 44 cents of my 196.19 benchmark before collapsing anew by nearly $6.  If you got short, set a break-even stop for now and please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish tracking guidance. In any event, you should have covered a third to half of any short position above or near the lows. _______ UPDATE (January 25, 10:57 p.m.): You should be out of the stock, since it has rallied as high as 203.50. That was noticeably shy of a 204.38 target, and although the failure to reach the target straightaway hints of underlying weakness, or at least a lack of bullish conviction, we’ll give bulls the benefit of the doubt for now as they try to prove their case.

$HGH15 – March Copper (Last:2.5485)

by Rick Ackerman on January 15, 2015 4:24 am GMT

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AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:112.99)

by Rick Ackerman on January 14, 2015 3:41 am GMT

We shouldn’t doubt that Apple will eventually lift off for points north — most immediately the 116.92 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown, and thence its ‘D’ sibling at 129.20. In the meantime, the presumptive consolidation near 110 has brough only tedium and a more or less predictable series of false starts. The timing of the rally is of some importance, since the stock market as a whole cannot get in bullish gear without the world’s most valuable stock leading the charge.  For our part, let’s get our feet wet with a 0.31 bid for 16 Feb 20 130 calls, day order, contingent on the stock trading 109.00 or higher. If Apple falls below that price lower the bid to 0.26.  Our eventual goal will be to leg into some vertical spreads for cheap, or possibly free. ______ UPDATE: The calls traded for 0.31 on the opening, so I’ll track 16 of them at that price.  Use a stop-loss at 0.24 for now, o-c-o with an order to short 16 Feb 20 135 calls for 0.31. ________UPDATE (January 18, 7:03 p.m.): The stock has looked like hell lately, stopping us out of the calls for 0.24 on the opening Friday. The loss would have totaled $112 plus commissions.  We’ll back away for now, since AAPL now looks primed to fall to 103.58 before bulls get traction. ______ UPDATE (January 25, 11:04 p.m.):  The stock has reversed sharply to the upside, putting the 129.20 rally target flagged above solidly in play.

$SIH15 – March Silver (Last:17.800)

by Rick Ackerman on January 13, 2015 2:09 am GMT

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$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:133.40)

by Rick Ackerman on January 12, 2015 1:30 am GMT

A sale at 2.10 was a lay-up on Friday, since the spread peaked near the opening above 2.30.  With about $2640 in profits already booked, I’ll suggest holding the remaining spreads till expiration. If TLT is trading above 129 at the time, the total profit on the position would be $3840.  From a technical standpoint, the stock’s almost relentless strength is surprising, even to me. In retrospect, it vindicates our strategy — still viable — of buying every minor pullback, since that seems to be as much weakness as we’ll get.  I still expect the 133.16 target shown to exhibit some stopping power, but we shouldn’t be too surprised if buyers just shrug it off. ________ UPDATE (January 16, 12:04 a.m.): Even though I keep repeating that we should expect this vehicle to continue rampaging higher for years and years, I still can’t get used to how easily it blows past ostensibly daunting Hidden Pivot resistances. For what it’s worth, the next lies at 138.60.  Our position is beyond adjustment at this point and seems all but certain to produce a $3840 gain. _______ UPDATE (January 21, 8:24 p.m.):  Yesterday’s selloff was the most vicious we’ve seen in months, but it had no impact whatsoever on the 138.60 target noted above.  The rather large profit from our spread is safe in any case and will remain so unless Armageddon intervenes.

+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.4410)

by Rick Ackerman on December 10, 2014 3:16 am GMT

I first recommended this stock in early September after being very impressed with a presentation by its CEO, Atul Sabharwal. The company provides mobile marketing solutions to a growing list of clients that includes Wal-Mart, ESPN, Lexus, Taco Bell, Target, Johnson & Johnson and Minute Maid.  Snipp’s shares are listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX: SPN) and on the OTC in the U.S. (symbol: SNIPF), but yesterday it filed with the SEC for an exchange listing in the U.S.  From a technical standpoint, SNIPF looks to be basing for a move to as high as 0.4385. First, though, it would need to trip a buy signal at 0.2878, then to clear the 0.3380 midpoint pivot (see inset).  The company continues to win new business at a rapid clip, and that’s why I expect the earnings report due out November 15 to be strong. Full disclosure: I hold shares and warrants in this company. _______ UPDATE (November 13, 10:49 a.m. EST): Two days ahead of the earnings report, the stock has taken quite a leap, with an opening bar high today at 0.38 that was 36% above yesterday’s close. This means the 0.4385 target flagged above is well in play.  _______ UPDATE (6:49 p.m.): The stock took a leap Thursday back up to the midpoint pivot at 0.3380 associated with the 0.4385 target. Regarding earnings, they will be out later than expected, in line with the Canadian deadline for filing. Stay tuned _______ UPDATE (November 17):  Snipp has reported 252% earnings growth for Q3. Click here for the company’s latest filing. _______ UPDATE (December 5, 10:13 a.m.): Zounds!  The stock has popped to 0.40, quadrupling in the eight months since I first recommended it. My immediate target is 0.4356, but SNIPF will need some rest if and when it gets there. _______ UPDATE (December 9): Bulls are apt to be a little winded after the recent push to 0.4314, less than a penny shy of the target shown. We’ll give the stock time to consolidate for the next thrust. ______ UPDATE (December 10, 6:12 p.m.): With the broad averages plummeting yesterday, Snipp bucked the tide, hitting a new all-time high at 44.10. This opens a path over the near term to 0.4906, or perhaps 0.5193 if any higher. ______ UPDATE (January 5): The stock vaulted to 0.59 Friday on volume 250% of a daily average of about 400,000 shares. _______ UPDATE (January 18, 9:57 p.m.): SNIPF got hammered at its recent high of 0.60, with more than a million shares changing hands near the top. Volume on the pullback has been relatively light, however, and I expect buyers to turn the old high into support once they push past the old high in the months ahead. The company continues to win new business with an impressive and rapidly growing list of blue-chip clients. For a summary of client names, check out their logos by clicking here.


This Just In... for Wednesday

Something for Your Sweetheart…

by Rick Ackerman on February 8, 2012 12:01 am GMT

Romance your sweetie on Valentine’s Day with the songs of  Sinatra.  One of my oldest friends, Rick Apt, runs the best Old Blue Eyes memorabilia-and-music site on the web. For an earful — and some terrific February 14th specials — click here.


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