November 1st, 2014
Published Daily

Economy Haunted by ‘Ghost of Inflation Past’

by Rick Ackerman on February 13, 2013 12:01 am GMT · 40 comments

[Fifty years of inflation has been tough on households, but for millions of college grads unable to find work paying more than $10 an hour, it can be defeating. In the guest essay below, Rick’s Picks forum regular John Skerencack (aka John Jay) explains how an  economic tragedy that has trapped young people took shape without anyone much noticing. Until now. RA]

A good way to work a scam is to put a microscope on a short-term trend and pretend it is a reversal of the main trend. “Global Warming,” for example. About 15,000 years ago there was a sheet of ice 5,000 feet thick over New England. As the ice age ended it melted away, and as a result sea levels rose about 390 feet. So you can say with confidence, the long-term trend is melting ice, and rising sea levels. All this happened without any human input at all — a mile of ice melts, sea levels rise 390 feet. Now, in the past 140 years, more ice has melted, and sea levels have risen about a foot.

OMG! Quick, let’s create a global tax expressed through carbon credits to stop it before it gets out of hand and we all drown! Al Gore and the CME have a plan to save us! Cue the one minute chart of sea level rise! You get the picture? There is no new trend of rising sea levels, just the last gasp of the main trend, most likely.

Rising Seas = Inflation

Turning to the “Dismal Science,” the rising sea levels of the past 50 years or so is Inflation. So ceteris paribus, let 50 years be equal to the 15,000 years of melting ice and rising sea levels. For the sake of argument assume the price of everything has gone up 1,000% since 1963. Further assume that wages over the same time have gone up 400% These are very rough numbers, but brevity is essential to keep your attention, and I am excluding government workers who are getting raises unknown in the private sector. And I am assuming the wages are for an average guy or gal, not an MD or physicist. So I won’t even bring up college tuition increases in the past 50 years.

So a young guy or gal in 1963 would be making $5,000 a year and paying $20,000 for a nice house and $2,000 for a nice car. And a postage stamp was 5 cents. I am using $5,000 a year because I remember as a freshman in high school a teacher telling me he was leaving teaching to sell insurance because he could not make it on $5,000 a year. In 2013 a young guy or gal is making $20,000 a year, and a house is $200,000 and a car is $20,000. And a postage stamp is 46 cents. (And no one is quitting a teacher’s job to sell insurance:  see “Government Workers” above.)

Wages Failed to Keep Up

Can you see the problem the young people are facing? They are haunted by the “Ghost of Inflation Past” because they are living in an economy ravaged by 50 years of inflation, in an economy of $10 an hour jobs thanks to open borders and off shored jobs. Wages never kept up with inflation in the private sector, not even close. So when Ben says Inflation is contained at 2%, he is pointing to a one-minute chart where gas prices just went down 20 cents gallon.

Don’t believe it. Believe the rattling chains, and chilling moans of the Ghost of Inflation Past!

Unquestionably, there is progress. The average American now pays twice as much in taxes as he formerly got in wages.” H.L. Mencken

***

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{ 40 comments }

bc February 11, 2013 at 2:36 am

OMG! Quick, let’s create a global tax

You got that right. Anyone who thinks climate change is anything but a new tax scheme is a fool. It’s all about the Benjamin’s baby. Welcome to the new normal, same as the old normal. Oh, and things ain’t so great for us physicists either. Great essay BTW.

John Jay February 11, 2013 at 6:40 am

BC,
Inflation update for you.
The price for the premium gasoline I use bottomed at $3.79 a gallon on 12-28-2012.
It is now $4.24 a gallon on 2-10-2013, an increase of $.45 in 6 weeks, or a 12% increase in 6 weeks.
The price for a one gallon jug of Crystal Geyser water is now $1.29 a gallon, up from $.99 just two weeks ago.
That’s a 30% increase in two weeks!
For water.
Yes, you can get that gallon of water or gasoline cheaper shopping around, but I used the same gas station and same grocery store to make a point.
It took a while but I think all the money Ben has been pumping into the system for years is starting to push prices up across the board.
And I know wages have not gone up 30% or even 12% to offset price increases.
Lets see how long Ben can keep a straight face when talking about “Contained Inflation”.

Bobby February 11, 2013 at 2:44 pm

John, may I add that the price of 1 ltr of Coke has gone from .99 to 1.29, the same 30% increase…..fortunately, the price of my 1.75ltr of Ron Rico rum has stayed the same for now.

Buster February 11, 2013 at 11:58 am

Good subject, JJ, & an important one to shine a light on.
I read of a US war vet who froze to death because he couldn’t afford heating, so I suspect that the situation there is similar to the UK, where millions are being squeezed just when things are harder than ever.
Here the Sheeple are told that we’re all in this together & that we must all do our bit!…….(yes! to keep those in positions of power in the manner they’ve become accustomed to!!)

“The REAL reason fuel bills are going through the roof? Crackpot green taxes you’re never even told about”:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2001244/Gas-prices-Fuel-bills-increase-crackpot-green-taxes-youre-told-about.html#axzz2KaAqw484

John Jay February 11, 2013 at 4:13 pm

Buster,
On top of Inflation, we have a system that rewards failure and irresponsible behavior and punishes old fashioned frugality and caution.
Case in point:
I have an attorney friend who has a client that was in foreclosure after not having made a mortgage payment in a year.
The banks response:
We will give you $50k and six months to vacate if the property is not trashed when you finally turn it over to us.
By ignoring non payments and keeping shadow inventory off the market, the banks, with the approval and aid of the Federal Government’s ZIRP policy have created a new reality.
Curiouser and curiouser!
Go ask Alice!

