From the obvious pattern that hits the eye when you look at Goldman's daily chart (see inset), I've culled a less obvious one that looks like it could produce a shortable top. The Hidden Pivot target where we'll attempt to do so lies at 143.35, and I'll suggest buying four February 140 puts if the stock should get within 15 cents of the target. To manage the risk of this trade initially, I'll suggest ditching the position if the puts trade for 25 cents less than you paid for them. In theory this will limit a loss to about $100. I am recommending this because if the intuitively obvious pattern plays out rather than the somewhat idiosyncratic one that has seized my fancy, the stock will be on its way to a minimum 149.42 (which will be shortable too, by the way). _______ UPDATE (1:32 p.m. EST): We were stopped out, with subscribers reporting actual losses on the trade ranging from $100 to $125. The stock is now on its way to the even more promising top at 149.42 mentioned above. We'll want to short there more aggressively than we did this time, so be ready for further instructions.
Thursday, January 17, 2013
AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:506.09)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksDaBoyz had bears by the cahones from the opening bar, short-squeezing this erstwhile dog for nearly $25 at its peak. The chart (see inset) shows that the trampoline bounce slightly exceeded the 508.32 midpoint pivot associated with a 461.64 downside target that can continue to serve as our minimum objective for AAPL's bear market. A bounce back up to p is usually a good place to get short if you missed an earlier opportunity, but in this case I'd suggest doing so only via camouflage, since the stock is now bullishly impulsive on the lesser charts and may become even more ferociously so as DaBoyz unwind put positions ahead of Friday's option expiration.
We’ll Sit Out the Short Squeeze in Apple
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksYesterday's session amounted to a tiresome holding pattern for most of the issues we track. Perhaps bulls were discombobulated by the unaccustomed spectacle of Apple shares getting viciously goosed by DaBoyz? My hunch is that it's distribution, as today's AAPL tout makes clear. The stock is shortable nonetheless, having rallied back to an important Hidden Pivot that used to be support, but only if you really know what you're doing. Want to learn how to really know what you're doing? Click here to enter the magical world of Hidden Pivots and 'camouflage' trading.
Anatomy of a Sweeeeet E-Mini S&P Trade
– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 FreeA trading “tout” disseminated to subscribers the night before caught the exact low in the E-Mini S&Ps Tuesday morning, allowing subscribers to climb aboard for a ride worth 12 points so far. That equates to a theoretical gain of $600 per contract. The graphic below (click on it to sharpen and enlarge the image) shows not only the original recommendation as it appeared on the home page late Monday night, but intraday updates that went out to subscribers as Tuesday’s session evolved. The purpose of the updates was to provide further guidance to subscribers who had reported doing the trade. Rick’s Picks shuns P&L claims, by the way, since they rarely seem to match the results subscribers achieve following the advice of some guru. Our policy is to provide “tracking guidance” for a recommended trade, but only if at least two subscribers report having filled the order. And if their prices differ, we use the worst price reported as our theoretical cost basis for the position. In the case of the E-Mini recommendation, several subscribers weighed in with fills shortly after the index futures touched 1456.50, the number highlighted above in brown. Technical jargon aside, and as you can see for yourself, the advice was pretty straightforward: Take a speculative stake if the futures fall to 1456.50. The likelihood that this would indeed occur was signaled the night before when the futures slightly exceeded the target’s midpoint “sibling,” labeled as a red “p” in the chart immediately below. Typically, we advise taking a small partial profit early in a trade if the opportunity should arise. The relaxation this brings is the best tool we’ve found to help a trader manage the risk of a trade from that point forward. In the trade detailed above, based on the two guidance alerts
