Earlier, I’d suggested keeping a close eye on NYMEX crude, since price action in the futures is capable of alerting us in advance to the outbreak of war in the Middle East. The March contract has been creeping higher for the last week or so and settled above $100 a barrel yesterday, but it’ll take more than that to hint of imminent panic. Specifically, we should use the 105.80 ‘external’ peak shown as a bullish tripwire. Anything less is likely to be just noise, although it would take but a 35-cent rally from current levels to turn the hourly chart bullish. It is already indicating 106.39 if and when the futures close for two consecutive days above 100.92, a Hidden Pivot midpoint