Dave February 11, 2013 at 2:12 pm

Take a moment, 27 minutes, to listen this speech at the National Prayer meeting by Dr. Benjamin Carson, Director Pediatric Neurosurgery at John Hopkins Univ. Born into poverty, he offers inspiration, some fun and actual useful ideas to help towards many issues, financial, educational, … affecting the USA. Some are digs to Obama who is right there listening.

http://lonelyconservative.com/2013/02/video-dr-benjamin-carsons-awesome-national-prayer-speech/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+lonelyconservative%2FbdZb+(The+Lonely+Conservative)

Robert February 11, 2013 at 7:49 pm

I think that quite a few people take Keyenes “In the long term we’re all dead” a little too literally…

They failed (and still fail) to recognize that we never die so long as our legacy is acknowledged by our progeny.

Is Einstein dead? The cumulative benefit of his knowledge pays greater dividends today than when he was alive…

And what about Newton?

Ghandi?

Jefferson?

Adams?

MLK?

Some people SHOULD be dead, and acknowledged by history as being rightly so, and John Maynard Keynes certainly qualifies…

gary leibowitz February 12, 2013 at 12:50 am

Where to start and dissect this article and its analogy with global warming. To suggest that global warming is a natural occurance is like saying adolescent growth is no different in the slums of Detroit or opulent Beverly Hills. Yes the physical similarities are so strinking one must conclude their upbringing is also exactly the same.
There is so much mounting scientific evidence that man-made pollutants are causing accelerated havoc in our earths ability to cope, even the Republican, pro business caucus, is conceding this fact. The known pollutants man has spewed onto the earth since the late 1800’s should make anyone conclude that it will have harmful affects. Do we really need scientific proof? I was on a civil suit case involving 2 cars at an intersection. One car of average weight hit a van and caused that van to move 100 feet onto the other side of the street. When asked to weight the evidence one juror asked why we should assume the car was traveling very fast? Some things are self evident based on the natural law.

Now to inflation. If inflation alone caused economic ruin than no one would be able to buy the luxuries in life. Clearly that is not happening. Even if you assume everyone is getting only 10 dollar an hour, you must also discard low loan rates, investments in a booming stock market these last 4 years, home prices rising again, and lenders lending again. In other words the wealth factor. If inflation was the demise of our economy how can you explain away the 70’s? Surely 40 years later we would all be digging for food in trash cans by now.

I will repeat MY premise to why we are falling way behind. When the government piece of the pie, no matter how it is derived, fall squarely on the rich the rest have to survive from a deminished source. The reason we have survived so long is exactly because of the give-aways, ala social program intrusion. Now if you take THAT away it will have a much worse consequence than the ravages of inflation. It is already being taken away with disbanding of unions, pensions, medical costs, and government “safety net” jobs.

If I am so off on my premise how do you explain away the last 4 years? Corporations can’t make profits without the help of consumer spending. It was being spent as the saving rate rose for the first time in decades. How can we save if inflation caused such devistation these last 4 years? Sorry but so far inflation, while a big drag on the economy, has not derailed it. Thats not to say given the fragile economic recovery we have been having, it will never have an affect.

Finally, since some of you were born before the 70’s, has your life been thrown in turmoil becuase of the huge acceleration of inflation and devalued dollar? No savings?

You can’t look at a problem with myopic vision. You should take off those blinders and see what is already there, even if it means dispelling your hard-core beliefs. Off shore outsourcing for instance, and open borders, make products very cheap here in the U S of A. Never a one-sided outcome. If it were we would already be divided into massive slums against 100 foot Trump Tower high risers.

John Jay February 12, 2013 at 6:04 am

Gary,
You are confusing the “Global Warming” scam with man’s pollution.
They are two very different issues.
The end of the last Ice Age 15,000 years ago had nothing to do with any influence by humans.
All 5,000 feet of ice that melted along with the 390 foot rise in sea levels was just another cycle in many this earth has seen.
The cycle before the current one saw sea levels rise about another 40 feet higher than where they are right now.

Polluted oceans and over fishing are an entirely different matter.
That is a very real threat, microscopic plastic is all over the ocean, and that along with a collapsing oceanic food chain is real threat to the phytoplankton that create most of our oxygen.
To go from 1 billion to 7 billion people in 200 years is the pollution/ over fishing cause.
All the ice that melted 15,000 years ago had no relation to humanity.
The pollution problem certainly does.

The reason people in the USA are not starving to death because of Inflation in food prices is because of several factors unique to our situation.

1) We are blessed with lots of very productive farmland and farmers so food here has always been cheap and plentiful compared to say Japan.
Japan has limited farmland and as a result they are part of the over fishing problem mentioned above.
We do not need to import expensive food.

2) We have debt fueled Government supports for everything, food, housing, disaster relief, college education.
All of that is enabled by our Reserve Currency status.
Every week there is another disaster and the Government hands out money we don’t have to rebuild. Many parts of this country would resemble Haiti if it was not for the money for nothing mentality our Reserve Currency status affords us.

2) In spite of that Inflation is beginning to bite the average consumer more each day. Even people earning a good living are living paycheck to paycheck with no financial reserve.

3)The housing market is recovering because the Government allowed insolvent banks to ignore non performing loans. Accrual accounting fantasy allowed them to book mortgage payments not being paid as revenue anyway.
People have gone years without paying their mortgage and the banks ignored it and did not foreclose to keep the inventory off the market.
Now thanks to ZIRP and a Fannie/Freddie/FHA monopoly on home financing, prices have stabilized.

4)The number of Americans in the labor force is shrinking, the number of Americans on the dole is almost 50% of our population.

5) The stock/bond market is not the economy by a long shot. Both are supported by ZIRP.
Where would bonds trade at if Ben held one honest Treasury auction?
Yes you can make a lot of money trading but that is micro economics, the macro economic situation is not sustainable with 22 million people employed by some level of Government, all of them producing next to nothing except higher taxes and pension/health care liabilities. I have seen estimates that in another 25 years there will be 100 million Americans on SS or SSDI.
Who will pay for that?

