Tuesday, February 14, 2012

No Doubting Greece’s Sincerity

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

With Athens streets engulfed in flames, there is no doubting the sincerity of Greece's austerity pledge. Nor can we underestimate how dire the country's financial crisis will become if the bailout money does not arrive soon.  We know this is so because even socialists in Greece's parliament are supporting the deal with Europe's bankers.  Try a free trial to Rick's Picks by clicking here.

GCJ12 – April Gold (Last:1723.50)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

When the music stopped yesterday, the futures were in the throes of a tiresome correction that could go as low as 1713.00. The fact that the downtrend slightly pierced the 1721.40 midpoint associated with that Hidden Pivot support augurs more weakness, presumably minor, over the near term. Tightly stopped bottom-fishing is advised at the lower number, especially if you are able to use a stop-loss, camo-style, of less than 0.80.

HUI – Gold Bugs Index (Last:521.51)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Someone mentioned in the forum that recent lows had precisely caught a midpoint support near  519 that was flagged in the HUI video below. While this may be true, the pivot looks mighty shaky at the moment, and if it gives way the Gold Bugs Index would be vulnerable to a further fall to at least 507.82, or perhaps 504.27 if any lower. That said, the very first place a bull could look for a 'camo' boarding opportunity would come on an A-B pullback from just above the 522.22 look-to-the-left peak shown.  This one is quite subtle -- but subtlety, as you know, is the source of many of our best trading opportunities. _______ UPDATE (February 20):  The HUI has made a tentative bottom at 505.07

CLH12 – March Crude (Last:100.62)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Earlier, I'd suggested keeping a close eye on NYMEX crude, since price action in the futures is capable of alerting us in advance to the outbreak of war in the Middle East. The March contract has been creeping higher for the last week or so and settled above $100 a barrel yesterday, but it'll take more than that to hint of imminent panic. Specifically, we should use the 105.80 'external' peak shown as a bullish tripwire.  Anything less is likely to be just noise, although it would take but a 35-cent rally from current levels to turn the hourly chart bullish. It is already indicating 106.39 if and when the futures close for two consecutive days above 100.92, a Hidden Pivot midpoint

ESH12 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1346.00)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Come tomorrow, the 1353.00 pivot will have held for a week, hinting that the short-covering that has been driving stocks from one plateau to the next is not of the rampaging variety; rather, it is of the quietly psychotic variety, premeditating each new leap on the basis of whatever the latest, fabricated GDP/payroll numbers and "good" news from Europe will allow. Absent any truly horrifying geopolitical news -- and I'm not sure that even that would restrain buyers -- we should expect the futures to break out shortly and head for the 1362.50 Hidden Pivot noted here earlier.  Traders can test the water near that price with a tightly managed short, but camouflage is advised because of the rally pattern's less-than-stellar pedigree.  Want to learn how to nail price reversals like a pro?  You can learn to do it in as little as six weeks. Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar and receive a $50 discount.

Why America’s Bailout Won’t Look Like Greece’s

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

Americans can take comfort in the likelihood that the showdown between mortgage lenders and homeowners will not resemble Greece’s battle-to-the-death with its creditors. In the U.S., the banks are slowly losing ground to a populist, election-year tide that eventually will force lenders to accept a moratorium on mortgage debt for tens of millions of homeowners. In the rapidly escalating legal battle to bring this about, last week’s $25 billion settlement between the banks and the U.S. did not settle much of anything, since the banks in theory can still be sued into oblivion by aggrieved homeowners. The plaintiffs will be claiming in effect and with a straight face that they got in over their heads because lenders forced them to borrow more than they could repay. Who would have imagined just a decade ago that an army of reckless borrowers would seek the protection of the courts under the remorseless deadbeat’s battle flag “Kick me, beat me, make me write bad checks”?  That’s what it’s come down to, evidently, and woe to any bank that asks the court for help in turning a family out onto the street. The five big banks that signed onto the deal are undoubtedly running scared, since the legal latitude afforded those who could conceivably claim “questionable lending practices” has been widened to include just about anyone who lives in a home – including, presumably, tens of millions more homeowners who  are not yet underwater but eventually will be. Keep in mind that the costs of the yet-to-be-unveiled Homeowner Bailout Act of 2014 have already been socialized, since the GSEs have been originating 90% of all new mortgage loans. Contrast this with the increasingly dire situation in Greece, where lenders, backed by a docile and ignorant press, are still able to pretend that they have