Wednesday, October 17, 2012

CLX12 – November Crude Oil (Last:92.51)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Oil is trading nearly exactly where it was four years ago, notwithstanding some intervening price swings that jibed from $8o to $120 a few times.  What this implies is that energy-sector hedges against a dollar in increasingly promiscuous supply have been roughly offset by a weak global economy that has been unable to get off the tarmac since the Great Financial Crash of 2007-08.  Keep this in mind the next time crude moves $10 or $15 up or down, since it will very likely be nothing more than noise. For the record, please note that my long-term bias remains bearish, since I expect the industrial world's slide into recession to deepen in the years ahead.

SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:37.81)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The stock has held up better than the metal recently, but something's got to give.  Since SLW looks more bullish than Comex Silver does bearish, my bias is positive for the time being, with a focus on the 42.77 rally target of the pattern shown.  It's sibling 'p' midpoint at 40.48 has yet to be achieved, but I'd want to see two consecutive daily closes above it before I infer that 42.77 is a done deal.  Meanwhile, we hold eight December 40-45 call spreads without risk, having legged into them at zero cost.   If SLW is trading above $40 come December 21, the position can produce a gain of as much as $4000.

Belkin Sees Stocks Plunging by 40%

– Posted in: Free Links Rick's Picks

Here's the always astute financial consultant Michael Belkin with a prediction that stocks will plunge by 40% next year.  I met Michael years ago when we were hired by an Alaskan mining company, Ardic Explorations, to scare up some business at investor events in, respectively, New York and Boston.  He and I had fallen out of touch, but he recently turned up at the Big Picture Conference in NYC, making quite an impression on our Boulder friend and financial advisor Doug Behnfield.  Click here for the video link.