To sum it all up if money creation is all it takes for prosperity, why have anyone work, just send us all a check once a month. We can send pallets of FRNs to Germany for BMWs, to Canada for food and oil, to Japan and China for electronics and bullet trains and we can all party!
Inflation is starting to bite here just give it a chance.
We went from zero to 16 trillion in National Debt in 50 years.
Just as the dosage makes the poison toxic in biology, the money dosage makes the poison toxic in economics.

allen February 12, 2013 at 5:12 pm

This guy summed up global warning.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB0aFPXr4n4

gary leibowitz February 13, 2013 at 3:42 am

I knew this would not be accepted here. The numerous deep ice core samples taken around the world give a snapshot of 100,000 to some 400,000 years ago. While we know there are natural events that cause cyclical warming the data is just too overwhelming to conclude anything but man induced temperature rise over the last century. These samples measure carbon dioxide, methane and other chemicals. Air temperature is also known by studying changes in the isotopic composition of water. The data from a short period starting in the mid-1800’s on is dramatic and exceeds any comparisons from any other period in time.

Just look up the numerous studies and scientific articles. Also look up what the buildup of CO2 does to temperature in any model experiment you can come up with.

You would rather conclude that we have a coincidence in timing where the industrial age happens to fall on the natural cyclical nature of global warming. The dramatic rise at EXACTLY this period is one hell of a coincidence. I guess you believe in long shots.

As for why we are still afloat economically, I keep bringing back the same old argument. It matters not how this government handles or mishandles the “fixes”. It is a known entity. Deal with it. Decide if it will work or not and what are the signs that it is failing. I really enjoyed the argument that housing is a government propped up scheme and 22 million government workers do nothing. I guess people aren’t buying and selling their homes at anywhere near the government stats. I guess if you had no government you would be correct in assuming that 22 million do nothing. You state we live in a welfare state yet those processing this welfare state do nothing? What logic!

Oregon February 14, 2013 at 12:23 am

Now you are really getting carried away Gary. As with most arguments I can assume the truth is somewhere in the middle; with global warming I would say man is having a magnifying effect of a natural cycle. As for inflation, as others have said, it is big and only being somewhat suppressed by smaller packages of lesser quality, being produced by foreigners at unsustainable wages, all of which is not sustainable forever.

As for gov’t employees, you are being naive. It’s not that they don’t do anything, it’s they don’t produce anything. And what they do costs at least 30% more than in the private sector. If there are 22 million gov’t employees, how many private sector jobs and taxes does it take to pay those employees? Seriously, how many?

DJI February 12, 2013 at 1:37 am

Rick – There’s no question man made global warming is a scam. The carbon taxing scheme is an idea hatched by none other than Ken Lay of Enron fame.

Then you have Climate-Gate at the University of E. Anglia where the scientists were clearly manipulating the data. One such “smoking gun” email has a scientist talking to another about “hiding the decline” as in hiding the decline in the temperature drop. It is from this university where most of this man made global warming hysteria comes from and is regurgitated a thousand times as gospel from the media to the dumbed down fluoride drinking masses. When asked if the scientist could provide the raw data before they started manipulating it, they said they already destroyed the data. It’s perfectly normal for scientist to destroy the raw source data.

@gary – this issue is not a Republican or a Democrat issue since both parties are bought and paid for by the same offshore banking cartel and both parties are practically identical on the major issues (pro-war, anti-liberty, and pro-banker).

True- there are real environmental concerns that need to be addressed. But we know the so-called “environmentalist” could care less about the environment. If they really were concerned about the environment they would champion real environmental threats such as GMO’s and the nuclear disaster still ongoing in Fukushima.

Once GMO’s are unleashed into the environment, there is no way to recall them.

If you want to know what is the greatest factor in determining global temperatures, look up and take note of this giant fireball in the sky. That is why when the earth warms due to the sun, so do the other planets in our solar system.

We know the medieval times were much hotter. We have recorded history of fantastic wine grapes grown in the UK where it required much hotter temperatures.

Once you abandon the myopic view of Left vs. Right, you will realize we are on the same team and our common enemy are the offshore bankers.

Tiburon February 12, 2013 at 6:04 am

Gotta concur, generally, DJI, though with one caveat, to wit: –
Apparently it is not a “giant fireball in the sky”, nor a ‘nuclear furnace’ but rather electrical plasma phenomena – an “electric sun”. With concommitant deep effects via complex electro-magnetic, and particle stream effects on our own Earth’s magnetic fields and atmosphere, affecting every element of weather, as well as planetary seismology and numerous other coupled non-linear chaotic interlocking systems in our home here among the stars.
IMHO this is a fact, the implications are for a paradigmic shift in all of the hard (and most of the soft) sciences, and we are in this day witnessing the bleeding edge of our understanding of this overarching revolution in world-view.
http://www.thunderbolts.info
I think John Jay’s metaphor between CAWG and it’s depredations ‘upon all that is holy’ in science (like evidence, observations, and, y’know, FACTS), and “hidden inflation” is extremely appropriate, and like CAWG the truths of the matters are being dragged kicking and squalling into the light (of the mob’s torches and glinting, sharpened pitchforks I expect, notwithstanding ‘Black Swans’).
I believe Rick has said it in the past – expect deflation in all assets we hold of value, and inflation in all we need to live.
Anyway, here’s a link to a 3 minute ‘weather report’ I’ve taken to listening to daily – usually posted by 6:30 AM EST. You might enjoy it as I do – it’s certainly been expanding my (intellectual?) horizons.
http://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers

BTW – @Gary L
At the orders of magnitude of these global forcings, measurement of anthropogenic CO2 effect cannot even rise above the signal to noise ratio. And CO2 is NOT a “pollutant”. I’m stunned at the hubris implied in the fantasy that we, humanity as a whole, have any but the most incidental and marginal effect on the planet’s weather. Climate sensitivity is LOW regards CO2, while water (vapour) and electricity (clouds) are major and central climatological drivers and the homeostasis of global temperatures is nonpareil.
PLEASE, investigate ENSO (which is NOT ‘cyclical’ despite being termed an ‘oscillation’) before pronouncing on what is, let alone how works, climate. Here’s a nice little 3D animation of the process from NOAA: –
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/joseph.barsugli/anim.html
It’s being driven principally by that Electric Arc-Light in the sky.
When you’ve digested the SCALE of this phenomena, re-evaluate your assumption that an increase of some 150 parts/per million of CO2 (from ~250/ppm in 1880 to 390/ppm today) has any signicant bearing on world temperatures.

