Thursday, February 23, 2012

Crude oil prices are at an extremely crucial threshold, since a move touching 107, basis the NYMEX April futures, would imply a very powerful breakout is at hand. Since this could signal a heightened threat of war in the Middle East, we'll be keeping a very close watch in the days ahead.

It's been a long while since we looked in on this stock, but its ballistic rally of late warrants a timely update.  While Cameco's long dirge appears, finally, to have ended, the stock's ability to hurdle a series of 'external' peaks tracing back nearly a year can tell us how far it might travel relative to the bull market peak near 45 from last February. For now, we'll judge buyers' mettle according to how well they handle the 27.56 Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown. The stock is a cinch to get there, but it will need to get past the resistance within no more than a day or two of first touching it before we infer that there is power enough to drive the rally significantly higher in the months ahead. Would you like to learn how we use the 'camouflage' trading technique to significantly reduce entry risk? Click here for details.

Yesterday's rally missed creating a fresh impulse leg on the daily chart by just three cents, but bulls could easily remedy the shortfall soon with a push exceeding the 34.520 peak recorded on February 8. Notice that it would require little more than that to take on three more peaks from November, above which the bad guys would have no pockets of supply to help them suppress Silver's increasingly natural buoyancy.  More immediately, a Hidden Pivot at 35.635 beckons -- an odds-on shot now with the p midpoint at 34.140 midpoint already breached. _______ UPDATE (2:52 p.m. EST):  Today's very powerful, $1.35 rally came within 2.5 cents of the target flagged above, so it should be considered fulfilled. A 27-cent pullback has ensued. The slight undershoot of 35.635 suggests some consolidation -- perhaps a day's worth -- will be needed to set up the next big push. If oil keeps rocketing higher, however, Silver will likely be pounding higher sooner.

A 1787.70 rally target identified here in an update yesterday remains our minimum upside objective for now, but bulls would end the week on a rampage if they push the rally past the two additional 'external' peaks shown in the chart.  There are others as well dating back to September, and they have the potential to keep us confidently informed of buyers' intentions as Gold works its way higher.  Most immediately, any progress today above 1787.70 would portend additional upside to at least 1820.10, a Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart. ______ UPDATE (10:57 a.m. EST):  Gold futures are caught up in an eddy of violence and stupidity this morning, even if that has not diminished their predictability an iota. The high, before the futures went into a $25 up-down--up conniption, was 1786.50, just shy of the target given above. And ow, at this very moment, they have rocketed off a 1774.20 low to a new so-far intraday high at -- suh-prise, suh-prise -- 1787.50.

Kinda scary when DaBoyz can only extort a measly ten-minute rally from the latest resurrection of Greece.  That's how long the short-covering frenzy lasted on Monday night when markets opened in holiday-eve trading.  The choppy selloff since has produced a forest of corrective ABC patterns, but the one I'll suggest using for purposes of predicting where it might end is shown in the inset. It sports a 'D' target at 1348.00, a hidden support so beautifully isolated that you can try bottom-fishing with a 1348.25 bid, stop 1347.50.  Camouflage is preferred, as usual, but this gambit is the first I've seen in a while that can be attempted the way we used to do it before 'camo' was invented. _______ UPDATE (3:07 p.m. EST): The futures dipped no lower than 1350.25 during off-hours trading, denying us a boarding opportunity if a straight bid was used. However, if you'd used camouflage to get in, a good opportunity arrived on the one-minute chart at around 9:14 a.m. EST, when a minor, uptrending ABC tripped an entry signal at 1353.50. Check it out if you are skeptical that even a novice Pivoteer could not have made money on this one.