Tuesday, December 11, 2012

DIA Closing on Our Rally Target

– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks

There are many updates for today, including tradable details for anyone interested in the DIA short we've waited so patiently for. If our rally target is hit, it would fulfill a bullish forecasts made nearly two weeks ago when DIA was trading nearly three points lower.  (Click here for a free peek at the target.)

DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:132.87)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The 132.54 target (corrected by 0.03 points) still looks very short-able (see inset).  Camouflageurs should guard against a downturn from somewhere below that number, but officially we'll short it by buying four January 128 puts if and when DIA gets within 0.08 points of the target. The options would be a good buy for around 0.90, but you can pay as much as 1.00 for them (with DIA at or very near 132.54) if that's where they happen to be offered.  Stop yourself out if the puts trade for 0.25 less than you paid for them.  (Note: If any camouflageurs get short from an intraday high that falls shy of 132.46, please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance.) _______ UPDATE: With DIA on its way to an intraday high at 133.12, subscribers reported paying as little as 0.94 for the puts. As is customary, however, I will use the worst price reported, 1.00, as our cost basis.  My intention is to spread off our risk by shorting puts of a lower strike against those we own. This will of course work out best for us if DIA is falling. For now, however, do nothing further.

PCLN – Priceline (Last:529.60)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

And now, Priceline has joined the list of high-fliers that have gotten sacked as portfolio managers limp toward the goal line. Surely the Masters of the Universe could not have wanted December to turn out this way?  One suspects they had little choice, however; for not only was there insufficient buying power to goose the broad averages into year's end, there weren't even enough bidders to hold stocks at cruising altitude.  Under the circumstances, it's logical for DaBoyz to have allowed some of their bread-and-butter stocks, most painfully Apple, to fall to levels where shares can be more comfortably accumulated.  Even better for them, once sellers are either depleted or on holiday, it will be relatively easy to recoup the losses in mere hours via short-squeezes that are a reliable feature of the December trading calendar. From a technical standpoint, PCLN would become a moderately fetching buy at 617.79, the midpoint pivot (on the 30-minute chart) of A=661.86 (12/07 at 2 p.m. EST); B=626.53 (10 a.m. on 12/10).  That number should also serve as a minimum downside objective for this dive. _______ UPDATE (December 14, 2:30 a.m. EST):  Priceline took a $6 bounce, its only real rally on an ugly day, from 617.72 -- just seven cents from the Hidden Pivot target given above.  No trades were reported in the chat room, so I will not be providing a tracking position.  However, if you're interested in trading the stock, it is now an odds-on bet to fall to exactly 584.55. (60m, A=672.95, B=623.10). The midpoint pivot associated with that price is 609.47, so be prepared for a struggle at that price between bulls and bears.

Faith and the Endless Debate

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

[The guest commentary below introduces James Tolard, an old and dear friend as well as an exceptionally talented commodity trader. Jim’s style is to surf the big trends, taking perhaps just two or three new positions over the course of a year. Appearing relaxed and effortless is his great gift, and this quality is there in spades whether he’s managing a large soybean position, driving a golf ball 300 yards or cooking coq au vin for a dozen dinner guests. Jim lives in a secluded village, but I’ve coaxed him out of semi-retirement to write occasionally on any subject he chooses.  In the essay below, well off the beaten path for Rick’s Picks readers, he ponders certain epistemological questions that will necessarily remain unanswered.  RA] The idea of a 6,000-year-old earth is summoned time and again as if to prove that responsible adults do not hold elective office except as reactionaries.  We hear shrill voices trying to shout down superstition. And yes, I am all for this as long as the shouting is not by way of kangaroo courts, gulags, and surveillance.  But what is at issue? The Old Testament, or Torah, contains enough age references to the patriarchs to imply that the first man came into mortality, driven from the Garden of Eden, about six-thousand years ago. The Jewish calendar proceeds from this event and is currently at 5773. But the modern calendar, a Roman invention, didn’t come into being until what is now 42 A.D. So, back to the question of the age of things. The principal arguments all miss thepoint, which is that the enemies of revealed knowledge refuse to tolerate a conflict with cosmology and geology.  Persons of faith, for their part, refuse to budge from their belief that the Scriptures contain revealed knowledge. It is