Buster February 12, 2013 at 10:46 am

Tiburon, now we’re really talking!
A study of the ‘electric universe’ no doubt demonstrates that ‘the Earth is flat’ mentality is alive & kicking, & dominating mainstream science. It’s all part of the prison for the Sheeple, since understanding of the true nature of the universe can lead to all sorts of freedoms from vested interests of control. As Tesla’s experience showed, the only progress allowed is that which is under the control of TPTB. The understanding of this subject & of all other things that make up the grand scheme of things that is our world structure of control, are probably inevitably leading to the lawless Powerz being revealed. But when the curtain finally comes down, revealing the prison, things will also likely get ugly.

gary leibowitz February 13, 2013 at 3:58 am

I find it peculiar that when science gets in your way you declare some biased liberal agenda. Dismiss the last 4 stock market years as if it didn’t double, but guess what, no matter how you slice it it did. Dismiss science and the overwhelming evidence that man is doing damage to this planet in this very short geological term. In fact the amount of damage in such a short period is spectacular. I hope you don’t like fish. Forget the DDT, mercury levels, and other harmful toxins found on them. In 30 or so years, at the rate we are harvesting fish, there will be no ocean (free water) fish to be found. I know you will find this funny but the science is there. You can ignore the science but not the outcome. Ever wonder why Tilapia became such an ever present staple menu in restaurants? Ten years ago no one heard of it. Can you guess why? In 30 years you will have a choice of brand farmed fisheries. Just like wine. Imagine picking the best tasting fish from a specific farm.

mava February 12, 2013 at 6:40 am

Gary,
Funny you mention myopic vision, because you certainly are being myopic on this subject.

John Jay is exactly correct. In everything he said in the article. I am not normally supporting JJ, but according to my rules, when a man is right he is right, and there is no way around that but to acknowledge.

What you are doing, Gary, is pointing to more than way that the government used to hide the effects of monetary inflation, so that it doesn’t show up where is it so commonly expected, – in nominal increases in prices. However, you are using those to somehow discount what JJ is saying.

Yes, we are ravaged by inflation. To see how much are we ravaged, we need to stop the government services, remove outrageously low interest rates, have everybody actually BUY the things they “lease”, place American workers where Mexicans struggle for low wages, and finally, pay what it really takes to buy those real 100% cotton socks that we can’t even afford to produce anymore. In other words, we would need to remove the substitutions of cheaper goods and labor, and stop the welfare factors. That done, you will very quickly realize, how much damage had been done to good ole USA, when compared apples to apples.

And, btw, so that you know, there is no man-made global warming, JJ is absolutely, precisely correct on that too. But, once we switch to the “renewable” energy, just you watch (that has been and is my forecast), the weather will definitely go to smitzerines and I haven’t seen a single soul ever mentioning exactly what is the connection.

John Jay February 12, 2013 at 3:40 pm

Here are some nice maps of past glaciation showing different views of the last global ice maximum 18,000 years ago for North America, Europe, and a global view.
Link:http://iceagenow.com/Ice-Age_Maps.htm

As for Inflation and Economics Max Kaiser’s last show had an interesting take on our situation.
He compared CB money creation to the “Cargo Cult” of natives in the Pacific during WWII.
He thinks the CBs are trying to conjure up a productive economy by hitting the “Print” button over and over.
Confusing money/debt creation with factories actually producing shoes, tires, clothes etc. that drive a functional economy.
All that produces is Inflation.
Just as futile as natives building fake DC-3s out in the jungle in the hopes of attracting the real thing full of useful food and clothing.
A very good analogy.

Tiburon February 12, 2013 at 8:41 pm

My link above to the ENSO 3D animation is not working – apparently the NOAA Earth Sciences Research Laboratory entire Physical Sciences Division (PSD) site is down – maintenance or overcapacity (?). Nice.
Anyway, if interested one can check it later or tomorrow.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso
and look for the 3D link on the page.
A very approachable explanation of ENSO with numerous graphs, illustrations and animations is easily found online through the work (and e-book, very affordable, buy it if you support private retired researchers) of Bob Tisdale
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/
or find his stuff on YouTube in several videos

gary leibowitz February 13, 2013 at 4:14 am

On gloal warming and scientific consensus, please read the following, extracted from an article.

=======================================The existence of an overwhelming consensus among climate scientists about global warming was demonstrated scientifically in a 2004 article published in Science by Professor Naomi Oreskes of U.C. San Diego. She randomly selected 928 articles published in the peer-reviewed scientific literature that contained the words “global climate change.” 75% of these articles dealt either directly or indirectly with recent climate changes and their causes, and all of these — 100% — supported the view that recent climate changes are caused primarily by human activities. None of the 928 articles disagreed with this consensus position. Dr. Oreskes has an Op-Ed piece in the Washington Post discussing this issue.

A wide variety of evidence indicates that the increase in global temperatures since 1800 are the result of human activities, primarily the release of CO2 from burning oil, coal, natural gas, and forests. The carbon dioxide levels today are higher than they have been at any time in the past 450,000 years. This suggests that this is more than just a natural process.

gary leibowitz February 13, 2013 at 6:20 am

CO2 levels highest in 450,000 years. 100 % of 928 randomly selected scientific articles on global warming declaring its cause is currently human.

Never mind! Not enough proof for this bunch.

