Tuesday, September 11, 2012

The euro's dead-cat bounce may be near an end, given that the Dollar Index is approaching a Hidden Pivot support at 79.75 (or 79.12 if any lower) that looks likely to produce a strong bounce.  The relevant pattern is shown in the chart, and I'd encouraged traders to leverage it with any vehicle that correlates to an uptrending dollar. Note that if DXY breaches the first target, a second not far below it would be in play.

Check out today's December T-Bond tout, since it could hold the key to the global financial picture in the months ahead. After breaking down in mid-August, T-Bonds rallied sharply but have since given back about half of the gain.  If last week's low fails to hold, it would add to the evidence that a 30-year bull market has ended.  Alternatively, a spirited rally from current levels would suggest that bulls are developing thrust for a last hurrah.  Click here for a free trial subscription.

From a Hidden Pivot perspective, this vehicle has been outperforming GDXJ recently, suggesting institutional enthusiasm for larger-cap mining stocks is heating up.  Notice that the apex of last week's surge slightly exceeded  a key peak at 484.93 recorded back in April. This not only refreshed the bullish impulsiveness of the daily chart, it did so by way of a 10% rally that required no b-c 'breathers'.  We'll attempt to board the next leg up using a pattern similar to the one shown in the chart.  If you want to be notified in real time of any opportunities that may arise, please sign up for E-Mail Notifications on your My Account page.

T-Bond futures are at key threshold after breaking down in mid-August. A strong rally has ensued, creating a 'duel' on the daily chart between bulls and bears that currently favors the latter. That would change, however, if buyers get traction at or above the 148^03 midpoint support shown in the chart.  This may be occurring now, but it would take a further rally above  early August's 153^05 peak to make it official.  Traders can use camouflage to get long by leveraging a pullback from 1-3 ticks above  149^28.  An external peak at that price can be found on the 10-minute chart (September 7, 1:20 p.m.  EDT).  _______ UPDATE (11:22 a.m. EDT):  The futures have broken down this morning with a decisive breach of the 148^03 Hidden Pivot support flagged above. This strengthens the evidence that a 30-year bull market has ended.  Next stop below:  144^15.

The two successive leaps that occurred, respectively, last Thursday and Friday conspicuously failed to get past the important 'external' peak at 23.93 shown in the chart. This is not bearish per se, but it suggests that GDXJ's upward trajectory is likely to flatten somewhat in the weeks ahead.  The good news is that GDXJ has been building a base since May that looks well capable of supporting a move to $30 and above. We'll look to leverage it on a pullback from above 23.93, so stay tuned.  If you'd like to be notified of any trading opportunities in real time via an e-mail alert, you should check the 'E-Mail Notifications' box on your My Account page. _______ UPDATE (September 14, 3:20 a.m.):  Yesterday's strong surge ripped through 23.93 with such ease that the 25.84 target shown in the refreshed chart should be viewed as a done deal. Look for buyers to blow past the 24.15 midpoint this morning, shortening the odds of a move to the target.  ______ UPDATE (September 24): Friday's burst hit 25.67 -- close enough to our target to consider it fulfilled.  It should contain the move for at least a few days -- but if not, shorts had better dive for cover. _______ UPDATE (October 2, 2:20 a.m. EDT):

Stocks looked somewhat subdued at week’s end, but this was to be expected, given the downbeat economic news.  Turns out the U.S. economy generated a paltry 96,000 new jobs in August while unemployment fell to 8.1% for the worst possible reason.  In fact, the number fell because so many who are jobless have given up looking for work. The fact that the Dow Industrials managed to hold onto Thursday’s 250-point gain despite this suggests that bull traders will be out in force Monday morning, attempting to leverage the brazen falsehoods that were trumpeted from the podium in Charlotte. Obama has been able to tell sensational lies about the performance of the U.S. economy simply because a left-tilting press is doing its loyal and desperate best to get him re-elected.  Americans are not fooled, though, and that is why we expect the incumbent to get trounced in November, notwithstanding Gallup polls and other damned statistical lies to the contrary. We’ve tuned all of it out and will take the odds. As far as we’re concerned, the polls are either flat-out wrong or misleading, and campaign coverage that would have us believe Romney and Obama are running neck-in-neck is delusional.  Romney is a weak candidate, to be sure, but he is running against a man who has not earned anyone’s trust, let alone four more years in office. Even liberals and progressives are saying that, by the way.  We were surprised to hear it last week from an old friend, a self-described Progressive who has never spoken a kind word about a Republican in the six decades we’ve known him. America’s Shame Ordinarily, we would rate it a plus for the markets that a president who views America’s past with shame, and whose obsessive political goal is to make us pay the