Oil is trading nearly exactly where it was four years ago, notwithstanding some intervening price swings that jibed from $8o to $120 a few times. What this implies is that energy-sector hedges against a dollar in increasingly promiscuous supply have been roughly offset by a weak global economy that has been unable to get off the tarmac since the Great Financial Crash of 2007-08. Keep this in mind the next time crude moves $10 or $15 up or down, since it will very likely be nothing more than noise. For the record, please note that my long-term bias remains bearish, since I expect the industrial world’s slide into recession to deepen in the years ahead.