Tiburon February 13, 2013 at 4:46 pm

Dear Gary,
About that overwhelming 97-98% number of scientists that say there is a climate consensus…(very nice and easily understandable graph of the results – out of 10,257 surveys (2 min. to complete), sent out, 3,146 were returned, and 77 actually answered the question to which you are referring. Of them, 75 said “Yes – definitely anthropogenic by CO2″.
That’s your ‘overwhelming consensus’, Gary.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/18/about-that-overwhelming-98-number-of-scientists-consensus/
Devil is in the details, y’see.
Gary, I think you are misunderstanding the issue. While only a minority of scientists posit that CO2 has zero effect (I take them seriously, but aren’t sure at my level of understanding), the ‘overwhelming majority’ accept the THEORY that it has some effect – just that it is minor, or not really measurable, being so small, at our level of observation in the early part of the 21st Century. Signal to noise ratio, y’see.
There are far more eligible natural forcing candidates to be investigated before we commit world economic suicide with carbon tax, carbon credit regimes and/or carbon capture.
However, as Mava points out, the ‘overwhelming majority’ of funding directed through Universities and Research Institutions goes exclusively to research supporting the paradigm – “Denier Scientists”, researchers not ‘toe-ing the line’ of the “consensus”, are not only not funded, but risk their careers (data on request).
I think everyone is going to be getting a very big surprise in the near future on these issues, especially as NASA and numerous other mainstream climate and meteorology institutions are apparently making a ’stealth retreat’ from the CO2 demon-gas position, in face of hard science and observational data about Solar and Ceselestial influences on atmosphere, seismology, IR absorption profiles, cloud formation, etc etc etc.
There are links above in this thread if you want to explore and be at the leading edge of a lay understanding of the issues.

And Gary, regards CO2 levels in pre-history (ie Younger Dryas, Eocene, etc) it’s easy to ‘get lost in the weeds’. Certainly we’ve increased CO2 in the last 100 years. So What? CO2 has been at many 1000’s of parts per million in the Earth’s past, and the planet didn’t self-combust, irrespective of whether it leads or follows global temperature.
I sincerely encourage you to read this post at WUWT – not even follow all the links – and then come back here and, with a straight face, say we remotely understand how the Earth’s Climate works. The post isn’t short, but pretty comprehensive, from about a year ago so relatively up-to-date and ’state of art’ with the science.
Actually, Gary, you don’t even have to READ the post, just open it, and then scroll down the page scanning the subject headings till you get to the commentary thread. Then come back and tell us that “Anthropogenic CO2 is driving climate – the ‘Science is Settled’”
OK?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/21/the-ridiculousness-continues-climate-complexity-compiled/

mava February 13, 2013 at 6:59 am

Gary, you do know the reason all these scientists are getting hired, right? It is the same deal as with university professors, and economists, especially.

Now, this may appear to be an attempt to ad-hominem your proof, but my point is slightly different.

I maintain, that the publicly-given definition of ad-hominem is omitting an entire half of the fallacy! Not only is it wrong to discount a message because the messenger was dragged thru dirt, but it is equally wrong to trust the message just because the messenger is holding somewhat a good status, and for the same reasons, – there is no connection between the message and the messenger!

So, you see? JJ comes out with the maps, and you come out with something that someone else thought someone else had been meaning to imply. Hearsay.

I especially like your statement: “overwhelming consensus among climate scientists”. This is designed to make me discount everything I myself know or understand, because, supposedly, there is this big scary bunch in complete consensus.

I seem to remember how all the engineers and architects were in an “overwhelming consensus” with regards to the true causes of 9/11. As it turned out later, someone just blurted that out, without actually bothering to establish that there was the consensus.

And there wasn’t. Apparently, there are more than 1700 of those “kookoo” Architects and Engineers. Just plain stupid, I guess, wonder how they stay in business knowing less than the 9-11 commission about engineering. http://www.ae911truth.org/

Point is, I am sure you understand, that only facts matter. Not the words of “overwhelming consensus”.

John Jay February 13, 2013 at 4:10 pm

mava,
Thank you for the kind words.
Evidence like those maps is why they have changed the name of the scam to “Climate Change” from “Global Warming”.
The POTUS covered “Climate Change” in his speech last night.
So any weather that is not 70 degrees with a nice breeze is “Climate Change”, and it’s “Your Fault” and you must be taxed as your punishment.
To show how ignorant the MSM reporters are about even basic science, here is an example:

“CNN anchor Deb Feyerick asked Saturday afternoon if an approaching asteroid, which will pass by Earth on February 15, “is an example of, perhaps, global warming?” Just to prove I am not making this up, here is the clip – watch the expression of the science guy when she asks the question, that is priceless.”

Here is a link with a video of the event:
http://tinyurl.com/dy62z2h

We have entered the Dark Ages again it would seem!

casey-mudville February 13, 2013 at 3:29 pm

My little anecdote… I like canned anchovy filets. They were 99 cents two years ago, now up to $1.39 at the same store. Organic wheat and rye berries are up the past two years at Whole Foods. Grind to make bread here. I am growing vegetables for the first time in a while and have lots of mango, avocado, guava, citrus and other fruit trees coming along. Thus I am converting more (dreaded) CO2 into oxygen than phony greenies like Al Gore ever do. He can buy some carbon offsets from me.

I am thinking of getting a young relative Rice University 2013 graduate a few 5 or 10 ounce silver bars from Apmex. For graduation present. Anyone say yea or nay on this?

mava February 13, 2013 at 4:34 pm

Funny video, thank you.
“We have entered the Dark Ages again it would seem!”

I would agree. There was always a reason to keep the people reasonably dumb, but, on the other hand, things needed to be done. These days, you no longer need everybody to be able. Few scientists and engineers with their robots will manage the production. The rest, can be safely returned to the dark ages.

gary leibowitz February 13, 2013 at 5:49 pm

You discard science and scientists without any counter argument other than using your own imagination. I guess this esteemed group with above average intelligence and memory believes emotional bias is proof enough. You construct a world where you first build the foundational rules and follow them to completion. Even after the world has been built, and has major flaws, you conclude the foundational rules were not flawed, but rather a mysterious malevolent outside influence caused the structure to be faulty. With this type of logic it is impossible to get through.

If you would just look at the science behind the conclusions there is no way you can destroy this evidence. Science and scientific study is not absolute proof, but it is the best means to achieve understanding of this world. You dismiss them by using unrelated anecdotal evidence.

