Monday, March 11, 2013

Hidden Pivots aside, the futures look like they're itching to dip below the trendline yet again just to screw with traders' heads.  The April contract definitely knows that the trendline is there, which is to say the support is all-too-widely observed. This situation could reward 'camo' tactics nonetheless, since we have the means to leverage any ups and downs that happen to take the form of impulse legs. I'd suggest looking for them on the 30-minute chart or less, but doing the actual trade on the 1-   or the 3-minute in order to hold theoretical risk below 0.60 per contract.  FYI, on the weekly chart the trendline comes in around 1568.

A while back, I suggested taking Japan at its word when some finance minister said 0.95 sounded like a realistic target.  Although a nasty rally intervened in late February, the destruction of the yen has resumed in earnest and now bids fair to achieve a minimum 1.0255 over the near term. This is notwithstanding serious and determined competition from, among others, Switzerland.  The clarity of this target is such that I'll recommend bottom-fishing using camouflage on the 5-minute chart of less. If you fill please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish tracking guidance. 

A long-term rally target at 1535.25 has been obliterated with last week's surge, having been surpassed by a decisive 12.50 points. We'll keep a close eye on things just to make sure it's no bull trap, but the evidence so far suggests that significantly higher highs lie ahead. A logical target for now is the 1624.75 Hidden Pivot resistance shown.  Although this ignores several ABC patterns of larger degree, it gives us a precise number to shoot for that will remain viable no matter what the bigger picture might say.  A stall at its midpoint sibling, 1551.00, would corroborate this.