The stock market hasn’t been much fun to trade in a while, but that could change today as the broad averages approach some potentially important rally targets of ours. Want to know exactly where these targets lie but don’t subscribe? Click here for a free trial subscription that will give you access to our proprietary numbers. One of them foresaw a 600-point rally in the Dow that is nearly complete. The other is a bullish target for the E-Mini S&Ps that smacked us in the eye yesterday with its clarity. There are also two bank stocks whose deft handlers appear to be setting up suckers for the kill. These financial biggies are household names, but because they are in the thick of Europe’s bailout hoax, they are destined to go down with the ship. Under the circumstances, the hysterical, short-squeeze rallies that have driven their shares steeply higher may be ready to seven-out. » Read the full article
I’ve asked veteran camouflageurs who frequent the chat room to guide less-experienced traders if an exceptional opportunity to short the E-Mini S&P should occur when I’m not around. If our entry trigger gets hit while I’m conducting the weekly tutorial session online between 11 a.m. and noon EST, I’ll make sure the information is disseminated in the chat room at that time.
I’ve alluded to a key target in today’s commentary, and although merely talking about it has made it one of those high-profile numbers that are probably jinxed from the start, the Hidden Pivot itself is real enough and should provide sufficient stopping power to allow us to get short without risking too much.
Putting aside the promotional hubris of today’s commentary, which the public can access, subscribers should be aware that if the futures reach the 1353.00 target, they’ll be in new recovery territory, trading above April’s important 1344.50 peak. That implies that they will have created a fresh bullish impulse leg on the daily chart, an eventuality that will shorten the odds of our hitting a four-bagger on a bear trade. Still, our goal will be to get aboard without stress, and to simply go with the trade as far as it will take us. My hunch is that the 1353.00 pivot will be hit overnight Tuesday or Wednesday morning, so I’m depending on the legion of experienced camouflageurs who frequent the chat room to guide rookies if things pan out as we might wish them to. _____ UPDATE (February 9, 11:22 a.m. EST): The futures spiked to 1352.75 about 50 minutes before the opening bell. Some subscribers evidently got short, and said so in the chat room. However, strictly speaking, it was not possible to do so via camouflage until about 90 minutes later, so I won’t record the trade officially. Unofficially, though, and for your further guidance, with the futures currently trading around 1346.00, I’d suggest covering three-quarters of the original position for a profit, tying the remaining 25% of it to a stop-loss at 1349.75. This is not a trade on which we should be swinging for the fences, since the markets are waiting opportunistically for news on Greece – any news at all will suffice — that will conduce yet another short-squeeze and running of the bears. Concerning the Fat Lady’s aria, keep in mind that there is still an outstanding target at 13085 in the Dow Industrials. _______ FURTHER UPDATE 11:36 a.m. EST): The 15-minute chart is currently bearish, working on an ABC correction (A=1350.25 at 9:45 a.m. EST) that projects to 1337.50. This implies a possible ‘camo’ buying opportunity on any minor abc rally at the 1342.00 midpoint associated with the target. That last number is also my minimum downside objective for the very near-term. ______ AND FINALLY… (1:34 p.m. EST): As I noted a short while ago in the chat room, the fact that the futures were unable to correct down to the 1342.00 midpoint augurs new highs, probably today.
April Gold did not adequately correct the hourly chart to set up an instant push above last Friday’s 1765.90 peak, but the 30-minute bars will at least get the futures to the 1760.20 ‘D’ target of the lesser pattern shown (see inset). If it gives way easily, bulls should have little trouble taking out the higher peak soon thereafter. (Click here to learn more about the Hidden Pivot Method we used to forecast and trade futures and stocks.)
More downside over the near-term to at least 15.865 (see inset) looks very likely, so traders should position from the short side. The opportunity may be past by morning, but night owls can use an entry trigger on the lesser charts (i.e., 5-minute bar or less) to get aboard. I’ve highlighted the relevant ABC pattern, which appears at the rightmost edge of the chart.
Apple’s gap yesterday through the 100.41 midpoint resistance (see inset) strongly implies that its D sibling at 105.64 will be reached. Although a pullback to the midpoint should be treated as a belated buying opportunity, I wouldn’t suggest chasing the stock higher. That said, the four labeled peaks are tailor-made for the Hidden Pivot trader who can employ the ‘camouflage’ technique for getting long. If you understand why, you should go for it! _______ UPDATE (8:13 p.m.): The broad averages pulled Apple back down to earth yesterday when the stock tried to go opposite weakness that surfaced around mid-session. This runs flatly counter to my speculative idea that AAPL might pull the broad averages higher. That’s still possible, since yesterday’s 104.11 peak fell 53 cents of a rally target that remains valid in theory. However, we’ll eschew speculation for now and simply watch to see whether the 102.44 Hidden Pivot support holds (see inset, a new chart). _______ UPDATE (October 23, 1:59 p.m.): Apple has rebounded sharply today, off a 102.90 correction low to a so-far high of 105.05 that’s 59 cents shy of our target. Most longs should have been exited by now. ______ UPDATE (October 27, 8:07 p.m.): Friday’s high at 105.49 came within 0.15 of the target flagged above. Bulls can continue to hold small long positions for a swing at the fences, but I’d suggest tying your shares to a stop-loss based on a downtrending impulse leg on the 15-minute chart. Currently, that would imply stopping yourself out if an uncorrected fall touches 104.52. _______ UPDATE (October 28, 8:44 p.m.): Still long? Be alert at 107.08, a Hidden Pivot target that looks all but certain to be reached but which could stop the rally cold. You should tighten your trailing stop there in any case. ______ UPDATE (October 29, 9:25 p.m.): The rally has shredded some challenging Hidden Pivots, but let’s see if it can bully its way past the 109.07 target shown. In any case, it is my minimum upside objective for the near term.