You are playing a shell game, just as you claim all governments do. Is the individual any different than the collective governments? Do you not see the similarities in your arguments? What it really comes down to is how you view the world. A pessimist with distrust of all, would always take the opposite side of any government actions. To start out believing government rule is evil makes any easy case to reinforce that belief. All you have to do is look at the failures and conveniently ignore all else. To dismiss global warming and all the evidence stacked in its favor is a miraculous testiment to human nature. We are a hard-wired emotionally biased bunch that is still young on the evolutionary scale. I hope we have the opportunity to develop our true potential. My biggest fear is that our ancestral emotional baggage will destroy us before we break the threshhold.

John Jay February 13, 2013 at 8:09 pm

Gary,
I am not in favor of paying a tax to attempt to control 20,000 year glacial cycles, the sun coming up, the tides going up and down, or a total eclipse of the sun.
I can predict all those things with certainty.

When was the last time any legislation came out of DC that was not written by a lobbyist to make his client money?

Why does Congress pass 1,000 page pieces of legislation that they have not read?

Did our Army find any WMDs in Iraq to justify a trillion war expense?

Why can Congress get public feedback 100 to 1 against TARP, and they pass it anyway, after they are threatened with “Martial Law” by the big banks?

Why does Nancy Pelosi think the 1st Amendment is about the Right to Bear Arms, and that we do not have a “Spending Problem”?
http://michellemalkin.com/2013/02/10/constitutional-scholar-nancy-pelosi/

Why does the Fed need to constantly buy more and more of the Treasury paper and MBS paper issued?

Of course I have no faith in the Government.
Because there is plenty of evidence to support that position.

Ice sheets come and go.
The Sahara Desert goes from grasslands to desert on a long cycle.
Every 60 or 100 million years an asteroid impact wipes out a good portion of life, but then species fill in the gaps over millions of years.
None of those things are caused by or influenced by humanity.
Ocean pollution however is man made, and DC is not legislating replacement of crude oil based fuels and plastics with something else are they?
They ignore the greatest threat to us all because big oil fills their pockets with money.
That is the prime directive in DC.
Money for them and their bosses.
With some food stamps, Section 8 housing, and cell phones thrown to the mob to buy votes.
If I see any progress towards restoring the Republic, I will be the first to post it here.
No one would love to see change more than I would!

Tiburon February 13, 2013 at 9:07 pm

Gary Leibowitz –
By the time stamp on your last post, you should have been able to see my reply up-thread.
I don’t want to be precipitate in ‘judgement’ (never a good idea at any time – for that matter even ‘judging others’ altogether is of doubtful benefit, IMHO. ‘Discernment’ now, that’s another matter)
What you are accusing others here of doing, is a nearly precise inversion of the reality – any neutral observer would conclude your opponents are bringing DATA to the debate, (granted, along with ‘opinion’ – allowable in this context, as it is for you), while you’ve presented none except for the points you mentioned above regards ‘consensus’, which I believe I can (humbly?) say I’ve brought DATA that thoroughly and comprehensively contradicts your assertions.
I’ll tender you ‘benefit of the doubt’ and allow you time to accept my friendly ‘challenge’. Visit the post I’ve linked at the bottom of my reply to your post upthread; don’t READ it, nor follow the dozens of links (unless so inclined) – just scroll down and scan the chapter and subject headings, and then return here and tell us again “the science is settled”, ’should you dare’ ;-) .
The pertinent link, again: –
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/21/the-ridiculousness-continues-climate-complexity-compiled/

gary leibowitz February 13, 2013 at 11:46 pm

All I ask is for anyone to actually read a scientific article from a climate scientist. 99 percent agree on the conclusions. Verify the source, such as Scientific America to determine if there is any bias or misrepresentation. In other words either read the actual article, scientific data, or the conclusions found from these articles. There have been many core sample studies recently from may regions in the world. I will not give you one since that would imply bias on my part.
Just Google away.

I can find blogs and sites that give many reasons why there are visited beings from other planets. Why the earth is only 10,000 years old. Not interested in finding sources to prove my point. I have no point. I want the best minds giving me the best scientific theory.

Verify the source of the article. The person writing it, the scientific data, and the scientific community behind it.

If governments are intent on doing harm to it’s citizens, as some attest to, than surely we are less advantaged now than any prior decade before us. Surely a government in power for hundreds, or thousands of years, has to produce ever increased hardships. Are you really willing to state this is so? Being influenced by power and citizen complacency is one thing, but to suggest all governments aim and end result is to do harm is absurd.

In closing I suggest you either pick and chose your reinforced beliefs, or blindly research the subject and come to a collective conclusion. You can still believe in the pre-Capernicus doctrine using theologians interpretation from the mouth of the all mightly, or you can allow scientific verifiable studies to be your guide. Your choice. Einstein’s theories took many decades to prove out. It was however embraced by the majority of scientists early on. Once we were able to delve into the microscopic world his theories had to be modified. Quantum mechanics emerged much to the disbelief of Einstein himself. In the macro world Einstein’s laws still rule today. I do not bind myself to any theory, but I must use the “collective” word from scientists to guide my path. I do not place my knowledge as equal, therefore I bow to others that have better skill.

gary leibowitz February 14, 2013 at 12:01 am

The people trying to discredit my philosophy are the same ones that told me 14 months ago we would never have a “propped up” stock market and economy lasting over 1 year. I suggested we were in a
“sweet spot” where we would see accelerated earnings
and a stock market not yet near its top. I heard so many “proven” arguments that it was impossible. I can see why these same people insist the last 14 months was a mirage, where an all powerful group of people managed to fool everyone. Well I can’t fight such unorthodox conclusions, nor can I accept them. I am a person of logic; my 35 years as a computer programmer has created a rigid way of seeing the world. Right or wrong I need scientific backing and some rudament understanding of these laws to accept its conclusions. There may well be ghosts roaming this earth, but for now I must decline its existence.

Tiburon February 14, 2013 at 2:06 am

Wow Gary! (may I call you Gary?)
I see we’re not talking about CAWG anymore – as I see no reference to my not-altogether-unserious challenge to you to apprise yourself of the scope of uncertainty in Climate Science and (gracefully?) join us all in “I don’t know”.
However I do see you asking for ’scientific references’, but must assume you are not addressing me, as my linked post at WUWT has ~+100 links to actual, peer-reviewed, ’state-of-understanding’ (vs. “state of fear”) papers blowing holes big enough to drive transport trucks through in the THEORY that CO2 is a significant driver (forcing) of World Climate.
Thus, to be crystal clear – 100’s of linked papers to that effect – exactly what you claim no one is bringing to the table.
Add to this these facts: –
– No global temp rise for 16 years, while CO2 continues to rise.
– NASA admitting an unrecognized and as yet not understood link between solar effects (NOT just TOA-TSI – top of atmosphere-total solar irradiance) and world temp and climate.
– The UN-IPCC itself, in ARP-5, admitting the same (re:solar effects); reversing itself on attribution as to “extreme weather events” and further admitting that the numerous COMPUTER MODELS (sorry Gary, I get that you’re an experienced computer programmer) have NO SKILL in modeling climate as every single one of their projections are well outside that bounds of uncertainty (higher) than what real world observations has revealed.

I am happy to give you links on request to the links, peer-reviewed papers, and analysis that “proves” these statements, from DATA (that everyone agrees upon).
Gary, I believe very much in ‘freedom of religion’, as long as ‘the others” practice does not impinge on my freedoms (as some are want to do). I see no harm if you wish to be a Global Warming Theist, but do see harm if your ideas, (baseless, and to me a Cult), are imposed on the rest of us.

And finally, to attempt to reflect back to you some of your accusations: – CAN you bring ONE example of how your hypothesis that CO2 is a significant forcing in world temperatures, can be Falsified? Because, y’know, if you can’t, and no one else can either, then it’s really not even a THEORY, scientifically-speaking, it’s just story-telling. (computer modeling virtual reality, more precisely)

Anyway, this is of course not a Climate site, but I guess we got off on to it – reasonably I guess since “They” are going to try and save the carbon trade and ram another stealth tax down our collective throats.

You say: –

“If governments are intent on doing harm to it’s citizens, as some attest to, than surely we are less advantaged now than any prior decade before us. Surely a government in power for hundreds, or thousands of years, has to produce ever increased hardships. Are you really willing to state this is so? Being influenced by power and citizen complacency is one thing, but to suggest all governments aim and end result is to do harm is absurd.”

Not to fix too long of an optic (which might result in us looking down the wrong end of a telescope), taking the last 100 years – is it not a FACT, y’know, DATA, – that today’s $US is, compared with an artificial metric of 100% value in 1913, worth today only some $0.03? Can we not agree that this decimation of the prime mechanism whereby society can preserve its’ labour value, has left us less advantaged than our forebearers?
On this point I rest my case, much better argued by other commentators, notably JJ himself, upthread.

As to “an all powerful group of people manag(ing) to fool everyone” – one doesn’t actually have to descend (or ascend) into conspiracy theory to recognize what is being created by the PTB. They are doing it in plain sight, with apparently no fear of nor likelihood of personal consequence (ie Free Corzine! – not funny of course).
Given the unfathomable numbers involved in ‘monetary stimulation’, literally astronomical numbers, maintaining a belief in some underlying, robust basis for elevation of the markets generally, that has any equivalent basis in fundamentals within the economy as a whole, is a true example of belief in ‘ghosts roaming this earth’.

Think ‘the banality of evil’ Gary – some in positions of authority believe they’re doing ‘G-d’s Work’, and I’m sure most sleep quite well at night. As you say, there’s little difference between the failures and foibles of the individual and society-writ-large. But as the saying goes, ‘power corrupts, and absolute power absolutely’ – and Governments don’t need to have INTENTION to be predatory on their populations – it is in their very nature in name of ’self-preservation’ so-to-speak, as it is in each and every one of us, restrained only, in our case, by our individual moral compasses, while in Governments’ case, not at all. Unless you wish to argue that Governments have ‘a conscience’.
Waiting.

Oregon February 14, 2013 at 3:05 am

Nice post Tiburon. Thanks for taking the time.

gary leibowitz February 14, 2013 at 4:00 am

I concur that power and unchecked control of that power does corrupt, just as it does to the individual. It is cyclical. As the outragous 20’s came and went, so too has the strict rules set up after. Human nature, whether individual or group (government), are pawns to checks and balances. Discarded rules result in individual greed run amok. We have not advanced as a species enough to place the good of all above our own happiness. We as a government know this to be true and have placed rules to restrict the temptations. Once complacency takes hold these rules also become a non-issue.

There is no one answer to a perfect society. To abolish all form of government is total anarchy and not one I relish ever happening.

gary leibowitz February 14, 2013 at 6:35 am

The dollar of 1913 is now worth 3 cents. I don’t disagree. Do you equate that figure to conclude we are living in squalor? Once again it just doesn’t make any comparative sense? Please look at the real world. How about the one you know; people of your equal relating to economic and cutural background. Are YOU really that displaced, living in depravity? Is todays society worse off than in 1913? Really? Do you know what percentage of Americans were considered middle class then? What was the wages compared to today in terms of buying power? Medical and leisure costs? Sorry but our health and longevity as Americans have far exceeded any comparisons. Perhaps you will show me the 1 percent of sociologist and economists that make the same conclusions you make, but I’ll stick with the majority. Unless you really think yours is the majority?

gary leibowitz February 14, 2013 at 3:46 am

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus-intermediate.htm

Please stop wasting my time. This was published in 2009 confirming my prior 2004 article. 97.5 percent of climatologist believe there is a human cause to current climate change. 97.5 percent. If that aint consensus I don’t know what is. I don’t believe this board has 97.5 percent concensus on anything. Given the fact that this blog is geared towards fringe explanations I find that number astonishing. Who has 97.5 percent approval?

Yes anyone and everyone can interpret data in a biased manner. Take the last 4 years in the stock market as an example. Your premise is that government manipulation and outright control of the market prevented a steep fall. You conclude that the all-powerfull government not only manipulated rates, they manufactured fake housing data, and allowed corporations from all segments of the industry to fake their earnings. My premise, a much more outragous interpretation, is that government intervention allowed the markets time to heal. Yes that means keeping rates low and supporting banks. The interesting part of all this is that we know what the governments did to support the world economies. It was not covert, as some would have you believe. No hidden manipulation. The retribution “brim and firestone” people complain their has been no punishment, as if that was a prerequisite to healing. Fairness, and making the world whole, are utopian concepts. In the real world we live in ambiguity. I bet my money on “known” entities, not some abstract concept that all is evil. The stock market obviously has agreed with my interpretation. I also believe real verifiable data will be present to show why we are about to top out. If that data fails to materialize I will change my time line for the top.

Tiburon February 14, 2013 at 4:22 pm

The three first comments appended to your link, Gary: -
Amazingly not censured by the mods at SkS (though admittedly debated further down the thread). They make the points better than I would (and I got to keep the eye on the ball regards ‘bringing home the (kosher) bacon’, sorry – not running from the discussion. I’ll check back, hopefully, but no disrespect intended.
I think you and I will have to admit we’re both violating a pretty important rule of debate in even discussing this issue – Argumentum ad populum.

As I said earlier, I believe there’s going to be an amazing ’shake-up’ in our understanding of climate, in the near future, and it’s going to come from cutting edge research in regards the Electric Sun.
Though maybe best idea is expressed by Kurt Russell in the last line from The Thing (1982), as they wait for the Antarctic winter dark (and -60C): -
“Why don’t we just wait here for a little while. See what happens.”

The first 3 comments: –
roverdc at 17:32 PM on 27 September, 2007
Concensus only has meaning if there is no pressure to conform in either direction. In the climate debate this is extremely far from being true. How far could we reasonably expect a questioner to go in an IPCC panel when that instantly collects a denialist label and probably guarantees a dead end to even the most able career? In the current climate it is reasonable to assume the dissent camp is at least ten times the admitted size. I know that as an admittedly uninformed questioner I get some pretty vitriolic responses from the eco faithful.
Wondering Aloud at 06:54 AM on 10 November, 2007
Roverdc hits the nail on the head. To say there is bias in the science at this point is a wild understatement. What the public hears is claims that “all scientists except a few kooks agree that catastrophic global warming is immenent and caused by your car.”. This is what they think you mean by consensus.

Is it safe to say the real consensus is closer to the view of those so called deniers in the National Post series or to the alarmist panic that is being widely circulated through things like “An Inconvenient Truth”?
Will Nitschke (www.capitaloffice.com.au) at 16:22 PM on 21 December, 2007
The fact that there are so many Academies of Science endorsing the global warming position is probably the strongest argument for supporting it. The question to ask is how mature is this field? If the answer is ‘very mature’ then this type of support has high credibility. If the answer is ‘immature’ then it’s significance is considerably less.

Here is a link to US Senate Committee on the Environment that lists in detail 400 scientists who disagree with the anthropomorphic global warming hypothesis:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport

That there are so many when we repeatedly hear on the news and radio that the actual number of dissenters is ‘miniscule’ will have the tendency to turn believers into sceptics.

I would also feel more confident if the ‘hockey stick’ graphics that predict rapid change and global catastrophe would not all be linked back to a small handful of researchers and students who work together and presumably have the same preconceptions and modus operandi. If there are no ‘hockey sticks’ then the small increase in global temperature over the last century does not statistically look different from what one would expect from natural variation. “

gary leibowitz February 14, 2013 at 4:11 am

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-13/fat-cat-pay-makes-swiss-so-mad-ceo-salaries-facing-national-vote.html

Sorry for my hogging this blog but there is an interesting article showing the backlash to the decades of greed and excesses. It is happening in Swizerland of all places. A March 3rd referendum on whether executive pay should be set by shareholders. The lobby groups are frantic to prevent this. We shall see. If it passes, I believe it will cause a tidal wave of change.

Now this is an historic moment!

Buster February 14, 2013 at 1:05 pm

“If you have this kind of limitation on executive pay, why should an American company put their European headquarters into Switzerland,” Philip Mosimann, CEO of Bucher Industries AG, a Swiss maker of street sweepers with a market valuation of 2.1 billion francs ($2.3 billion), said in an interview. “They would leave. I’m certain of that.”

,,,,and let’s hope they don’t come back!
A study of the economic effect of the City of London (one of the three tax free states that form the foundation of the covert ‘Empire of the City’) on the UK, recently found that it had very doubtful real value. When the full implications of the inherent fraud & inflation etc are taken into account the effects are quite simply negative. There are countless people unable to afford homes where they work due to unjust financial engineering & many areas where local people are forced to move away while local homes lay empty as holiday or investment ”property” for the few beneficiaries of this whole rotten illusion of wealth creation.
I know good people who have built many homes all their lives, now unable to afford even one.
Taking the numbers out of the argument & looking at the plain reality shows the real state of affairs. It’s one bloody great scam from start to finish & an indictment on the way things are run & on those responsible for it. They may stand up on their platforms & eloquently reel off some script writers crap (obama-take note if you’re reading) to fool those Sheeple who still believe that any of the structures that run (or ruin) the Earth are honorable in their intentions, but I’m afraid a quick check of the pulse of the masses shows that the Sheeple just aren’t buying it.
Whatever country you go to, blog you read or man in the street you talk, it seems that they’ve had enough of the B/S.
Yes their is change coming, big change, but we’re not gonna’ be out of the woods. Just more twists & turns, struggle, shocks & surprises for everyone as far as I can see.

Tiburon February 14, 2013 at 4:49 pm

I approve the sentiments, Buster… and good points about the ‘negative economic effects’ of the inherent frauds and excesses.

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